NaraVara's recent activity

  1. Comment on Are you having any (professional) "I told you so" moments? in ~tech

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    When I told the data science triumphalists I work with that they really need think harder about what sorts of constraints the methodology imposes on our ability to generalize our findings, they...

    When I told the data science triumphalists I work with that they really need think harder about what sorts of constraints the methodology imposes on our ability to generalize our findings, they all said I was too fussy and that's just my stuffy academia/public policy background talking. We can just solve any validity issues with MOAR AND BIGGER DATAS they said.

    Not so! It turns out. Maybe Data Science certification courses should have spent more time on the latter part of the term. (Sorry, I'm not bitter or anything. Certainly not.)

    10 votes
  2. Comment on Are you having any (professional) "I told you so" moments? in ~tech

    NaraVara
    Link
    Not two months ago I told my client "You guys are really lax about stress testing your business continuity and contingency plans. . ." Also, I warned another client who was planning to cut staff...

    Not two months ago I told my client "You guys are really lax about stress testing your business continuity and contingency plans. . ."

    Also, I warned another client who was planning to cut staff in their SOC because they figured they had an ML model that flags aberrant behavior and doesn't need as many analysts to figure stuff out.

    But now everyone's working from home. Guess what happens to your machine learning models when ALL the unstated assumptions embedded in your training data sets no longer apply suckas!?

    13 votes
  3. Comment on What have you been listening to this week? in ~music

    NaraVara
    Link
    I've been listening to so much since I'm at home. This has been my worktime jam though I'm generally anti-YouTube for music since the audio tends to be really compressed. But it's actually nice to...

    I've been listening to so much since I'm at home.

    This has been my worktime jam though

    I'm generally anti-YouTube for music since the audio tends to be really compressed. But it's actually nice to have the visual component.

    2 votes
  4. Comment on The right is using COVID-19 to wage war on reusable grocery bags in ~enviro

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    Owning the libs is their ideology. If you're a lib-cuck and you think it's good, then it must be bad. More specifically, they are ideologically resistant to the concept of modifying their behavior...

    I'm a bit confused as to why the reusable and disposable bag question is somehow connected with political ideology.

    Owning the libs is their ideology. If you're a lib-cuck and you think it's good, then it must be bad.

    More specifically, they are ideologically resistant to the concept of modifying their behavior due to outside pressure in any way. Imagine how oppositional and defiant you were when you were a teenager and going through a rebellious phase. Now make that phase a core element of your moral world view: Nobody get to tell me what to do. Not ever. They deeply believe that they have a "core" self that is independent and inherently good, and anything you do through incentives, shame, or any sort of pressure to make them act against that "core self" is bad by definition.

    This is also why they like Trump so much. He just dispenses with the generic moral framings that conservatism tries to apply to create a semi-defensible, libertarian ethic around things. Once that's stripped out, though, you see it for what it is. He's a guy that seemingly does whatever he wants, whenever he wants, consequences be damned. There is no broader sense of responsibility or accountability there. It's just pure id.

    It's also clear why this seems to find special purchase among the religious right. They're an extremely psychologically repressed group of people. That repression metastatizes into a sense of resentment against any kind of fetters. They've deeply internalized liberal framings around racism and sexism and such as "being bad," but since they still instinctively feel racist or sexist feelings they're just wracked with resentment about it. The way out isn't to change how they feel, but to resent you for making them feel bad for being how they are. This is where the "Everyone's thinking it! I'm the only one brave enough to say it!" thing comes from. It's a persecution complex that leads to them lashing out in being defiant for the sake of defiance.

    6 votes
  5. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent

    Republicans like shutting the government down for months because their explicit aim is to hamstring the effectiveness and utility of the government, which protracted and frequent shut-downs end up doing. If you actually care about the welfare of the people in line at the bank, it wouldn't make much sense for you to take them hostage and start making demands that you know won't be met.

    1 vote
  6. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    Not just ineffective. Likely to backfire.

    Not just ineffective. Likely to backfire.

  7. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    If you want to make a general statement about shutdowns, you'd need a bigger N than 4 previous shutdowns with tons of confounding variables for each.

    If you want to make a general statement about shutdowns, you'd need a bigger N than 4 previous shutdowns with tons of confounding variables for each.

  8. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    Because it's only happened a handful of times in history, so it's not really a phenomenon that's subject to being studied with "data."

    but the article you linked explicitly says that there is not a lot of data to go on.

    Because it's only happened a handful of times in history, so it's not really a phenomenon that's subject to being studied with "data."

  9. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    This is well known enough to be conventional wisdom: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-government-shutdown-effect-big-in-the-short-term-small-after-that/ Out in the real world, there are...

    I would like to see the data that supports this.

    This is well known enough to be conventional wisdom: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-government-shutdown-effect-big-in-the-short-term-small-after-that/

    Where is that policy explicitly defined? How would that policy be changed?

    Out in the real world, there are troops stationed in Iraq. Regardless of what changes you make on paper, it still has to be executed by a whole chain of command in reality. This isn't an "explicitly defined policy" so much as a brute fact about how governments work. When you have an executive and a 535 person legislature who have to form a consensus about changing course, it ends up being kind of hard to make everyone agree on what to change or how to change things.

    2 votes
  10. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    Republicans like shutting the government down for months because their explicit aim is to hamstring the effectiveness and utility of the government, which protracted and frequent shut-downs end up...

    If the Republicans had a serious moral problem with the budget, they would shut the government down for months.

    Republicans like shutting the government down for months because their explicit aim is to hamstring the effectiveness and utility of the government, which protracted and frequent shut-downs end up doing. If you actually care about the welfare of the people in line at the bank, it wouldn't make much sense for you to take them hostage and start making demands that you know won't be met.

    And what's more, whenever Republicans DO shut the government down, they end up losing that fight anyway. So it's not even an effective strategy globally, just locally for the handful of fringe nutcase districts that do it. Shutdowns have seriously damaged the Republican brand overall, they've just empowered the nutcases in the party at everyone else's expense.

    Why are Democrats continuing to vote for the budgets that are funding the Iraq war?

    These budgets go through omnibus spending bills. It's called an omnibus bill because it's a spending bill that covers all the things. They vote for the budget because it's still the policy of the United States government to continue prosecuting that war and the budget is just the funding to execute on that policy. They could go for broke on it and end up defunding things like the Defense Health Agency and basically every heavy manufacturing and semiconductor producer in the country, but that's not exactly a winning gambit. Ending a war usually means a drawdown of forces and an organized process of pulling people out and cleaning up after ourselves. You can't just decide "No money, figure it out" and expect the war to just end. If the President is still committed to seeing it through, they'll just move the money in from somewhere else.

    4 votes
  11. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    There is a wonderful tradition in American political journalism in which only the Democratic party has any agency at all. Even if the Democrats control no branches of the government, everything is...

    There is a wonderful tradition in American political journalism in which only the Democratic party has any agency at all.

    Even if the Democrats control no branches of the government, everything is all their fault. Even if 98% of the Democrats go one way and, like, 2 guys flake off it's a sign that "The Democrats" are just the same as the Republicans.

    7 votes
  12. Comment on The new U.S. stimulus bill is massive, but it might not be enough in ~finance

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    If the economy tanks because a bunch of storefronts go under, it is absolutely the landlords and creditors who should lose their shirts and not the store owners. A store that continues to operate...

    Liquidity issues of small businesses will hit when bills come due. That's when bankruptcies will start happening and the cycle of more bankruptcies continue. This is when the fact that joblessness will last for a long time manifests itself.

    If the economy tanks because a bunch of storefronts go under, it is absolutely the landlords and creditors who should lose their shirts and not the store owners. A store that continues to operate can simply. . .continue to operate and generate economic activity. If you let the store go under, then you've got a vacancy that needs to be filled but can't because because all the people who would have started a business have no money to restart. The lag time to catch up on production gets waaaaay extended if you try to save the landlords, shareholders, or creditors. They are the least value-additive parts of the production chain yet our entire economic system is predicated on protecting their fortunes.

    4 votes
  13. Comment on Time’s Up said it could not fund a #metoo allegation against Joe Biden in ~news

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    Nah. “Too conservative” is an understatement. This claim that it would have endangered their non-profit status is nuts. It would have been absurd even in a world where the IRS wasn’t reporting to...

    mean, I can kind of understand being conservative in the approach in that regard. Losing the exemption would be a huge blow to them and the IRS is traditionally not an institution whose rules you want to interpret to liberally..

    Nah. “Too conservative” is an understatement. This claim that it would have endangered their non-profit status is nuts. It would have been absurd even in a world where the IRS wasn’t reporting to a man who was literally impeached for abusing his authority to force Ukraine to make shit up about Joe Biden. There is no reasonable fear for them here.

    It would be a lot easier to take this claim seriously if it wasn’t being published in The Intercept, which has had a track record of being deep in the tank for the Sanders campaign. Given how dubious this article’s central thesis is combined with the lack of trustworthiness of the site itself in this regard, this should be taken with a large heap of salt.

    If you read between the lines in the article it’s pretty clear this is a weirdly slanted interpretation of the facts. The main paragraph is a quote from Reade herself, basically hearsay about what Times Up said:

    By February, she learned from a new conversation with Time’s Up, which also involved Director Sharyn Tejani, that no assistance could be provided because the person she was accusing, Biden, was a candidate for federal office, and assisting a case against him could jeopardize the organization’s nonprofit status.

    Times Up’s response is pretty clearly as measured as they could be without undermining Reade’s credibility, because they have ideological “believe women” reasons for not wanting to do that. Read carefully and you notice they don’t actually corroborate her claim about 501 status, just that they’re not backing her claim but don’t want to discourage women from speaking out.

    Driscoll wrote to Reade that she “wanted to let you know that after our conversation I talked further with our Director, Sharyn Tejani, about our ability to offer funding or public relations support in your case. Unfortunately, the Fund’s decision remains the same. … Please know how much I appreciate your courage in speaking out and appreciate what you shared over the phone, that you are speaking out so that your daughter and other young people can start their careers free of harassment.”

    Then the subsequent statement about how 501s do have political restrictions, but it comes from a PR person speaking strictly about legal restrictions and it’s pretty clear that she wasn’t talking about this specific case.

    Most likely the real reason is they didn’t think the case had sufficient support to be actionable so they blew her off in a way that didn’t leave her feeling resentful about them and the story spun out from there.

    2 votes
  14. Comment on Dan Patrick’s ’get back to living’ plan is a path to an America we don’t want to be in ~health.coronavirus

  15. Comment on Senate Democrats block mammoth coronavirus stimulus package in ~health.coronavirus

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    Even Joe Manchin had some pretty unambiguous words about the Republican bill.

    The vote failed again today

    Even Joe Manchin had some pretty unambiguous words about the Republican bill.

    “It’s ridiculous. And if they think we’re going to stand by and let them play with a slush fund with all the billionaires and millionaires in the world, they’re wrong," Manchin said. "This is one time they’re not going to screw the average person – and a worker’s going to get a fair shake."

    11 votes
  16. Comment on Senate Democrats block mammoth coronavirus stimulus package in ~health.coronavirus

    NaraVara
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    It's extra fun because the Supreme Court seems to be really wishy-washy in their opinion on what allowable amounts of of delegation of powers are. From the perspective of strict, legal logic it...

    There is little precedent for a program with a similar size and scope.

    It's extra fun because the Supreme Court seems to be really wishy-washy in their opinion on what allowable amounts of of delegation of powers are. From the perspective of strict, legal logic it seems like their track record on these cases is completely arbitrary. But if you consider, instead, that any case where more delegation means looting the treasury on behalf of big corporations then it's good and any case where it means spending on behalf of people or workers or stricter regulations then it's bad then it makes perfect sense.

    4 votes
  17. Comment on Can I cycle outside? in ~health.coronavirus

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    They’re just ethanol soaked rags. Ethanol will disinfect just about anything.

    They’re just ethanol soaked rags. Ethanol will disinfect just about anything.

  18. Comment on Can I cycle outside? in ~health.coronavirus

    NaraVara
    Link Parent
    This. Just take some antibacterial wipes or sanitizer with you when you go out if you can. In my town the local distilleries have started producing hand sanitizer instead since all the bars and...

    This. Just take some antibacterial wipes or sanitizer with you when you go out if you can. In my town the local distilleries have started producing hand sanitizer instead since all the bars and restaurants are closed.

    2 votes
  19. Comment on Making parmesan at home in ~food

    NaraVara
    Link
    Well, Parmesan "style" at least. WFH is sending me down some weird YouTube rabbit holes. I also love that he introduces by saying "Greetings curd nerds."

    Well, Parmesan "style" at least.

    WFH is sending me down some weird YouTube rabbit holes.

    I also love that he introduces by saying "Greetings curd nerds."

    2 votes