NaraVara's recent activity
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentI looked into it and apparently it was only the age thing. The Natural Born bit still permitted Hamilton based on what you said, and was designed to avoid having some random person from a foreign...I looked into it and apparently it was only the age thing. The Natural Born bit still permitted Hamilton based on what you said, and was designed to avoid having some random person from a foreign government becoming Commander in Chief of the Army and using it to undermine the Republic. I suppose at the time, when large chartered corporations were doing basically exactly that in the East Indies, that was a more substantive fear.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentNothing about this article is definitive and all of it is based on over-interpreting very minor, offhanded comments that are delivered via hearsay from mostly anonymous sources. With the benefit...December 2019: Biden signals to aides that he would serve only a single term
Nothing about this article is definitive and all of it is based on over-interpreting very minor, offhanded comments that are delivered via hearsay from mostly anonymous sources. With the benefit of hindsight I think we should take this as evidence for the political press being gossipy drama queens who don’t actually practice good journalistic standards. They’re just blithely publishing rumors, big chunks of which they’re just making up to string a narrative together.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentBill Clinton endorsed though. So that basically just leaves Jimmy Carter and Obama of the living Democrats who haven’t. I’m hoping it’s part of a plan to extend her news cycle to wait until the...Bill Clinton endorsed though. So that basically just leaves Jimmy Carter and Obama of the living Democrats who haven’t. I’m hoping it’s part of a plan to extend her news cycle to wait until the energy starts to dissipate to give it another boost. If he actually is on the “contested convention” train I’m going to be sorely disappointed in him, and it will make it clear why his Presidency was such a downticket disaster. He doesn’t seem very good at helping anyone get elected but himself.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentThat’s part of a whole system wherein voters evidently didn’t care about candidate’s ages. If they cared more we wouldn’t have a gerontocratic senate and primary contests tilted in favor of people...That’s part of a whole system wherein voters evidently didn’t care about candidate’s ages. If they cared more we wouldn’t have a gerontocratic senate and primary contests tilted in favor of people who have been around for ages.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentSupposedly that and the “natural born citizen” bits were specifically there to prevent Alexander Hamilton from being made the first President. He’d have been 32 when the Constitution was signed,...Supposedly that and the “natural born citizen” bits were specifically there to prevent Alexander Hamilton from being made the first President. He’d have been 32 when the Constitution was signed, and it wasn’t really clear at the time that Washington would have accepted the position if it was offered.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentNo caps. If age is an issue for voters then voters should simply not vote for overly old candidates. What’s the point in binding their choices in this way?No caps. If age is an issue for voters then voters should simply not vote for overly old candidates. What’s the point in binding their choices in this way?
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara (edited )Link ParentThere are no party bosses to be making these decisions. There used to be, but people got mad about corrupt insiders picking winners and losers in smoke filled rooms and reformed the system to do...There needs to be a serious house cleaning because at the bare minimum the people who are making the strategic decisions are abhorrently fucking bad at it.
There are no party bosses to be making these decisions. There used to be, but people got mad about corrupt insiders picking winners and losers in smoke filled rooms and reformed the system to do away with them. Now it’s an open process where people who want to run independently line up funding and then run in primaries and caucuses. Thats it. That’s the strategy. There’s nobody to decide who should run or who to groom or whatever. If you want new blood in a seat, you primary them. If you think the speakership should be in someone else’s hands you compete for the seat.
All the DNC and DCCC and DSCC do is basically function as event planners and a Rolodex of donors and seasoned staff and consultants. They have no decision making powers to pick who runs and, whenever they do exercise what little influence they have people get riotously angry with them and accuse them of rigging the contest against their favored candidates.
The only part that isn’t in the open is them having to line up funding and the juice to hire experienced staff who know what they’re doing. Nobody ran this time because it’s basically impossible to defeat an incumbent President in a primary so they saved their resources for a more competitive open race.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentThere are no “Dems” with any authority to be making decisions about who to run or who to groom or whatever else. This all happens in primaries and it’s mostly out in the open.There are no “Dems” with any authority to be making decisions about who to run or who to groom or whatever else. This all happens in primaries and it’s mostly out in the open.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentThis lends credence to my theory that he’s rigging the game for Harris on the way out to prevent the donor faction from creating an open convention clusterfuck. Drop the news on a weekend when the...This lends credence to my theory that he’s rigging the game for Harris on the way out to prevent the donor faction from creating an open convention clusterfuck.
Drop the news on a weekend when the PR flacks and lobbyists are distracted. Hit em right after church when their assistants are all drunk on bottomless mimosas.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentThe traffic isn’t that great though. People who B post on Mastodon or BlueSky claim there’s a lot more actual engagement (as in not bots or low value troll posters) on those despite the numbers. I...The traffic isn’t that great though. People who B post on Mastodon or BlueSky claim there’s a lot more actual engagement (as in not bots or low value troll posters) on those despite the numbers.
I think Twitter has a problem where journalists are all on it so it’s like a mini social network just for them even as it increasingly turns into a full-time Nazi rally all baiting them.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
NaraVara (edited )Link ParentI half suspect the Covid was just an excuse to cloister himself so he could plot his move. According to AOC the resistance to leaving was partly because the donor backed centrists trying to push...I half suspect the Covid was just an excuse to cloister himself so he could plot his move. According to AOC the resistance to leaving was partly because the donor backed centrists trying to push him out had no plan for the day after and were trying to do some contrivance to bypass Harris.
So I think a lot of phone calls had to be made to line the party up behind Harris before he dropped to outmaneuver them. Given Harris’ fundraising haul and the fact that every potential rival has either endorsed her or said they aren’t running there’s no realistic path for anything else but a joke candidate like Manchin or Marianne Williamson. Donors BTFO.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentEvery other D at the top of the ticket does similarly though, even when adjusted for name ID. And that “name ID adjustment” involves being introduced with a paragraph of praise so they have a...This is an argument for replacing Biden. In an environment where every other D is doing well, Biden is behind, sometimes by 7+ points compared to down ballot candidates.
Every other D at the top of the ticket does similarly though, even when adjusted for name ID. And that “name ID adjustment” involves being introduced with a paragraph of praise so they have a significant advantage in those polls.
Ultimately for me, where there's smoke, there is fire. We wouldn't be at a spot where pretty much every major D is working behind the scenes to convince Biden to step down otherwise.
With political media there often is nothing there but smoke. This “where there’s smoke there’s fire” phrase was something I heard many times regarding the Swiftboat Vets for Truth ads, and it’s just a framework for gullibility and credulousness.
People have eyes, you guys.
People’s eyes only look where the media is pointing. And the media points where your anxiety spikes.
or an economy that, despite being alright, has horrendous 'vibes' is not a great plan.
The economy is good enough to be worth 10 points by itself. It’s more than “alright.”
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentThat’s just what being down by 2 translates to in swing states. If he made that up to be up by two his state level polling would shift dramatically as well. The down ballot senate races are...That’s just what being down by 2 translates to in swing states. If he made that up to be up by two his state level polling would shift dramatically as well.
The down ballot senate races are strongly D leaning and there remain lots of undecideds so there is a strong argument to be made that as economic outlooks improve and rates cut the undecideds will drift back and commit.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentI think he means in 2024 where Trump ran against DeSantis and Haley. Incidentally if the Republicans had picked either of them they’d be coasting to win in a landslide. Instead they picked a...They absolutely did not have a primary in 2020. Incumbent parties do not generally have people run against the incumbent for the Presidency.
I think he means in 2024 where Trump ran against DeSantis and Haley.
Incidentally if the Republicans had picked either of them they’d be coasting to win in a landslide. Instead they picked a convicted felon with severely degraded brain functions who is running for President solely to avoid going to prison and the media wants to cast no light on this with the public. And not only that, but the Democratic Party has decided to give up on pounding that argument and focused their fire on tanking their own candidate instead.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara (edited )Link ParentHonestly the intensity of people’s feelings on this on Vichy Twitter are so different from what I see on BlueSky or Mastodon or even Threads. I think Twitter itself is overstuffed with these...Honestly the intensity of people’s feelings on this on Vichy Twitter are so different from what I see on BlueSky or Mastodon or even Threads. I think Twitter itself is overstuffed with these journalism/media insiders and the algorithm is weighted to Elon’s preferences that’s really geared to get people wound up.
Elsewhere it seems like most people are just anxious about having a path forward instead of a yolo flipping of the apple cart. Circling wagons around Biden or replacing him matters less than just shutting the hell up and moving forward.
One thing to note from the 2020 primary is that he was discounted early on, but his campaign was the least Twitter brained of everyone which led to a chronic underestimation of his strength of Black and older voters that coasted him to the nomination. We gotta hope that holds again. It bad for our collective ability to read reality when all the journalists are addicted to this dogshit website.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentI consider it a bad sign for my own mental health that I even know who David Shor isI consider it a bad sign for my own mental health that I even know who David Shor is
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentHe ran unopposed because any competitive candidate knew they’d lose if they ran against him, so they saved their ammo for next year. Winning in that context is a hell of a lot more of a popular...He ran unopposed because any competitive candidate knew they’d lose if they ran against him, so they saved their ammo for next year.
Winning in that context is a hell of a lot more of a popular mandate than the output of a party coup led by centrists freaking out about their donors turning off the money spigot.
They’re not even interested in having the elected delegates be released and choose. They want to have some insane Oprah Winfrey led reality show to select the candidate. It’s all deeply unserious. There is no plan, just a bunch of TV addicted nerds writing screenplays.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentThe centrist elites are the ones calling for an open convention. It’s the rank-and-file that oppose it.The objection, and the position the Democrat elite take, is an open convention would be uncontrolled.
The centrist elites are the ones calling for an open convention. It’s the rank-and-file that oppose it.
-
Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
NaraVara Link ParentNot only is he down two points, he’s down two points despite a large wing of his own party in revolt against him, the entire press corps egging them on like degenerate gamblers at a cockfight, and...Biden is down like 2-5 points depending on what polls you look at
Not only is he down two points, he’s down two points despite a large wing of his own party in revolt against him, the entire press corps egging them on like degenerate gamblers at a cockfight, and the party’s major donors doing a full court press to push him out. Meanwhile his opponent survived an assassination attempt and got an epic PR photo out of it.
And this has led to Biden being down by two fricking points and any alternative candidate or generic democrat polling, at best, 1 or 2 points better than him despite no negative attacks levied against them yet and often with adjustments for name recognition included (which sort of begs away the incumbency advantage being given up).
This is an insane panic over nothing. And when you bring it up the “Biden should drop out” people lean on catastrophizing exaggerations like “he literally can’t speak!” Social media has people in an alternate reality where they’re ONLY looking at Biden instead of thinking about what the actual choice is they’re making.
Yeah this personality seems to emerge in the Democratic Party each generation (Adlai Stevenson previously), and they’re always electoral disasters. The nitty gritty is part of the job, and unwillingness to focus on it significantly hobbled the effectiveness of his Presidency.