3 votes

Back of the Envelope: COVID-19

2 comments

  1. cfabbro
    Link
    Not according to the WHO it's not. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf That turns out to be roughly accurate though. Median is...

    The mortality rate of COVID-19 is about 1%;

    Not according to the WHO it's not.

    Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf

    Time from infection to death is about 3 weeks, say 20 days.

    That turns out to be roughly accurate though. Median is supposedly 14 days, 20 days for <70 year olds, 11.5 for >70.

    The median number of days from the occurence of the first symptom to death was 14.0 (range 6‐41) days, and it tended to be shorter among people aged 70 years or more (11.5 [range 6‐19] days) than those aged less than 70 years (20 [range 10‐41] days; P = .033).

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689

    6 votes
  2. RiderOfGiraffes
    Link
    This is not a complex or sophisticated simulation or projection. This is just the simplest thing I could think of to get a handle on what's happening. It's terrifying. People ... self-isolate,...

    This is not a complex or sophisticated simulation or projection. This is just the simplest thing I could think of to get a handle on what's happening.

    It's terrifying.

    People ... self-isolate, wash your hands, practise social distancing.

    It won't be enough, but everything will help.

    1 vote