l_one's recent activity
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Comment on The war in Ukraine after the US election - Joe Biden's final moves, President Donald Trump and Ukraine in ~society
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The war in Ukraine after the US election - Joe Biden's final moves, President Donald Trump and Ukraine
4 votes -
Comment on I've added ~society for topics related to politics, law, policies, and similar societal-level subjects in ~tildes.official
l_one LinkQuestion for content I post every Sunday. I watch Perun on YouTube - he does defense economics analysis and produces a weekly 1-hour defense economics video every Sunday looking into various...Question for content I post every Sunday.
I watch Perun on YouTube - he does defense economics analysis and produces a weekly 1-hour defense economics video every Sunday looking into various different topics.
Currently I post these to ~misc. Does this content fall into the domain of the new ~society area, or is it far enough removed as to still be under the auspices of misc?
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Comment on Rocket artillery and the war in Ukraine - Evolution, effectiveness and development trends in ~misc
l_one LinkDescription copied from Perun's. Links do not copy properly, please use the links on the YouTube description area. On this channel we've spent a bit of time looking at systems that have...Description copied from Perun's. Links do not copy properly, please use the links on the YouTube description area.
On this channel we've spent a bit of time looking at systems that have underperformed (or are claimed to have underperformed) in Ukraine against the backdrop of a changing battlefield and the rising prominence of newer systems like drones and loitering munitions.
Multiple Rocket Launchers (MRLs) don't appear to fall into that category.
From the US designed HIMARS and M270s to some of Russia's own, dangerous systems, MRLs have played a major role in Ukraine and are the subject of intense development and procurement activity around the world.
In this episode, I look at their development, doctrine, use in Ukraine, and ask what might be next for these dangerous battlefield systems.
Patreon:
/ perunauReading and Sourcing (incomplete):
SIPRI Arms transfer databases
https://www.sipri.org/databasesFM6-60 (1996) Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) Operations
https://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd...Use of Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS)
in Military Operations on Urbanized Terrain (MOUT)
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA397...RUSI - MLRS & the totality of the battlefield (early 2023)
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research...ER GMLRS enters production
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024...Rosoboronexport official figures on Grad characteristics
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-force...Featured image of ATACMS strike on GBAD battery
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ata...Thundart
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...K239 ASBM Offering
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...Hanwha Aerospace unmanned MRL concept
https://www.asianmilitaryreview.com/2...TASS on HIMARS claim
https://tass.com/politics/1808787KDI cluster munition at ADEX 2023 - EDR
https://www.edrmagazine.eu/mass-versu...Reporting on PRSM
https://www.defensenews.com/global/as...Reporting on Rocket motor production
https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...https://www.defenseone.com/business/2...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:09 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:10 — History
00:03:26 — Early Concepts
00:07:03 — Ww2 Developments
00:12:34 — Cold War
00:19:54 — Enter MLRS
00:24:13 — Doctrine & Concept
00:33:22 — Russian Usage
00:40:54 — Ukrainian Usage
00:45:20 — Primary Competitors
00:48:32 — Trend 1: More Mobile Rocketry
00:50:48 — Trend 2: Diversified Payloads
00:53:05 — Trend 3: Extended Reach
00:55:40 — A Case For A Reduced Precision?
01:01:19 — Channel Update -
Rocket artillery and the war in Ukraine - Evolution, effectiveness and development trends
7 votes -
Comment on American election mental health thread in ~health.mental
l_one (edited )Link ParentThere are additional points to explore. All is not lost, all is never lost (unless and until the human race dies - if there is literally no-one left, then fine, all is literally lost). While...There are additional points to explore. All is not lost, all is never lost (unless and until the human race dies - if there is literally no-one left, then fine, all is literally lost). While trite, 'where there is life, there is hope' is still true.
There are elements that can be woven into a society to inoculate it against such attacks.
WEALTH EQUALITY - the better the wealth equality of a society, the higher the average standard of living is, the less severe and widespread the discontent will be which such demagogues prey upon. We have quite severe wealth inequality in the USA, and that has been part of what enabled trump.
WIDESPREAD QUALITY OF EDUCATION FOR ALL, FROM THE RICHEST TO THE POOREST - 'Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it' - that quote could not be more perfectly apt for this situation. By complete coincidence, Project 2025 lists the removal of the department of education as a priority. Can't have the unwashed masses even conceiving that life might be better if things were different, and from that awareness, daring to ask for change.
As a subsection of education, a high quality course on civics, taught EVERY YEAR FROM KINDERGARDEN TO 12TH GRADE IN EVERY PUBLIC SCHOOL, with an unfiltered view of the harsh, violent past we have endured and on/off overcome (politics, civil rights, bodily autonomy, gender and racial equality as related to voting rights, etc...) would yield a huge, lasting resistance to such attacks on our society. Again, I refer to the completely coincidental priority of the dismantling of the department of education.
NEWS MEDIA - THE FAIRNESS DOCTRINE and/or other enforceable bindings on news entities that have penalties for lying to the public, insinuating mis and dis-information, and otherwise acting less in the role of informing the public, and more in the role of constant partisan propaganda. This would need to be done with care and force, and would largely depend on having very good structure to make abuse (silencing or intimidating legitimate press) as difficult and unlikely as possible. It would be neither easy, nor simple.
Our news media has become more and more polarized as hyper-capitalist 'whatever gets more views and more money is best' naturally lends itself to sensationalism, shock, rage, blood and division. The more outrage that can be engendered, the more watch time and ad-revenue you can generate. This is good for profits. This is not good for society. Those last two sentences lead to the next point:
DISENTANGLE PROFIT-MOTIVE FROM PUBLIC WORKS - when I say 'public works' in this instance I refer to anything that the primary purpose is for the good of society as a whole. The US Postal Service is a fairly good example. Healthcare (we do a terrible job here - full regulatory capture by for profit entities has well sunk in). Practically anything that goes under the umbrella of 'infrastructure' - roads, bridges, telecommunications and other utilities (I consider telecom to be a utility), clean uncontaminated drinking water, energy reliability, public transportation, food reliability / food affordability... the list goes on, with some items being more clear-cut than others, and some items only having a so/so intersection between public works and 'this is reasonable to be private sector / for-profit' - life isn't simple, and neither are these issues.
There are more. Some are more fundamental, other are more tertiary.
EDIT: probably my most important bit of advice to share for our current circumstances.
The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Don't look at these ideas and goals and feel defeated at the unachievable scope and insurmountable roadblocks that bar your way. Can you improve literally anything on a small scale, local to you. Can you attend county-level meetings that discuss your school board? Can you talk with your local newspaper or TV station? Can you vote in the smallest-scale, local elections? Are you willing to attend a protest? Just one?
Don't give up because you can't achieve the whole, can't enact every ideal. Do what you can, where you can, when you can. Even if it is very small. Something is more than nothing, and the perfect is the enemy of the good.
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Comment on American election mental health thread in ~health.mental
l_one Link ParentFor populist autocratic demagogues such as trump, their path to power has been long tested and proven throughout history. Appeal to the common man, speak to their hardships, speak to their angers...- Exemplary
How does a majority of the country ... "yes, that's the person I want"?
For populist autocratic demagogues such as trump, their path to power has been long tested and proven throughout history.
Appeal to the common man, speak to their hardships, speak to their angers and hatred.
Promise them you will better their lives, alleviate their hardships, and strike violently at the targets of their anger and hate. Stoke the anger.
Decry non-supporters as traitors. Take credit for everything good, blame all ills and failures on the opposition, vilifying them.
Explain away that anything you have made worse is the fault of the opposition, and the only reason things got worse in the first place is that you have not yet been given enough power to forever solve the problem of your vile, evil political opponents, who are responsible for all wrongs in your supporters lives.
Maintain a track record of loyalty above all. Anyone, even at the top of your own party, who shows disloyalty, is quickly cast aside and labeled as traitor. Show everyone in all other positions of wealth, power, or authority, that loyalty alone will keep them safe. Loyalty alone will allow them to reap rewards. Loyalty alone will deliver them more wealth and power. Any failure of loyalty to the Leader will brand you as traitor, cast out, stripped of wealth, power, and possibly life itself.
Encourage and push your loyalists to aggressively witch-hunt for any hint of disloyalty, any lack of enthusiastic obedience. Constantly fear-monger to your base about the dire threat of the enemy within. Incite the mob, protect the mob from consequence while publicly lauding their righteousness, ensuring that those who could, potentially, dethrone you are constantly vigilant on your behalf, slathering to betray one another in pursuit of lavish rewards. By this manner, those in key positions of power beneath you cannot plot against you, lest any of their peers seize the opportunity to betray them for their own gain. Absolute power grows, division sown among any who could threaten your reign, and so much of the job of maintaining your power and the unquestioning, obedient loyalty of your base is fulfilled by the base itself, constantly on the watch for those they can accuse of 'witchcraft' and have them torn apart by the mob.
That is one of the basic paths to power. It pits brother against brother, neighbor against neighbor.
Slight variations on this path have been used over and over again throughout history. Because It Works.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of November 4 in ~society
l_one Link ParentThank you for the offer, I appreciate it.Thank you for the offer, I appreciate it.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of November 4 in ~society
l_one Link ParentHell, I won't feel like relaxing until inauguration day comes to a close on January 20th - with a presumed Harris win of course. If, by some twisted hellscape of a timeline, trump wins, then it...So, I won't be resting easy for several days at best, even if Harris wins. And I mean, January 6th and all.
Hell, I won't feel like relaxing until inauguration day comes to a close on January 20th - with a presumed Harris win of course.
If, by some twisted hellscape of a timeline, trump wins, then it may be time to ask for political refugee status in Canada.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of November 4 in ~society
l_one Link ParentMangy Fetlocks (Bruce W. Nelson) is also someone who made a song on this topic (and... hundreds?.. of others about this election cycle and trump. Here's his 2025 songMangy Fetlocks (Bruce W. Nelson) is also someone who made a song on this topic (and... hundreds?.. of others about this election cycle and trump.
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Comment on North Korean troops in Russia - North Korean shells, troops and Russian offensives in ~misc
l_one LinkDescription copied from Perun's. Links do not copy properly, please use the links on the YouTube description. The war in Ukraine has long been shaped by foreign support and intervention and...Description copied from Perun's. Links do not copy properly, please use the links on the YouTube description.
The war in Ukraine has long been shaped by foreign support and intervention and supplies and funding from their allies has been a major source of Ukrainian endurance.
But Russia has always had partners as well, and it looks like it may be North Korea, that is the first to take the step of sending large numbers of troops to support the war effort.
In this episode I explore the reports around this claimed North Korean deployment, put it into the context of ongoing Russian offensives and the ongoing American election, and try to turn the focus to the DPRK's less discussed but perhaps more decisive commitment... millions and millions of shells.
Patreon:
/ perunauReading and Sourcing (to be expanded, partial due to late release):
Reporting on DPRK shell supplies to Russia
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukra...https://www.csis.org/analysis/crossin...
Guseinova, Olena - North Korea's cooperation with Russia amid the war against Ukraine
https://shop.freiheit.org/#!/Publikat...https://kyivindependent.com/half-of-r...
Russian defence budget increase
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Sample reporting on DPRK troops in Russia
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
https://apnews.com/article/south-kore...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/wo...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/engli...
https://www.csis.org/analysis/north-k...
https://www.theatlantic.com/internati...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-nor...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Interfax - Chemezov on the Russian arms sector under high interest rate conditions
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp...US announces PDA drawdown
https://www.state.gov/united-states-a...Norway providing more air defence assistance for Ukraine
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt...https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyv...
ROK to send monitoring team to Ukraine
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/0...Reporting on Rate of Russian territorial advance in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-se...https://kyivindependent.com/for-2nd-t...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:17 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:32 — Setting The Context
00:08:34 — The Big Picture
00:11:30 — Race To Regenerate
00:16:33 — The Dprk Element
00:30:40 — DPRK Troops In Ukraine
00:38:25 — Does This Matter?
00:43:41 — Response Options
00:56:18 — Strategic Paralysis -
North Korean troops in Russia - North Korean shells, troops and Russian offensives
11 votes -
Comment on Hi, how are you? Mental health support and discussion thread (November 2024) in ~health.mental
l_one Link ParentYeah, I'm right there with you. It's not quite the same feeling as waiting to see if/when the world will end - I get that from climate change - but possibly along the lines of 'will this still be...Yeah, I'm right there with you. It's not quite the same feeling as waiting to see if/when the world will end - I get that from climate change - but possibly along the lines of 'will this still be a country I can live in / do I need to flee to Canada as a political refugee?
It's stressful and surreal.
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Comment on Cooking with black plastic is particularly crucial to avoid in ~health
l_one Link ParentTo prevent one lowest spot from getting any 'pool' of oil and causing a small gummy area instead of an even, thin layer.To prevent one lowest spot from getting any 'pool' of oil and causing a small gummy area instead of an even, thin layer.
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Comment on Cooking with black plastic is particularly crucial to avoid in ~health
l_one Link ParentOthers have already mentioned each of these, but I'll chip in as well. Cast Iron for the skillet. Season it properly (which is just washing / drying / oiling all the surface area / baking for a...Others have already mentioned each of these, but I'll chip in as well.
Cast Iron for the skillet. Season it properly (which is just washing / drying / oiling all the surface area / baking for a while at a certain temperature to harden the oil layer (with the skillet upside down) and you're all set. Lasts forever. You can abuse it, it can get rusted if abused badly (stripped of oil and left wet for very long periods) - but you can still fix it even then. You can wash it normally with soap and water when you need to (it may wear away at the seasoning layer, but you can re-apply that whenever). The cast iron is porous, so the best way to be sure you've dried it fully is just to put it on the stove on low heat for a bit and get evaporation to purge the water.
Bamboo cooking utensils. Bamboo is cheap and highly renewable, fairly durable, and you can wash / scrub / dry it as normal. Stuff can get stuck to it a bit, so you might need an abrasive scrub pad sometimes, but it has been fine for me.
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Comment on Why the US General in charge of nuclear weapons said he needs AI in ~tech
l_one Link ParentTerminator came to mind first for me, but yeah, WarGames too. What a wonderful timeline we are in. All the apocalyptic Sci-Fi stuff is becoming real now.Terminator came to mind first for me, but yeah, WarGames too.
What a wonderful timeline we are in. All the apocalyptic Sci-Fi stuff is becoming real now.
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Comment on Washington Post cancellations hit 250,000 – 10% of subscribers in ~society
l_one Link ParentI'm sure it will. I'm not sure if there is anything to be done about that. With the Washington Post now so visibly, unmistakably compromised, it simply isn't what it once was - and that is...I'm afraid it will just hurt The Post itself.
I'm sure it will. I'm not sure if there is anything to be done about that. With the Washington Post now so visibly, unmistakably compromised, it simply isn't what it once was - and that is incredibly harmful. This whole trend of consolidation and subversion of our news organizations is fundamentally damaging to our democracy. Yet another blow in a long series of blows.
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Comment on Washington Post cancellations hit 250,000 – 10% of subscribers in ~society
l_one LinkNot a surprise that people would be pissed at Bezos, though I doubt this hurts him all that much. Still, it is a visible protest and backlash. On a humorous, but perhaps not exactly related note,...Not a surprise that people would be pissed at Bezos, though I doubt this hurts him all that much. Still, it is a visible protest and backlash.
On a humorous, but perhaps not exactly related note, have a music video of Bezos being a rich evil dick.
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Comment on The misogynistic, bigoted and crude US rally remarks Donald Trump hasn’t disavowed in ~society
l_one Link....wow. Some of that was straight-up calls to political violence. I shouldn't be surprised at this point, I really shouldn't, but I guess I had a little bit of disbelief left in me. We really.......wow. Some of that was straight-up calls to political violence. I shouldn't be surprised at this point, I really shouldn't, but I guess I had a little bit of disbelief left in me.
We really need some updates to the infrastructure of our democracy. Our current electoral system, which allows for the possibility of a mismatch between the popular vote and electoral vote, is antiquated and no longer relevant in the age of telecommunications.
We also really need to switch over to some variation on ranked choice voting. The current system naturally trends towards creating a 2 party system with polarized opposite extremes. RCV allows for multiple candidates to remain viable and also allows people to choose a more moderate, middle of the road candidate, which further encourages less divisive campaign and election cycles.
That's my two cents. Remove the electoral college and institute nationwide ranked choice voting.
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Comment on Canadian defence strategy and issues - Procurement disasters, the Arctic and alliances in ~misc
l_one Link ParentI think u/kingofsnake was implying the same thing, just subtly and sardonically.I think u/kingofsnake was implying the same thing, just subtly and sardonically.
Description copied from Perun. Links do not copy properly, please use links on the YouTube page.
From the very beginning we've know that the war in Ukraine would turn on not just battlefield outcomes and bravery, but policy decisions made in foreign capitals.
With the election of Donald Trump, it's clear that US policy in Ukraine is about to shift. What is less clear is how and what the results will be.
And so today we discuss the closing moves of the Biden presidency and what some of the objectives and challenges might be for the Trump administration regarding Ukraine in 2025.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Reading and Sourcing (to be expanded) :
World Bank Group - Ukrainian Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment
https://documents1.worldbank.org/cura...
RUSI - Overcoming the Challenges of Building a Future Force for Ukraine
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
Macron and Starmer on Ukraine support
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8...
Biden authorizes Ukraine to uke long range weapons in Russia
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/17/po...
JD Vance on Ukraine - At Munich
https://www.vance.senate.gov/press-re...
Scholz calls Putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Zelensky says Trump Presidency means quicker end to war
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-Ne...
Reporting on Zelensky - Trump meeting
https://thehill.com/policy/internatio...
Pentagon funds remaining for Ukraine
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/pentagon-ha...
CSIS (2023) on the impact of halting US military aid to Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/impact-...
Russia media segments translated and posted by Julia Davis / Russia Media Monitor
https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews
• Russian state TV talks about Tulsi Ga...
https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1...
Two featured BI articles juxtaposing claims on Russian losses and recruitment
https://www.businessinsider.com/russi...
https://www.businessinsider.com/russi...
Ukraine 2025 budget
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Reporting on frozen Russian reserves
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Donald Trump Jr. on Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-new...
Australia to produce GMLRLS
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/09/l...
Trump names Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/11/nx-s1-...
Reporting on Putin demands to end the war (June)
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/11/nx-s1-...
University of Maryland critical issues polling
https://today.umd.edu/umd-critical-is...
Russian UN ambassador on peace prospects
https://apnews.com/article/trump-russ...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:19 — The Dynamics In Ukraine
00:06:45 — The Lame Duck Period
00:09:03 — The Escalation Window?
00:19:44 — A Likely Outcome?
00:22:13 — Future US Policy
00:24:29 — VP
00:25:32 — Senate Leader
00:27:54 — National Security Advisor
00:29:46 — Secretary Of Defence
00:32:26 — A Scale On Ukraine Aid
00:34:49 — The Role (And Potential) Of Europe
00:44:19 — The US Policy Context
00:46:53 — The Risk Of A Ceasefire
00:57:30 — An Optimistic Scenario?
01:00:30 — The Points To Watch
01:03:25 — Channel Update