14 votes

General equilibrium effects of cash transfers: experimental evidence from Kenya

3 comments

  1. Amarok
    (edited )
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    From the abstract: The short version: This study, the largest of its kind ever performed, handily shoots down all of the objections we usually see raised when discussing cash transfers as a...

    From the abstract:

    How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local fiscal multiplier of 2.6. We interpret welfare implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.

    The short version: This study, the largest of its kind ever performed, handily shoots down all of the objections we usually see raised when discussing cash transfers as a solution to poverty, including common arguments against universal basic income such as runaway inflation. I'd urge everyone to read it when you find the time, it's an eye opener.

    Edit: The link moved, this is its new home.

    https://www.givedirectly.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/General-Equilibrium-Effects-of-Cash-Transfers.pdf

    7 votes
  2. wakamex
    (edited )
    Link
    This research studied the charity of a foundation called GiveDirectly that specializes in cash transfers, and studying their effects. One of the authors is its co-founder. I recently stumbled...

    This research studied the charity of a foundation called GiveDirectly that specializes in cash transfers, and studying their effects. One of the authors is its co-founder.

    I recently stumbled across this foundation in this GiveWell blog post of their 2019 top charities. I found this to be by far the most compelling on the list, both for their direct impact, and their support of research like this, which can go a long way to dispelling myths, and supporting more evidence-based charity as well as policies in developed countries like universal basic income.

    They also have a page called GDLive in beta, which lists unedited survey responses to questions like personal impact, what could be improved, what the money was spent on, etc. If I find myself catastrophising my own problems, I find going there helps put my own problems into perspective, reminding me how privileged I am to have won the global birth lottery to have been born to hard-working immigrants that had the education and means to move to Canada (noticing the "invisible things that make my life easier" which "explains why most of us aren’t nearly as grateful as we ought to be" Freakonomics: Why Is My Life So Hard?). It's shocking to see how much of a life-altering difference a cash donation can make to these people, in amounts that often seem paltry to me.

    6 votes