18 votes

This Week in Election Night, 2020 (Week 7)

week seven comes a bit early this week again because this week offers up what might be the most articles that i've covered in one of these so far. no [LONGFORM] articles this week, but we do have a lot of policy stuff, mostly from the secondary and lesser candidates!

the usual note: common sense should be able to generally dictate what does and does not get posted in this thread. if it's big news or feels like big news, probably make it its own post instead of lobbing it in here. like the other weekly threads, this one is going to try to focus on things that are still discussion worthy, but wouldn't necessarily make good/unique/non-repetitive discussion starters as their own posts.

Week 1 threadWeek 2 threadWeek 3 threadWeek 4 threadWeek 5 threadWeek 6 thread


News

General Stuff

Joe Biden

Bottom line: 96 hours in, Biden looks more like John Kerry of 2004 (the slight front-runner in a volatile Democratic field) than Al Gore of 2000 or Hillary Clinton of 2016.

  • from Jacobin: Joe Biden Is Not a Blue-Collar Candidate. jacobin offers up this take, arguing that biden is not a blue-collar candidate because his voting record suggests he sells out the working class often, and while he is generally acceptable at representing the white working class, he fails to really represent minority working class voters and therefore cannot be a properly blue-collar candidate.

  • from the Atlantic: Biden Is Betting on Unions. They Might Bet on Someone Else. biden is of course angling for the union vote and union endorsements, which he's already winning to some extent with an endorsement from the (admittedly in the biden tank) International Association of Fire Fighters (membership: 300,000). he's going to have a hard time garnering labor endorsements, though, because he is far from the only candidate with union ties. as the article notes, among the other candidates vying for the backing of the unions are sanders, warren and harris, and each of them have arguably just as much claim to the working-class as biden does (see also last week's Democratic presidential candidates seek union support at workers' forum).

Bernie Sanders

  • from CBS News: Bernie and Biden: Fighting for Trump voters. one of the side effects of how this primary is being waged is that obama-trump voters are being targeted significantly by just about everybody involved. this targeting by the two ends of the primary (and the related issues involved with that) is the subject of this article by CBS News.

  • from Reuters: Bernie Sanders promises help for family farms, rural residents on trip to Iowa. policy-wise, sanders has focused on rural communities in recent weeks, promising among other things to "strengthen anti-trust laws to block new corporate agriculture mergers and break up existing monopolies" and "changes to farm subsidy programs to shift the benefits away from bigger farms to smaller and mid-sized operations".

Everybody Else

New Hampshire is a state where Massachusetts candidates like Warren typically do quite well, but a Suffolk University survey of Granite State Democrats released earlier this week had her in fourth place behind Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg. When asked why, nearly 1-in-5 non-Warren voters said the main reason they don't support her is because they doubt she can beat Mr. Trump.

  • from the Atlantic: Mayor Buttigieg Is Working Remotely Today. this article mostly focuses on the interesting issue buttigieg has--which is, of course, that he is still the mayor of south bend while he's out campaigning. since buttigieg has state he has no intentions of stepping down from the mayoral position he holds (and his term expires in november), this is probably going to be an interested background note of his campaign for the next little while.

  • from POLITICO: Gillibrand proposes public campaign financing plan. kirsten gillibrand has policy too, folks! admittedly, i have no idea why her policy takes this form, but she nonetheless proposes that:

...eligible voters could opt into her “Democracy Dollars” program and register for vouchers, provided by the Federal Elections Commission, to donate up to $100 in a primary election and $100 in a general election each cycle. Each participant would get $200 for each type of federal contest: House, Senate and presidential elections.
But there would be limits on both donors and candidates in order to use the public voucher program. Voters could contribute only to candidates in their state — including House candidates outside their district but within their state. In order to accept the public money, candidates would have to restrict themselves to accepting only donations of $200 or less.

“Amy will support incentives for state governments to enact ignition interlock laws for those convicted of drunk driving to help reduce repeat offenders. Since problems with alcoholism often start early, Amy will support educational initiatives that focus on the risks of alcohol as well as early identification and treatment of alcoholism,” a summary said.

supplemental reporting by CBS News also notes the following: "The Minnesota Democrat wants to pay for treatment for those addicted to opioids by charging a two-cents-per-milligram fee to companies that make the drug."

His plan includes the typical Democratic proposals: universal background checks, an assault weapons ban, better enforcement of existing gun laws, and more funding for gun violence research. But Booker’s plan goes further by requiring that gun owners not just pass a background check but obtain a license to be able to purchase and own a firearm. It’s a far more robust gun control proposal than any other presidential candidate has proposed.

in many respects this is similar (but more comprehensive in some respects and les comprehensive in others) to the current gun policy of massachusetts. booker's plan also includes a national database for tracking firearms, and also limits on purchases to prevent things like resale. vox's part of the writing here also has info on the underlying research and statistics with respect to whether or not these policies work (for the most part, they seem to).

  • Ensure trading partners adopt and enforce fair labor and safety standards
  • Ensure the protection of IP rights of American companies
  • Require trading partners to enforce environmental and climate standards
  • Ensure U.S. firms enjoy equitable and comparable investment rights abroad
  • Ensure U.S. workers have assistance to adjust to job displacement from trade

if you're interested in that sort of thing, CBS also helpfully embedded the five-page outline going into more detail on those planks in the article.


Opinion/Ideology-driven

...the discussion around the topic is fraught, particularly for the Democratic Party, which has defined itself in recent decades as the party that embraces and seeks inclusion and diversity. If you're going to assert that a white man is better qualified for a job (the party's nominee) by virtue of being a white man, you really need to be sure on your facts. And the facts just aren't there.

  • from Jacobin: Stick With Bernie. this jacobin piece argues that progressive/leftist types need to rally behind bernie given biden's strength, or else they risk a biden v trump general election which would likely (in their view) go the same way as clinton v trump did in 2016. it's pretty much impossible to tell this far out, but honestly, it's pretty easy to see their point here given biden's circumstances.

  • from Truthout: The Era of “Centrist” Establishment Democrats Is Over. this op-ed from Truthout strongly rebukes the "centrist" tendency of the democratic party, arguing that there is basically no place for that tendency anymore and that it simply does not and cannot produce a winning coalition at this point. bold and new ideas which buck the traditional orthodoxy in this view are the only way to mobilize and produce a winning coalition, because otherwise either too many people stay home, or not enough people vote democratic.

  • from the Guardian: Bernie Sanders needs black women's support. So what's his plan to win us over?. bernie's biggest failing so far between his two presidential runs has almost certainly been his failure to appeal to minority voters, particularly black women. this is of course an issue because he likely needs black women to win the primary and the general. as allison writes here: "Black voters and women of color do not want another president who does not see or value us. Sanders needs to let us know that he understands deeply how frightening, difficult and dangerous this political moment is for us, and for the entire country."

  • from the Guardian: Joe Biden wants us to forget his past. We won't. perhaps the biggest failing of biden on the other hand is his absolutely god awful track record, for which he is raked here and will likely continue to be raked. the main crux of the op-ed:

As times have changed, Biden has expressed retrospective misgivings about some of those earlier actions and stances. For example, he very recently attempted to offer an apology of sorts, more like an unpology, to Anita Hill, which she quite understandably rejected. And he remains a pure, dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal, as much as ever a tool of Wall Street and corporations. We deserve better than a candidate who wants us to look past his record and focus only on the image he wants to project and, when that tack fails, can offer progressives only a “my bad”.

  • from the Guardian: We can't save the planet with half measures. We need to go all the way. this is one part an op-ed written about climate change, one part an op-ed responding to beto o'rourke's climate plan. on one hand, it does note that o'rourke's plan is good--but it also notes that "good" is not nearly enough to avert the problem, and it's also a downgrade from what o'rourke originally endorsed, which was net-zero emissions by 2030.

  • from the Guardian: Is Elizabeth Warren's college plan really progressive? Yes. this op-ed is pretty straightforward and argues against the somewhat-weird position that warren's college plan isn't progressive because it also helps middle-and-upper-class people that's been advanced by a few people.


anyways, feel free to as always contribute other interesting articles you stumble across, or comment on some of the ones up there.

25 comments

  1. [2]
    gpl Link
    Thanks so much for this, after work I'm going to catch up on some reading. Do you compile these posts yourself? They're quite in depth.

    Thanks so much for this, after work I'm going to catch up on some reading. Do you compile these posts yourself? They're quite in depth.

    5 votes
    1. alyaza Link Parent
      yes. they tend to take anywhere between an hour and three hours to compile depending on length, and i collect links for most of the week for them.

      yes. they tend to take anywhere between an hour and three hours to compile depending on length, and i collect links for most of the week for them.

      5 votes
  2. [7]
    Pilgrim Link
    I'm liking Warren more and more. She's who I think we truly need...but will we get her?

    I'm liking Warren more and more. She's who I think we truly need...but will we get her?

    5 votes
    1. [2]
      moriarty Link Parent
      Every time I hear her talk or read her opinions, I really like what I hear. She is assertive and articulate in what she wants to achieve, and has no problem changing her mind when convinced she's...

      Every time I hear her talk or read her opinions, I really like what I hear. She is assertive and articulate in what she wants to achieve, and has no problem changing her mind when convinced she's wrong. I still have a preference for Sanders, but I'll take whomever. I do think Biden is a mistake, though. With and the progress the party has down towards progressives (in large part due to the Trump disaster), Biden will be a major step backwards.
      But I would like to see more of the candidates, especially the frontrunners, talking about environmental policies more. I think this is the single most important topic of our generation and I'm hoping Inslee is going to push some people to take it more seriously.

      2 votes
      1. alyaza Link Parent
        it does at least seem like we're definitely going to hear a lot more about it this time around, and it's nice to see other people besides inslee gradually rolling out their own proposals which...

        But I would like to see more of the candidates, especially the frontrunners, talking about environmental policies more.

        it does at least seem like we're definitely going to hear a lot more about it this time around, and it's nice to see other people besides inslee gradually rolling out their own proposals which suggests that they're going to stump on it themselves. just off the top of my head cory booker has an environmental justice plan which he introduced about two weeks ago, and there's of course beto's plan which i mentioned in the OP. i'd imagine that warren and sanders will eventually introduce their own ideas as well--they're both already flirting with climate-adjacent policies in their agricultural reforms.

        1 vote
    2. [4]
      alyaza Link Parent
      her path is the debates or nothing at all. she basically has not increased her polling average thus far despite being one of the first major candidates to enter the race, and if anything, she's...

      her path is the debates or nothing at all. she basically has not increased her polling average thus far despite being one of the first major candidates to enter the race, and if anything, she's gradually decaying in the polls.

      1 vote
      1. [3]
        Pilgrim Link Parent
        I thought she had a little bump after the She the People's conference? But I definitely agree with your assessment. She's a slim shot and unless she picks up serious momentum, I'll probably vote...

        I thought she had a little bump after the She the People's conference?

        But I definitely agree with your assessment. She's a slim shot and unless she picks up serious momentum, I'll probably vote Bernie in the primary...but I have my concerns with his ability to actually govern and his willingness to be an ideologue when it does him a disservice (like his recent comments about letting prisoners vote). So, maybe Biden? I'm still up in the air it seems.

        1. [2]
          alyaza Link Parent
          i would imagine if she did get a 'bump' of some sort, it probably wasn't statistically significant enough to parse out from plain old noise that comes with polling, because she's essentially been...

          i would imagine if she did get a 'bump' of some sort, it probably wasn't statistically significant enough to parse out from plain old noise that comes with polling, because she's essentially been stuck between 8 and 14% for basically the entire campaign so far.

          1. Pilgrim Link Parent
            Yeah, it was maybe a point or two, but not enough to make her competitive with the front runners.

            Yeah, it was maybe a point or two, but not enough to make her competitive with the front runners.

  3. [13]
    alyaza Link
    as far as polling, there's been a bit which i omitted. the most recent polling that i've seen is from Harris X/The Hill, which found the following: biden is still riding a bump. we'll see if he...

    as far as polling, there's been a bit which i omitted. the most recent polling that i've seen is from Harris X/The Hill, which found the following:

    Biden 46%
    Sanders 14%
    Buttigieg 8%
    Warren 7%
    Harris 6%
    O'Rourke 3%
    Booker 3%
    Gabbard 1%
    Castro 1%
    Gillibrand 1%
    Bennet 1%
    Delaney 1%
    Ryan 1%
    Yang 1%
    Williamson 1%
    Inslee 1%
    Swalwell 1%

    biden is still riding a bump. we'll see if he comes down from that.

    3 votes
    1. [5]
      CALICO Link Parent
      49 days until the first debate, I'll be very curious to see how the polling changes among the candidates once those start up.

      49 days until the first debate, I'll be very curious to see how the polling changes among the candidates once those start up.

      3 votes
      1. [4]
        suspended Link Parent
        Does anyone have a link to more information about this?

        49 days until the first debate

        Does anyone have a link to more information about this?

        2 votes
        1. [2]
          alyaza Link Parent
          NBC just officially announced where the first debate will be held, so i assume we'll get more formal details on it from them in the near future.

          NBC just officially announced where the first debate will be held, so i assume we'll get more formal details on it from them in the near future.

          2 votes
    2. [3]
      alyaza Link Parent
      morning consult would seem to concur with this general line of candidates, with polling that got out of field 3 days ago. biden is basically doubling up every front runner combined:

      morning consult would seem to concur with this general line of candidates, with polling that got out of field 3 days ago. biden is basically doubling up every front runner combined:

      Biden 40%
      Sanders 19%
      Warren 8%
      Harris 7%
      Buttigieg 6%
      O'Rourke 5%
      Booker 3%
      Klobuchar 2%
      Yang 1%
      Gillibrand 1%
      Ryan 1%
      Castro 1%
      Delaney 1%
      Hickenlooper 1%
      Bullock 1%
      Gabbard 1%
      Inslee 0%
      Moulton 0%

      1. [2]
        Loire Link Parent
        Jesus Christ Biden is riding at 40%? Those numbers are incredibly disheartening. Sure he's cresting right now but 20% is a long way to fall.

        Jesus Christ Biden is riding at 40%?

        Those numbers are incredibly disheartening. Sure he's cresting right now but 20% is a long way to fall.

        1 vote
        1. alyaza Link Parent
          in most polls, he was already polling between high-20s and low-40s, so this actually isn't that much of a deviation from the norm, and it does still remain to be seen whether it decays in any way...

          in most polls, he was already polling between high-20s and low-40s, so this actually isn't that much of a deviation from the norm, and it does still remain to be seen whether it decays in any way before the debates. it decayed for warren and then for beto, and there's signs it's decayed for buttigieg as well in these.

    3. alyaza Link Parent
      monmouth with some state polling for new hampshire finds the following in the 2020 race: worth noting, the democratic party has a rule that candidates are only eligible for state-bound delegates...

      monmouth with some state polling for new hampshire finds the following in the 2020 race:

      In a field of 24 announced and potential candidates, Biden holds a clear lead with 36% support of registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the February 2020 primary. He is followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 18%. Other contenders include South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (9%), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%), and California Sen. Kamala Harris (6%). Registering at least 1% in the poll are former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (2%), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%), former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (1%), Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (1%), and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (1%). The remaining 13 candidates earn less than 1% or were not chosen by any respondents in the poll.

      worth noting, the democratic party has a rule that candidates are only eligible for state-bound delegates if they garner 15% of the vote or more in the state's primary, which means that were these results to somehow hold until 2020, biden and sanders would be the only two to receive any state delegates.

    4. [3]
      moriarty Link Parent
      FiveThirtyEight has collected all the polls in this page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

      FiveThirtyEight has collected all the polls in this page:
      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

      1. [2]
        alyaza Link Parent
        oh yeah, i forgot they're already compiling these! it feels like they really shouldn't, because it's may of 2019, lol.

        oh yeah, i forgot they're already compiling these! it feels like they really shouldn't, because it's may of 2019, lol.

        1. moriarty Link Parent
          I appreciate the ability to easily compare polls and track history. I expect them to post an in-depth meta analysis of these any day now :)

          I appreciate the ability to easily compare polls and track history. I expect them to post an in-depth meta analysis of these any day now :)

  4. alyaza Link
    politico has two pieces out today breaking down policy: one for elizabeth warren's new opioid crisis policy, and one for kamala harris's policy for aiding public defenders. How Sen. Elizabeth...

    politico has two pieces out today breaking down policy: one for elizabeth warren's new opioid crisis policy, and one for kamala harris's policy for aiding public defenders.

    honestly really hoping we get some cross-pollination of ideas between candidates, because a lot of them have good ideas like this.

    1 vote
  5. guywithhair Link
    I'm liking Buttigieg so far. The biggest problem is his lack of experience compared to the other candidates. I haven't seen much as far as hard plans for policy, but the high-level responses I've...

    I'm liking Buttigieg so far. The biggest problem is his lack of experience compared to the other candidates. I haven't seen much as far as hard plans for policy, but the high-level responses I've seen him give tend to align decently well with my opinions.

    I'll admit that electability is something I'm focusing on at this point, and I think he has a pretty solid case for it. Young guy, very well educated, served in the military. I hate myself for even making it into a point, but the fact that he's gay checks the diversity box well enough to get past that filter. I have a feeling this election will see a higher turnout among young voters than most elections, and being considered a millennial would definitely play in his favor.

    Debates are going to be very important though. In all honesty, I hope someone there (don't care who) starts slinging shit like Trump would, because debating him is a different animal. Anyone who can't roll with the punches is going to get eaten alive because ol' Donny doen't have shame nor a filter.

    It'll be an interesting election cycle, but I don't think Biden will ride the wave all the way through the primaries because he's just too old and bland for the current political climate. I know Bernie is popular, but I'm not confident that focusing on progressives is the right play. I just want a reasonable candidate with realistic goals that will work to unify people because I'm sick of all the animosity.

    1 vote