nacho's recent activity
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Comment on Czech Post halts parcel deliveries to US amid new tariff rules in ~society
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Comment on Europe's rich are watching Norway's election debate on wealth taxes – changes to taxation are at the heart of the centre-right's attempts to retake power in ~society
nacho Link ParentWealth taxes stimulate meaningless consumption. That's really bad for the environment. It's good for the planet that rich people do not spend millions on luxury to avoid wealth taxes by...Por que no los dos?
Wealth taxes stimulate meaningless consumption. That's really bad for the environment. It's good for the planet that rich people do not spend millions on luxury to avoid wealth taxes by consumption.
That's why not both.
Inheritance taxes can be designed so that you cannot simply dodge them by creating trusts or giving gifts to heirs or "charity".
Many countries manage this.
Taxing wealth and taxing capital gains/income are fundamentally different things.
If I own a house and have to pay a 1 percent wealth tax on the value of said house, I might have to sell the house to pay tax.
Only paying tax as gains are realized or wealth is transferred to another owner is entirely different, as are the moral arguments for those taxes.
(I'm in absolutely no way advocating for removing taxation on income/capital gains. To the contrary: We need to tax more types of asset transfers at the point in time when the assets are transferred. Like though significant inheritance taxes.)
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Comment on Europe's rich are watching Norway's election debate on wealth taxes – changes to taxation are at the heart of the centre-right's attempts to retake power in ~society
nacho LinkWhat countries need are reasonable inheritance taxes. That's a much better solution than wealth taxes, for all parties involved. The moral arguments for inheritance taxes are much stronger than...What countries need are reasonable inheritance taxes. That's a much better solution than wealth taxes, for all parties involved.
The moral arguments for inheritance taxes are much stronger than re-taxing already taxed values if the value isn't spent/lost.
Wealth hoarding and huge inequality is perpetuated and reinforced by inheritance. Taxation when money goes from one generation to the next is a good idea.
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Comment on What are your favorite and least favorite airports? in ~transport
nacho LinkAirports are mostly about where you have to go. The exception is when an itinerary requires layover(s) anyway, so you can choose between several routes where the number of hours door to door don't...Airports are mostly about where you have to go. The exception is when an itinerary requires layover(s) anyway, so you can choose between several routes where the number of hours door to door don't differ much in the end anyway.
That's the only time when airport preferences come into play, really. Even if it takes time on paper, I avoid the following three airports. It's just not worth it.
I avoid:
- All the London airports for transit. Especially Heathrow. They're terrible, delay-prone, expensive and ruin itineraries.
- Amsterdam (Schiphol), especially during weather/winter. Delay-prone both in- and outbound. Terminal switches happen regularly and suck due to distance. Many much better alternatives.
- Inbound to Newark. Immigration lines are often nightmarish. I dislike the food options/amenities for the hours you need to spend there to be sure you connect and get through immigration as planned.
When route durations and times are reasonably comparable, I prefer the following airports. For several of them, I'd rather go to one of the following even if it'll take longer on paper. When there are two or more layovers anyway, it's not like an hour saved or lost matters much. It's work/sleep time during the travel anyway, so it might as well be decent travel.
I prefer:
- Copenhagen or Iceland (Keflavik) to transit in Northern Europe. Get the job done where the above fail.
- Frankfurt. Efficient now they've managed to rehire enough staff post-covid. Good routes, decent food and shopping.
- Detroit for East Coast transit (Philly is good if connections match, especially inbound. Immigration is a breeze.)
- Atlanta. Connects well West and into the rest of the Americas. Works well. Decent food and services for a US airport.
- Singapore into Asia or the Pacific rather than any of the large Middle East hubs. All around nice, practical.
- San Diego if you have to connect on the West coast either going to Asia or elsewhere in the US. If the flights match, this is much preferable to LAX, Seattle etc.
- Into or out of China, nothing comes close to Guangzhou airport. Hong Kong was good until things got more complicated the last years. Not it's just extra hassle moving on, even though the airport itself is still great.
- New Dehli (Indira Gandhi int.) is good for Indian connections if I can't fly directly to where I need to go in India. It's preferable to many other layovers.
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Comment on How to calculate how long a large project will be delayed? How likely it will be completed at all? in ~engineering
nacho LinkI strongly, strongly recommend the book "How Big Things Get Done" by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner. You need a book to answer this question in a satisfying way. This is that book. So far no-one...I strongly, strongly recommend the book "How Big Things Get Done" by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner.
You need a book to answer this question in a satisfying way. This is that book.
So far no-one has mentioned the key word to a number of the world's largest industries: Logistics.
Construction is all about logistics. Trade is all about logistics. Production/manufacture is all about logistics. Technology development is all about logistics.
How do you get people to spend as little time as possible waiting and as much time as possible doing the things needed to be done in the right order to finish. How do we wait as little as possible? The waiting is what costs money.
Logistics is the art of planning. It's the entrepreneurial organization of resources to get the most out of as little as possible to maximize whatever you're trying to do.
When and how will we know the price and completion date of the ship tunnel?
Someone will make a contractually binding bid for how much they're willing to accept as payment for doing the job under a particular set of constraints.
Sure, there may be delays. The company awarded the job may go bankrupt, but that's relatively rare. If the public institutions buying write good procurement contracts, things generally get delivered on time and on cost.
The issues here are extremely often one of two things:
- Estimations before the market has been tested to see what it'll cost and when it'll be done
- Public companies doing things themselves so they don't have to lock a due-date or a price in a way that isn't easy to renege on.
For guessing at when new technologies will mature, how much they'll cost and so on, all we've got are previous estimates and previous experiences developing previous technologies.
Those previous technologies are necessarily different to the new undeveloped technologies.
Another huge factor in play here are the systemic forces that lead to known underbudgeting to get a political project rolling, knowing that once money is spent, more money will follow.
Getting the ball rolling on building a project is what matters. That's a completely different game, and it's a huge business game with a lost of vested interests.
No other politician will stop a half-constructed bridge. If you start a bunch of things you can't afford to do all at once, you're forcing the hand of future politicians so they have to spend their limited time and agency on your project rather than whatever project they see as most important when they're in the deciding-chair.
This same dynamic exists for CEOs and companies, within families, within marriages and so on.
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Comment on On being attractive in ~life
nacho LinkBeing attractive is also about a lot more things than physical appearance. It's also about behavior, smell, activities/interests, personality, how a person makes those around them feel, how those...Being attractive is also about a lot more things than physical appearance.
It's also about behavior, smell, activities/interests, personality, how a person makes those around them feel, how those around a person treat them and so on. On the internet, that often doesn't get the space it deserves based on how much it factors into things.
The male friend I have who gets hit on the most is also the heaviest of my friends. He's funny, flirty, extremely extroverted, dances and is good with kids (and love playing with them). He is present in the moment and attentive. When you give attention, of course you'll get more attention. And when you're seen getting attention, you get more attention.
Yes, there are factors that can't be changed or are hard to change.
Yes, appearance matters.
Yes, taking care of oneself matters in all regards, whether that's physical health, sleeping enough, personal hygiene, having a hair cut that suits you, being well-dressed, and yes, being at a healthy weight matter significantly.
In meatspace as opposed to online, appearance often isn't the first filter in a social setting. Behavior and interaction are way more important.
Being socially savvy is also an extremely important factor in succeeding professionally. Those who're stuck in the social mores of college or even high school when they're adults struggle.
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Comment on Over twenty-one days of talking with ChatGPT, an otherwise perfectly sane man became convinced he was a superhero in ~tech
nacho Link ParentI think you're very right. I also think this is intentional. Tones of voice, "personalities", avatars and so on. Making LLMs "think" like people do, take breaks of different lengths between words...I think you're very right. I also think this is intentional. Tones of voice, "personalities", avatars and so on.
Making LLMs "think" like people do, take breaks of different lengths between words showing up etc. etc.
A lot of this is smoke and mirrors to make everyone forget these are just language models.
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Comment on HiLobrow.com's the best 20th century adventure books in ~books
nacho LinkFun list! Surprising there's no Terry Pratchett and therefore no Discworld. No Tom Clancy (Jack Ryan series). Sophie's World was so huge in the mid 1990s that seems like a snub since it was such a...Fun list!
Surprising there's no Terry Pratchett and therefore no Discworld. No Tom Clancy (Jack Ryan series).
Sophie's World was so huge in the mid 1990s that seems like a snub since it was such a one-off.
- No Ian Fleming so no James Bond?
- No Zorba the Greek by Nikos Kazantzakis?
- Life of Pi by Yann Martel surely deserves a spot in the last bracket.
- The Secret Garden by Frances Hodgson Burnett surely deserves a spot just for the hundreds of millions of school children who have had this novel shape their early imaginations.
Some authors seem very heavily represented, and in several cases that's worthwhile.
There's very little Non-western literature here, as the compiler also notes. No Haruki Murakami though? The Kite Runner by Khaled Hosseini had an important role in showing the West that Afghanistan was more than a place to invade with people and a culture they didn't know anything about.
Lists are always hard. This is a pretty good one. I hope others have adventure books to suggest from this period! They're some of the best books, and I expect some of the books people will continue to read in the future because they're exciting and attention-gripping.
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Comment on I've noticed an odd and possibly disturbing trend on Reddit lately in ~tech
nacho Link ParentI don't think it's standards so much as that they haven't experienced all the iterations through the years that are the reasons for rules against so many different title types. There's next to no...I don't think it's standards so much as that they haven't experienced all the iterations through the years that are the reasons for rules against so many different title types.
There's next to no transmission of mod knowhow between subreddits. All the mod spaces died years ago. New mods will take years to realize why those rules all the "old guard" mods put in place over the years are smart rules to have.
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Comment on In landmark opinion, World Court says countries must address climate change threat in ~enviro
nacho Link ParentSolving climate change and reducing emissions plays out internationally as a wholly economic endeavor. This ruling doesn't change the economic calculus, and therefore won't lead to anything. I'm...Solving climate change and reducing emissions plays out internationally as a wholly economic endeavor.
This ruling doesn't change the economic calculus, and therefore won't lead to anything.
I'm struggling to remember an ICJ ruling that has forced the hand of a major power in recent years. The political calculus won't budge either.
One of the most difficult things with emissions is the gigantic economy of entrenched fossil fuel producers, consumers and systems.
They need to be usurped, and that requires more than green alternatives being cheaper. It requires change.
At least the ruling wasn't that there's no responsibility. This was entirely a situation that could have had a downside if the ruling were different. There was no upside with any result.
In today's political climate, energy self-sufficiency and energy systems are matters of national security. Militarization is sadly taking way too much of public money that could otherwise, at least in theory, be spent on the climate and nature crises.
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Comment on Alerts fatigue, or would that be journalism fatigue? in ~news
nacho Link ParentAustralia sleeps at the same time, as do a majority of people in most societies. If I'm out of the news loop, so many conversations become "have you heard about ____" and someone having to explain...Australia sleeps at the same time, as do a majority of people in most societies.
If I'm out of the news loop, so many conversations become "have you heard about ____" and someone having to explain what has happened rather than discussing that same issue, implications, feelings etc.
That's what I'd lose and everyone loses if they're out of the loop: These important social aspects. The glue that keeps society together.
There's a reason many newspapers used to come out in print twice a day, and cities had mail 2. 3 or even 5 times a day: The ability to have a simultaneous conversation, in a society where people are living at the same present time with updated references has real value in many areas.
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Comment on US Congress passes Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' cutting taxes and spending in ~society
nacho LinkOne of the most important parts of this whole bill is how this is a huge generational shift of wealth: A bunch of old people are now getting trillions of dollars of services. Future generations...One of the most important parts of this whole bill is how this is a huge generational shift of wealth:
- A bunch of old people are now getting trillions of dollars of services.
- Future generations are paying the bill
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Comment on A Higgs-bugson in the Linux kernel in ~tech
nacho Link ParentAnd it's useful in some contexts too! Like for versioning things to ensure that you know who leaks/breaks an embargo or similar. You don't have to write all those versions now, just save them and...And it's useful in some contexts too! Like for versioning things to ensure that you know who leaks/breaks an embargo or similar.
You don't have to write all those versions now, just save them and distribute.
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Comment on Alerts fatigue, or would that be journalism fatigue? in ~news
nacho Link ParentI think this is very reasonable. Ironically, or fittingly, however you see it, this thread was taking place around the same time of the passing of the "Big beautiful bill", that'd obviously be one...I think this is very reasonable.
Ironically, or fittingly, however you see it, this thread was taking place around the same time of the passing of the "Big beautiful bill", that'd obviously be one of those types of big news stories that will affect the world at large significantly.
But there are also stories we don't know the impact of without the benefit of hindsight:
Was the news some hours ago that US delivery of some military aid to Ukraine is cancelled or at least delayed due to lack of stores of those items in US national defense the turning point in the war? History has few smoking guns.
How about locally? Is a double homicide seven houses down the street from you something you'd want to know about immediately?
What about if this only becomes public knowledge a week after the fact? Could this then be something not worth knowing about for another day or two?
Personalization and being able to choose are options available to media. They're choosing to fail at giving people reasonable systems. Surely for their own perceived benefit.
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Comment on Alerts fatigue, or would that be journalism fatigue? in ~news
nacho Link ParentYou're essentially saying that it doesn't matter if one opts out of living in the present, of choosing not to be a part of the society we live in, that living in "parallel societies" is perfectly...You're essentially saying that it doesn't matter if one opts out of living in the present, of choosing not to be a part of the society we live in, that living in "parallel societies" is perfectly acceptable.
All my interactions with society around me are affected by being out of the loop. I can make an untold number of faux pas.
Empathy works at the speed of knowledge. Being close in time strengthens experience, knowledge and memory of an event.
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Imagine being on a space ship on 9/11, and not being able to return to earth for a couple of days, a week, a month.
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Imagine not being told by people on the ground that 9/11 had happened "because this wouldn't benefit from my immediate attention now more than in a few days, or when I'm back on Earth".
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I as the astronaut would rightfully feel lied to through omission.
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I have a right and duty to know what's going on around me. That's part of our social contract living in a society. We rightfully expect people to be on the same page.
Again, I have FEW alerts for myself. Precisely because news outlets are sending huge messages as if a politician saying something is imperative for me to know this minute. It's not.
However, there are many stories locally, nationally and internationally each and every week we should know of. Not knowing about these means I'd not be taking part on society. I live in a democracy, being a part of civic society is a duty to me at least.
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Comment on Alerts fatigue, or would that be journalism fatigue? in ~news
nacho Link ParentWho remembers where they were when they heard of 9/11? October 7th 2023? Would you remember where you were if you only learned about it the next day or a couple days later? No. Simply put, since...Who remembers where they were when they heard of 9/11? October 7th 2023?
Would you remember where you were if you only learned about it the next day or a couple days later? No.
Simply put, since before the advent of the telegraph, people have recognized that we live in an interconnected world.
That's why many newspapers came out twice a day. In some cities mail was delivered up to 5 times a day so we could have as close to real-time communications as possible.
- There is value to knowing what's happening right now
- We feel stronger empathy and feeling when we know what people are experiencing now, than learning of something that happened yesterday or a week ago
- We can only make decisions based on information we know, and who knows what things
- We can only talk with those around us about things we know about.
This is basic human psychology.
Quite simply: The moment is lost.
This is not due to phones in our pockets, the internet, tv or even radio.
We live in a world here and now. There is an inherent value in knowing important things quickly.
Wouldn't you feel left out if you learned your sister gave birth on the other side of the world if you only learned of it a couple days later? Knowing wouldn't change anything practical for my life, I'm not going to change any decisions, plan on going or whatever.
Again, I have very few alerts. I'm not advocating that we need to be constantly online, but we need to be a part of the world around us. If I were to get news only once a day or every couple of days, I'm not getting news, I'm getting " olds", as everyone will agree.
Everyone who's remotely interested in psychology will also agree:
"The first person reached the South Pole a month ago" simply doesn't hit any of us with the same strength and therefore doesn't affect us the same way as knowing quickly.
We live in a world with a fourth dimension: time.
(you'll notice this topic is dead due to my response coming a day later. I'd expect that changes how it's viewed, the impact of what's being said and so on. Again, timing matters)
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Comment on Alerts fatigue, or would that be journalism fatigue? in ~news
nacho Link ParentI don't have notifications for almost anything on my phone. I want to be present in my life, not being interrupted all the time. Even so, I'd argue it's important that we pay attention to what...I don't have notifications for almost anything on my phone. I want to be present in my life, not being interrupted all the time.
Even so, I'd argue it's important that we pay attention to what happens in the world around us. I'd argue the US bombing Iran is precisely the type of thing it's important to know about then and there.
These are moments like 9/11, US invasion of Iraq, the Boxing Day tsunami, The 2005 Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Cyclone Nargis, the Wenchuan earthquake, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, The 2008 US financial collapse in September, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the Smolensk airplane crash, the Deepwater Horizon spill, the Fukushima nuclear meltdown and so on.
Phones sometimes throttle or delay notifications due to the jungle of spam people receive. My one notification on Iran was not shown to me before 3 hours later. That was 2 hours after I was at work and present due to the nature of the industry I work in and the all-hands situation that followed.
It's imperative for the rights, dignity and well-being of people all around the world that we care about people and the crises and conflicts that dominate the lives of millions.
In 1937 Norwegian poet Arnulf Øverland wrote:
You mustn't endure so sincerely well the injustice that doesn't affect yourself!
The consequences of civic apathy, relinquishing society to only the most engaged can be dire. The world needs you, your wife and all the other sensible people.
If we don't talk about these topics in our lives, we end up with populists, extremists and egotistical societies that enable bad people.
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Comment on Thousands protest Bulgaria’s euro adoption and call for a referendum in ~society
nacho Link ParentLooking directly at DKK to SEK from 2017 (where the Trump and China shenanigans starts), then again from the full scale war in Ukraine from 2022, we see the long-term trend that squeezes the...Looking directly at DKK to SEK from 2017 (where the Trump and China shenanigans starts), then again from the full scale war in Ukraine from 2022, we see the long-term trend that squeezes the Non-Euro currency.
The trend for DKK to NOK follows a similar pattern, and NOK being a heavily oil and gas currency, that's rather unexpected with the huge increase in Brent Crude oil, and natural gas prices ( the Dutch TTF EUR/MWh being the most relevant measure), we might expect the Norwegian kroner to have strengthened itself.
However, quite the opposite has happened: volatility and interest rates means that the global currency markets are demonstrably avoiding at least these two currencies: A more uncertain world means a smaller currency is riskier.
I agree with your analysis on tourism and exports.
However, when you don't control your currency, you don't control central bank interest rates, and that can create a host of issues in internal markets. Smaller countries are almost never self-reliant in multiple sectors, and so they're also reliant on well-functioning world trade to be in the best economic position domestically.
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Comment on Thousands protest Bulgaria’s euro adoption and call for a referendum in ~society
nacho Link ParentFor Bulgaria with a Euro-pegged currency, the issue at hand isn't monetary policy or currency. It's simply a matter of European integration or not. I'd say it looks like a non-starter from the...For Bulgaria with a Euro-pegged currency, the issue at hand isn't monetary policy or currency. It's simply a matter of European integration or not.
I'd say it looks like a non-starter from the outside: Russia will not acknowledge Bulgaria and its autonomy in a way to be reliably trusted in the next decades as things look today.
Therefore, the obvious choice is EU-integration. Having the Euro seems like a no-brainer for Bulgaria.
If Bulgarias currency was free-floating, as with all things currency, it depends. On the world economy, on who you are, on whether we're looking at employment, investment, for government/public spending, for interest rates, purchasing power and so on.
The timing (and therefore rate of the peg) is also determining in many respects.
We have an interesting real world EU example here:
Neither Sweden nor neighboring Denmark have the Euro. They both have their own small country currency: The Krone. However, the Danish krone is pegged to the Euro, the Swedish krone is not.
Early reports this summer are that the Danish krone is so strong that tourists from both Sweden and Norway are coming in much lesser numbers than usual, potentially a tourism industry problem for some size in Denmark.
I think arguments can be made that small currencies are becoming less and less invested in. As international economic order has deteriorated under Trump and Chinese market exclusions the last years, I don't think we can expect small currencies to function as the have in the first 20 years of this millennium.
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Comment on US Supreme Court upholds Tennessee ban on youth gender-affirming care in ~lgbt
nacho Link ParentI have pro-LGBT relatives who work in medicine who say this is arguably right. Especially considering things like long-term effects and "well-being" and other psychosocial effects that take years...I would have expected that in the case of HRT this would have been easy to scientifically disprove as experimental to the Supreme Court.
I have pro-LGBT relatives who work in medicine who say this is arguably right. Especially considering things like long-term effects and "well-being" and other psychosocial effects that take years to manifest and potentially on the order of decades of study to see the long-term effects.
It's a self-fulfilling situation: because we have to "protect the children" from experimental medical treatment, we never get the experiments done required to test treatment for trans youth.
Trans treatment is exactly the reverse of cancer research, where there's very little to lose with a terminal diagnosis with traditional treatment. In that scenario, trying out experimental treatments leads the patient with everything to gain and very little to lose.
However, I agree with others who don't think The Supreme Court cares about the science at all but just struck it down based on ideology.
Many other European countries have announced the same. There is no system for handling tarrifstolls packages worth less than a dollar value threshold, so postal services don't know what to do.
Royal Mail (UK), Belgian, Norwegian, Danish, Swedish, Luxembourg mail services, Australian Mail, Canada Mail, reportedly some DHL services, the list has been growing steadily the last couple of days.
There are a host of news articles about this. I can't seem to find anyone attempting to give an overview of all areas impacted though.