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Trump's popularity during the 2016 campaign was closely correlated with Internet Research Agency bot activity. Every 25,000 retweets by IRA accounts predicted a 1% increase in opinion polls for Trump.
Link information
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- Title
- New study: Russian propaganda may really have helped Trump in 2016
- Published
- Jul 1 2019
- Word count
- 781 words
Anyone else shocked at how relatively tiny 25,000 retweets is for such a big effect (even if it wasn't necessarily the only driving factor behind the poll increases)?
Twitter is a tiny platform. When it published its user numbers for the first time ever in Feburary this year, it noted that 39% of its monthly users use the site daily. Their daily user count was 126 million.
Of the people with twitter accounts, it's rare to find people with many tweets. Use is really low. Retweets are low numbers. I'm not at all surprised if a couple thousand bots makes something trend in almost any country bar the largest English-language ones.
If anything, reddit as a platform seems even easier to game. Due to the logarithmic scale of voting, even a hundred or two hundred votes on a thread that don't get detected by reddit's pitiful anti-vote-cheating systems almost ensures that a post gets hundreds of thousands of views.
This is inevitably what's going to happen with social media platforms that go mainstream unless they choose hiring practices that are completely different to what SoMe companies do today. There just aren't enough heads to not be manipulated by those who're willing to pay to get their message across.
The research was published in the peer-reviewed journal First Monday: D. J. Ruck, N. M. Rice, J. Borycz, and R. A. Bentley, Internet Research Agency Twitter activity predicted 2016 U.S. election polls, First Monday, 24:7, July 2019.
It's not so much that the research is "misleading" as people are misinterpreting the results of the study. The researchers were never trying to establish causality between IRA account activity and Trump's polling numbers, they were just examining the relationship. From the discussion section of the paper: