14 votes

Pakistan's military strategy and assets - risks, challenges, forces and equipment

8 comments

  1. [5]
    l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page. ... If there is one thing...

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    ...

    If there is one thing that the last few years have served to highlight, it's how fragile peace (or at least the absence of active kinetic action) can be.

    Early May has already seen a series of cross-border strikes exchanged between two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, and the world is now waiting to see if an agreed ceasefire will hold.

    I've been working on an episode on an episode on Pakistan since late 2024 to go along with my original video on India ( • Indian Defence Strategy - Forces, Pot... ) and had intended to release it later in 2025. Given the circumstances though, I thought it would be worthwhile to bring the release forward and I hope it can provide some useful context.

    it will probably be some time yet before there is enough reliable evidence out there to confidently parse what happened with the recent strikes and draw any lessons learned. When I think that can be done, I'll consider a follow up video. Until then, I hope you find this big picture view of one of the world's nuclear powers valuable.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing (To be expanded due to late release) :

    Unless otherwise indicated, platform and system counts are per MB2024 estimates

    Arms exports estimates per SIPRI https://www.sipri.org/databases/armst...

    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - Pakistan Nuclear Weapons 2023
    https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-...

    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - Pakistan Nuclear Weapons 2024
    https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-...

    IMF - Pakistan dataset
    https://www.imf.org/external/datamapp...

    IMF - India dataset
    https://www.imf.org/external/datamapp...

    Pakistan Debt to GDP ratio per Trading Economics (citing Central Bank of Pakistan)
    https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan...

    Carnegie Endowment - Pakistan nuclear use doctrine (2016)
    https://carnegieendowment.org/researc...

    Reporting on Pakistan naval modernisation plans
    https://www.defensenews.com/naval/202...
    https://www.defensenews.com/naval/202...
    https://www.defensenews.com/smr/defen...

    Special message by Lt. Gen. (Retd) Khalid Kidwai
    • Special message by Lt. Gen. (Retd) Kh...

    Lt General (Retd) Khalid Kidwai: Deterrence, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control – Keynote Address
    • Lt General (Retd) Khalid Kidwai: Dete...

    Source for Yahya Khan quotes (1971 Times article)
    https://time.com/archive/6816116/the-...

    Sitara Noor - Pakistan's evolving nuclear doctrine
    https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-...

    Reporting on Indian control of water flows
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9...

    IISS (2022) - Why Pakistan’s first national-security policy matters for future regional stability
    https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/...

    Rabia Akhtar (2022) - Pakistan’s new National Security Policy: A step in the right direction
    By Rabia Akhtar
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...

    Reporting on recent India-Pakistan escalation:
    https://www.reuters.com/world/india/p...

    Caveats & Comments:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note, as always, that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way, including to inform any financial or other decisions, views, actions etc...

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:34 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:03:45 — History and Outlook
    00:13:32 — Objectives and Doctrine
    00:17:46 — Pakistan Army
    00:21:22 — Pakistan Air Force
    00:26:51 — Pakistan Navy
    00:30:16 — Evaluating the Conventional Balance
    00:31:01 — the Nuclear Deterrent & Doctrine
    00:47:24 — Pakistan's Problems
    00:50:02 — Problem 2: Economics
    00:57:23 — Problem 3: Reliance & Arms Imports
    00:59:18 — Risks and a Way Forward
    01:01:46 — Channel Update

    5 votes
    1. [4]
      CptBluebear
      Link Parent
      It's fun (in a very troubling way) that Perun is unable to publish the episodes in his chosen order because some seismic geopolitical shift forces him to push up his agenda. This has been...

      It's fun (in a very troubling way) that Perun is unable to publish the episodes in his chosen order because some seismic geopolitical shift forces him to push up his agenda. This has been happening more than half the time in the last 10 episodes.

      8 votes
      1. [3]
        l_one
        Link Parent
        Like the old Chinese curse: we are living in Interesting Times. I liked it better when times were less interesting.

        Like the old Chinese curse: we are living in Interesting Times.

        I liked it better when times were less interesting.

        8 votes
        1. [2]
          PuddleOfKittens
          Link Parent
          I think the better phrase is: In the last ~4 months we've seen China/Korea/Japan start working together against the US, the EU split off from the US, the US sanction itself, and India/Pakistan go...

          I think the better phrase is:

          There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

          In the last ~4 months we've seen China/Korea/Japan start working together against the US, the EU split off from the US, the US sanction itself, and India/Pakistan go to war (again). And we're not even halfway through the year.

          4 votes
          1. l_one
            Link Parent
            Ok, yeah. That phrase fits MUCH better for this nightmare of a timeline.

            Ok, yeah. That phrase fits MUCH better for this nightmare of a timeline.

            1 vote
  2. [3]
    WobblesdasWombat
    (edited )
    Link
    A bit of a tanget: can someone give a quick "why should I trust the YT creator" summary? I've found a lot of folks making content for areas that require high judgment to analyze correctly....

    A bit of a tanget: can someone give a quick "why should I trust the YT creator" summary?

    I've found a lot of folks making content for areas that require high judgment to analyze correctly. Especially in the finance, geopolitics, and tech spaces. I've found 2 annoying trends that makes me cautious 1. Random folks with high view counts and polished videos giving superficial or incorrect analyses. (Most tech content, esp about AI) 2. Authoritative voices with hard baked paradigms that aren't stated, but you figure out over time (Wendover, Patrick Boyle, et al.) I'm getting more cautious about the opinions I pour into my head, especially in areas I have limited exposure to.

    Edit: gammerz

    3 votes
    1. [2]
      CptBluebear
      Link Parent
      Well.. you shouldn't. And Perun is probably the first to tell you so, which he actually repeats frequently. He's clear about it being entertainment first and he makes a point about when things are...

      Well.. you shouldn't. And Perun is probably the first to tell you so, which he actually repeats frequently. He's clear about it being entertainment first and he makes a point about when things are speculative or an assumption in his videos before divulging. That aside, he does always source his reasoning and those can be found in the dooblydoo underneath his videos. Clear assertions or statements are corroborated by these sources and it's not often (if at all) that he states something without backing it up.

      Even so he does have actual hands-on experience in the Australian Military with focus on procurement. Many of his videos focus on defense economics and procurement over general defense and geopolitics -though it's impossible to separate those entirely- but the former is definitely in his wheelhouse. His authoritative voice seems to come from a place of experience. Not much else is known about him specifically as he prefers keeping private, but that experience is the thing he himself opened up about. Whether or not that's true is anyone's guess, but with three years running posting weekly videos he's been consistently able to prove himself by not chasing the latest trend and waiting to see how current events play out before making a video. There's an obvious slant towards the west and doesn't shy away from giving his opinion, but doesn't let that get in the way of using factual datasets to make a point even if that's critical of western armies (Canada and Germany being prime examples of horrifying military procurement).

      I'd recommend giving it a watch every once in a while and you'll notice that he's more interested in remaining truthful over sensational. Ultimately it's up to your own judgment.

      5 votes
      1. l_one
        Link Parent
        Stated far better than I could, thank you CptBluebear.

        Stated far better than I could, thank you CptBluebear.

        3 votes