l_one's recent activity

  1. Comment on The Ukraine war after Kursk - retreat, lessons, negotiations and the coming Russian offensive in ~misc

    l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page. In August 2024, Ukraine...

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    In August 2024, Ukraine seized hundreds of square kilometres of Russia's Kursk region in a surprise offensive. Now, more than six months later, the operation has mostly ended with a Ukrainian retreat to a small holding along the Ukrainian border.

    In this episode we look at the close of the campaign, lessons arising from it, and ask what might be coming next amidst U.S. lead negotiations and evidence of coming Russian offensive efforts.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing:

    Visually confirmed loss data generally per warspotting & Oryx as normal

    General territorial control mapping:
    https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/51.33...

    Percentage of regional control figures:
    https://www.warmapper.org/stats

    Kursk loss localisation figures:
    https://x.com/naalsio26

    Loss distribution maps per Lostarmor:
    https://lostarmour.info/

    defence mapping by @Playfra0
    https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1907182...

    Civilian vehicle loss split by @AndrewPerpetua
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1...

    wire laying UGV
    https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232...

    Carlson - Witkoff interview reported transcript
    https://detector.media/withoutsection...

    Reuters on Witkoff
    https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-e...

    The Birds becoming a brigade
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/1...

    Reporting on Kursk withdrawal
    https://kyivindependent.com/the-rise-...
    https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-...

    Russia planning to increase troops in Ukraine by 150,000
    https://kyivindependent.com/russia-pl...

    Ramstein pledges
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg...

    Brent crude price
    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodit...

    Urals reaches $53
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

    Russian Recruitment & Bonus Payments
    https://x.com/jakluge/status/19113715...
    https://vk.com/wall-150272757_54052
    https://www.businessinsider.com/russi...

    TASS on Russian UAS operations, Rubicon & Kursk
    https://tass.com/politics/1898715

    The Encirclement claim
    https://kyivindependent.com/trump-cla...

    Ukrainian reporting on M2 repairs
    https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrain...

    Other featured reports
    https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-o...
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
    https://kyivindependent.com/trump-off...
    https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-r...
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4...
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/0...

    Caveats & Comments:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:02:05 — Kursk Closes Out
    00:11:37 — Tactical Observations
    00:28:16 — Evaluating Kursk
    00:35:24 — Signs of More to Come
    00:45:51 — a Russian Offensive?
    00:45:59 — Motive
    00:47:58 — Urgency
    00:50:51 — Means
    00:58:25 — Will It Be Enough?
    01:00:59 — Channel Update

    2 votes

  3. Comment on Where do you all get your news from? How do you work to avoid echo chambers and propaganda? in ~life

    l_one
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    C-SPAN. They are dry, un-interpretive, and you're not likely to find anyone putting together concise summaries for you, but they are a very high standard for neutrality in my opinion. Edit: also,...

    So, I have yet to find an outlet that just informs, and nothing else.

    C-SPAN. They are dry, un-interpretive, and you're not likely to find anyone putting together concise summaries for you, but they are a very high standard for neutrality in my opinion.

    Edit: also, on the general topic of the intertwining of anger / hate / division / polarizing cultural issues with Left and Right leaning news media... this is one of the tools of political power. Tapping into anger, hatred, resentment etc... is a means of solidifying a hold on a voting base and retaining political sway with that base through the approach of cementing the impossibility of 'switching sides' for members of that base. Such tactics are seen with many political entities / parties / nations through history, because unfortunately they work. These tactics are not conducive to a healthy society or fair governance, but as a tool that works, it is all but guaranteed to get used. This does not excuse the act of using this tool of course, but it does explain it.

    The way to fight against such tactics isn't fast or easy. The way to fight it is widespread education from a young age on the history of such things, of critical thinking and understanding of such tactics and how governments / political parties / advertising / etc... seek to influence or control what people think and believe, so they see it happening and aren't so easily swayed. THIS TAKES DECADES. THIS TAKES GENERATIONS. As such it is a very vulnerable process. This is also why autocratic regimes seek to destroy educational institutions - the educated citizen is the enemy of the autocratic regime.

    7 votes

  4. Comment on Where do you all get your news from? How do you work to avoid echo chambers and propaganda? in ~life

    l_one
    Link Parent
    Yeah, I see this as the inevitable direction for... all other countries basically. Even Canada and Mexico. What I anticipate happening in the mid- to long-term future is a new global trade...

    Also please boycott us, it's fine, we deserve it as a nation. Maybe it's just the millennial in me but "we're trash" is a pretty standard vibe for the American left. (We could be better we keep not being better)

    Yeah, I see this as the inevitable direction for... all other countries basically. Even Canada and Mexico. What I anticipate happening in the mid- to long-term future is a new global trade reorganization that is, as a global community, exclusionary to the USA. Countries and companies are scrambling to maintain what they can with the USA... for the short term. In the long term, none of them want to deal with this crap and will absolutely be looking to set up trade relations and agreements that step away from the putrid fount of destructive chaos being shat out from the current US leadership.

    As a side-note, Putin is really, Really getting his return on investment on this one.

    8 votes

  5. Comment on US President Donald Trump announces pause in ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for all countries but China in ~society

    l_one
    Link Parent
    I could not possibly be less surprised by this.

    I could not possibly be less surprised by this.

    7 votes

  6. Comment on US President Donald Trump announces pause in ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for all countries but China in ~society

    l_one
    Link Parent
    This has been what I've seen as him doing for a while, if not the primary purpose, then certainly profiteering from the harm he's causing. Burn down the economy so he and his buddies can have a...

    This has been what I've seen as him doing for a while, if not the primary purpose, then certainly profiteering from the harm he's causing.

    Burn down the economy so he and his buddies can have a bonfire party around it.

    4 votes

  7. Comment on Murderbot | Official trailer in ~tv

    l_one
    Link
    I was expecting a more gender-ambiguous face and voice for Murderbot, but I will still certainly give this series a try. Absolutely love the books, and if I need to think of this as separate...

    I was expecting a more gender-ambiguous face and voice for Murderbot, but I will still certainly give this series a try. Absolutely love the books, and if I need to think of this as separate material to enjoy it, so be it.

    8 votes

  8. Comment on The new US tariffs - weird formulas, risks, and the coming trade war in ~finance

    l_one
    Link Parent
    Perun has quite excellent dry humor and often pairs it with well-done straight-man delivery.

    Perun has quite excellent dry humor and often pairs it with well-done straight-man delivery.

    5 votes

  9. Comment on The new US tariffs - weird formulas, risks, and the coming trade war in ~finance

    l_one
    Link Parent
    Thank you so much for providing fixed links. I know it's supposed to be fairly simple to do with Python, but I just have too much on my plate at the moment. Greatly appreciated u/synergy-unsterile.

    Thank you so much for providing fixed links. I know it's supposed to be fairly simple to do with Python, but I just have too much on my plate at the moment.

    Greatly appreciated u/synergy-unsterile.

    5 votes

  10. Comment on The new US tariffs - weird formulas, risks, and the coming trade war in ~finance

    l_one
    (edited )
    Link
    It's weird for me to be posting a Perun video in ~finance as they are more normally militarily oriented, but he is a defense economics analyst, so here we are looking at the latest round of...

    It's weird for me to be posting a Perun video in ~finance as they are more normally militarily oriented, but he is a defense economics analyst, so here we are looking at the latest round of Tariffs.

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    EDIT: Thank you u/synergy-unsterile for providing de-crappified link translations.

    For decades the U.S. has been a leading force in building the global free trade system. Today, we discuss it's effort to reshape it using tariffs and some very wonky math and what that move might mean for the world.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing :
    U.S. "Reciprocal Tariff Calculations" https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
    USGS - Mineral Summary 2023
    https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023.pdf

    U.S. BEA - Services Traders
    https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/05-may/0524-profile-services-traders.htm

    Trade Wars and How Nations Fight Them
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXGUGFncgk

    US Consumer Impact
    https://think.ing.com/articles/beautiful-tariffs-risk-turning-the-growth-outlook-ugly/

    WH Deputy Press Secretary post
    https://x.com/KushDesai47/status/1907618136444067901?t=9JG6Q5bhCP3VcQfTjAShlg&s=33

    U.S. Trade Rep pages
    https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
    https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/switzerland

    "Do not retaliate"
    https://www.foxnews.com/media/treasury-secretary-bessent-tells-countries-not-retaliate-after-sweeping-liberation-day-tariffs

    Polling on Trump policy areas and/or tariffs
    https://apnews.com/article/trump-poll-immigration-tariffs-trade-b7a430909606d6b8b27cfbc5049a32b4
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/17/trump-tariffs-recession-poll
    https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2025/03/fox_march-14-17-2025_national_topline_march-19-release.pdf
    https://www.reuters.com/default/trump-approval-falls-43-lowest-since-returning-office-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-04-02/

    Polling on retaliatory tariffs
    https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/2025/02/21/70-of-canadians-support-retaliatory-tariffs-on-united-states-poll
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/01/large-majority-of-europeans-support-retaliatory-tariffs-against-us-poll-finds

    Lesotho
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/apr/04/lesotho-garment-workers-reel-trump-tariffs

    European Commentary
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-will-buckle-under-pressure-if-europe-bands-together-over-tariffs-german-economy-minister.html
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-vows-to-retaliate-against-trumps-20-percent-tariffs/

    ASML exports to China
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/asml-chief-sees-us-pressure-building-for-more-china-restrictions?embedded-checkout=true

    US trade balance
    https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-to-know-about-the-u-s-trade-imbalance-in-charts-79b25c0bv
    https://www.afr.com/politics/the-statistic-australia-will-use-to-avoid-trump-s-tariffs-20250203-p5l941

    CSIS - "Mining for Defence"
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/mining-defense

    Allied Cooperation
    https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/us-and-australia-ink-critical-minerals-funding-pact-20240829-p5k6igv
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_25_563
    https://www.mining-technology.com/news/us-pledges-786m-to-australian-rare-earths-and-lithium-projects/

    Negotiations
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/vietnam-foreign-ministry-says-regrets-us-tariff-decision-2025-04-04/

    featured articles
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/balancing-ledger-export-controls-us-chip-technology-china
    https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/slamming-brakes-eu-votes-impose-tariffs-chinese-evs

    "Elbows up"
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/canada-united-states-travel.html
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/27/canada-us-flights-down-trump

    PRC Retaliation
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/china-hits-back-at-trump-tariffs-with-34-tax-on-us-goods-export-curbs

    PRC, ROK & JAPAN Trade Ministers' Meeting
    https://www.wsj.com/economy/china-says-it-is-aiming-to-coordinate-tariff-response-with-japan-south-korea-c7a19540

    Caveats & Comments:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note, as always, that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way, including to inform any financial or other decisions, views, actions etc...

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.

    11 votes

  12. Comment on Megathread: April Fools' Day 2025 on the internet in ~talk

    l_one
    Link Parent
    Yeah, I saw that while playing late last night and was confused at first, then realized it was already April 1st in other time zones.

    Yeah, I saw that while playing late last night and was confused at first, then realized it was already April 1st in other time zones.

  13. Comment on Planet Money buys a $137 diamond from Alibaba in ~finance

    l_one
    Link
    Ok, so, 2 points here. The price of diamonds is artificial - they are rather abundant. There is literally a world-wide diamond cartel that acts to enforce artificial scarcity and, through decades...
    • Exemplary

    Ok, so, 2 points here.

    1. The price of diamonds is artificial - they are rather abundant. There is literally a world-wide diamond cartel that acts to enforce artificial scarcity and, through decades upon decades of marketing, maintain demand. Through this, high prices (and therefore high profit) are (have been until now?) maintained. I do not have difficulty believing that Chinese companies could sell real diamonds for cheap and still profit, so long as they are willing to go against De Beers - and the CCCP has been aggressively protectionist about putting the success of their companies (and China's overall economic buildup) above things like international patent law, so I don't see them having a problem with bucking the diamond cartel.

    2. Diamonds can be manufactured. We have had the ability to produce diamonds on an industrial scale for quite a while now. I, personally, have the original patent application (currently stored with some of grandpa's other effects at my father's house) my grandfather made for a production method for artificial diamond - he made it sometime after the end of WWII if I remember correctly.

    Once in a while I kind of wonder if he came up with the original and was first to patent it, but I've never really bothered to investigate, and it's not like I want to pursue lawsuits and patent litigation and an income method... yuck.

    Um, just realized it's about to be April 1st in like an hour. The stuff about my Grandfather isn't an April Fools joke.

    Hmm, actually curious now and just did a patent search with his name. Not seeing it. I wonder if he didn't file the application - patent protection vs secrecy? Or maybe he sold it and just kept the original documents. Found some of his other stuff though. Apparently he designed an aerial-release bomb and donated patent use rights to the US Government a few years after WWII. Neat.

    6 votes

  14. Comment on Hi everyone! Wanted to share my electronics workbench. in ~hobbies

    l_one
    Link Parent
    Aww!! I don't think anyone has ever said that before. I also never really thought of my voice as being anything in particular - kind of more thought I was dry / robotically unemotional in my...

    Have you considered voice-over work or narration? Your voice is like ear butter.

    Aww!! I don't think anyone has ever said that before. I also never really thought of my voice as being anything in particular - kind of more thought I was dry / robotically unemotional in my speech most of the time.

    Thank you, that made me internally squee in joy just a bit.

    And no, never really considered voice work - see my prior statement on my perceived robotic-voice-ness. I'm glad you get something from it though.

    3 votes

  15. Comment on Hi everyone! Wanted to share my electronics workbench. in ~hobbies

    l_one
    Link Parent
    It's completely reasonable to keep stuff in storage if it's only getting used once in a while. Thanks for sharing, especially the pictures of some of your setups!

    It's completely reasonable to keep stuff in storage if it's only getting used once in a while. Thanks for sharing, especially the pictures of some of your setups!

    2 votes

  16. Comment on Hi everyone! Wanted to share my electronics workbench. in ~hobbies

    l_one
    (edited )
    Link
    I know there are a few other electronics / tech nerds here on Tildes as we've spoken before. Wanted to share my workbench with everyone as I just (finally) got a good take after many failed...

    I know there are a few other electronics / tech nerds here on Tildes as we've spoken before. Wanted to share my workbench with everyone as I just (finally) got a good take after many failed attempts.

    Anyone else here have a home electronics lab or bench? I'd love to see.

    Edit: I'm uncertain if I should have this here in ~creative, or if I should have posted in ~hobbies.

    4 votes

  18. Comment on Could you rearm Europe without US weapons? - Equipping a unified European military (April 1 special) in ~society

    l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page. One of the great challenges...

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    One of the great challenges European defence planners face is that defence procurement across the bloc is highly fragmented. There is no single Europe wide force or procurement effort to generate the kind of scales and efficiencies the USA, Russia or the PRC can.

    But what if there was?

    It's as close to April 1 as we're going to get this year, and so by popular vote, today we're taking a lighthearted look at the question of whether you could equip a pan-European Defence Force without importing any American platforms or major systems.

    Is all of Europe agreeing to standardise their equipment realistic? no.

    But does it illustrate some interesting points about the capabilities and limits of Europe's Defence Industry? Let's find out...

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing:

    Sources, in an April 1 style episode?

    Caveats & Comments:
    Unfortunate these are still required for a joke episode, but here we go:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:22 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:01:54 — the Brief
    00:06:02 — Force Design
    00:10:35 — the Navy
    00:26:08 — the Air Force
    00:30:08 — What About the UK?
    00:38:30 — the Ground Forces
    00:58:57 — Covering the Last Few Participants
    01:00:39 — Conclusions
    01:04:29 — Channel Update

    2 votes

  20. Comment on Global arms exports - the trends, winners and losers in 2024 and the outlook for 2025 in ~misc

    l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page. Between the Russian invasion...

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    Between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a general shift in focus for many militaries towards conventional deterrence and warfighting rather than counterinsurgency operations, recent years have seen strong demand for major platforms and weapon systems.

    Now, with help of newly released data on 2024 exports and imports from SIPRI, I want to unpack the trends we observed in 2024 and ask what we might expect to see in 2025 as spending levels rise and trans-Atlantic tensions challenge old buying patterns.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing :

    Primary source for arms transfer data is the relevant SIPRI databases:
    https://armstransfers.sipri.org/ArmsT...

    Janes on Algerian purchase of the Su-57
    https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...

    Craig Kennedy on Russian War Financing
    https://navigatingrussia.substack.com...

    French spy sat launch
    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news...

    Jamestown foundation on Rostec revenues and profit levels
    https://jamestown.org/program/rostecs...

    "Swiss weapons must not be used in wars"
    https://www.voanews.com/a/swiss-presi...

    Reporting on Swiss arms export restrictions
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

    Indian order for AL-31FP engines
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/as...

    Reporting on European single defence market
    https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

    EU 2030 time horizon
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

    Reporting on President Trump's F-47 comments
    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-t...

    Reporting on EU arms purchase focus
    https://apnews.com/article/eu-defense...

    Macron on defence spending targets
    https://www.politico.eu/article/macro...

    Reporting on PRC drone production
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1...

    Poland's F-35s
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/eu...

    Mauritanian PRC SAMs
    https://armyrecognition.com/news/army...

    EU Member defence spending
    https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/po...

    Rocket motor production
    https://www.defenseone.com/business/2...

    Qatar receives Eurofighters (2022)
    https://www.edrmagazine.eu/qatar-rece...

    Saudi Arabia receives European Corvettes
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...

    Caveats & Comments:

    Please consider familiarising yourself with SIPRI's methodology on the creation of its arms transfer and other databases:
    https://www.sipri.org/databases/armst...

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:00:52 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:02:49 — Data and Methodology
    00:04:35 — 2024
    00:12:34 — Russia
    00:23:20 — United States
    00:29:25 — Europe
    00:34:43 — China
    00:40:52 — Other Players
    00:45:29 — a Boom Not Captured?
    00:50:24 — the Path Forward
    00:56:37 — Channel Update

    1 vote