For those curious, the colored lines in the graphs labeled RCP2.6, etc. are four different climate models that make different assumptions about emissions, land use, etc. The source material is a...
For those curious, the colored lines in the graphs labeled RCP2.6, etc. are four different climate models that make different assumptions about emissions, land use, etc. The source material is a paper talking about how these models were developed. Basically, they dug through all the models in the literature, selected four that span the gamut of outcome of radiative forcing projection to the year 2100, and worked with the models originators to develop a uniform data set for each model. The grey shaded areas represent the 90th and 95th percentiles of all the models from the literature, to show how the RCPs span the projection space.
Just came across this and wanted to say thanks for writing this up, I learned a lot by reading it and following some of your links. Nice to see another entry in the "Layman's Guide" too.
Just came across this and wanted to say thanks for writing this up, I learned a lot by reading it and following some of your links. Nice to see another entry in the "Layman's Guide" too.
I was interested in the relationship between radiative forcing and temperature change, because this is what I usually hear about. I couldn't find much, but in this collection of articles about...
I was interested in the relationship between radiative forcing and temperature change, because this is what I usually hear about. I couldn't find much, but in this collection of articles about radiative forcing on Science Direct might be helpful, particularly the part titled Instantaneous and Effective RF, and Climate Response that has this diagram the red arrow represents the initial perturbation of the radiative nature of the climate system, i.e. it radiates more or less energy than before. The blue arrow represents the fast (two weeks) response due to atmospheric changes while the gray arrow represents the slow response (ten years) due to oceanic response.
If I have it right, basically, the surface temperature must increase to reach equilibrium with the greater energy being re–radiated from the atmosphere. But earth is complex and stores a lot of energy in the oceans, so it takes a long time for this to manifest, even though the radiative forcing is already happening. I think this is what it means when people say we've already "signed up" for a certain amount of temperature increase no matter what we do now.
For those curious, the colored lines in the graphs labeled RCP2.6, etc. are four different climate models that make different assumptions about emissions, land use, etc. The source material is a paper talking about how these models were developed. Basically, they dug through all the models in the literature, selected four that span the gamut of outcome of radiative forcing projection to the year 2100, and worked with the models originators to develop a uniform data set for each model. The grey shaded areas represent the 90th and 95th percentiles of all the models from the literature, to show how the RCPs span the projection space.
Just came across this and wanted to say thanks for writing this up, I learned a lot by reading it and following some of your links. Nice to see another entry in the "Layman's Guide" too.
I was interested in the relationship between radiative forcing and temperature change, because this is what I usually hear about. I couldn't find much, but in this collection of articles about radiative forcing on Science Direct might be helpful, particularly the part titled Instantaneous and Effective RF, and Climate Response that has this diagram the red arrow represents the initial perturbation of the radiative nature of the climate system, i.e. it radiates more or less energy than before. The blue arrow represents the fast (two weeks) response due to atmospheric changes while the gray arrow represents the slow response (ten years) due to oceanic response.
If I have it right, basically, the surface temperature must increase to reach equilibrium with the greater energy being re–radiated from the atmosphere. But earth is complex and stores a lot of energy in the oceans, so it takes a long time for this to manifest, even though the radiative forcing is already happening. I think this is what it means when people say we've already "signed up" for a certain amount of temperature increase no matter what we do now.