l_one's recent activity
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Comment on 'Dungeon Crawler Carl' TV series lands at Peacock in ~tv
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Comment on How will the Iran War reshape arms exports? - Missile consumption, emergency sales and the supply gap in ~society
l_one Link ParentUkraine is now the leading edge in military drone tech and personnel with drone combat experience - and everything we are seeing says that drones are the future of warfare. This new reality of...Ukraine is now the leading edge in military drone tech and personnel with drone combat experience - and everything we are seeing says that drones are the future of warfare.
This new reality of drone warfare is pretty scary in terms of cost vs capability and what a threat actor can do with minimal resources.
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Comment on How will the Iran War reshape arms exports? - Missile consumption, emergency sales and the supply gap in ~society
l_one LinkSorry, no proper links in the description, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links. ... When countries can fire off...Sorry, no proper links in the description, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links.
...
When countries can fire off years of missile production in a matter of weeks, who fills the gap?
With the war in the Middle East seeing munitions expended by the thousands, that's a question that's likely to shape parts of the arms market for years to come.
And so today I look at some estimates of how the first few weeks of the war have burned through munition stocks, how nations have already started searching for replacements, and what that might mean for an air-defence market that was already struggling to keep pace with demands driven by the war in Ukraine and European rearmament.
Patreon:
/ perunauReading and Sourcing (Partial due to late release)
Unless otherwise noted, arms transfer data per SIPRI
https://www.sipri.org/databasesRUSI - Macdonald Amoah, Morgan D. Bazilian and Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek - Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...Reference for higher Tomahawk consumption estimate
https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s...U.S. State Department - arms transfers and defence trade statistics FY2025
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau...EU SAFE plan
https://defence-industry-space.ec.eur...US Advances 23 billion in arms for mideast countries - WSJ ( Perun note, I can only find specific announcements for a fraction of that amount)
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran...UAE FMS - THAAD
https://www.state.gov/united-arab-emi...UAE FMS - FS-LIDS
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau...Kuwait FMS - LTAMDS
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau...NATO arms imports doubled in past five years with 60% sourced from the US
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20...UAE use of Korean Cheongung-II
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/cheong...Reporting on IRIS-T production
https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...India orders S-400 missiles
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/india-...RTX on production ramp targets
https://www.rtx.com/news/news-center/...Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:57 — the "Squeezes"
00:06:47 — the Impact of Iran
00:26:16 — the Push to Localise
00:31:02 — Where Does This Matter?
00:32:17 — Air Defence Deficits
00:48:13 — Where Are We Going?
00:50:20 — Channel Update -
How will the Iran War reshape arms exports? - Missile consumption, emergency sales and the supply gap
12 votes -
Comment on Interesting material types for fantasy resources/macguffins other than crystals or metals? in ~creative
l_one Link ParentSanderson has been pretty creative about magic systems. In Warbreaker the essence of magic was the personal ownership and vibrancy of colors.Sanderson has been pretty creative about magic systems. In Warbreaker the essence of magic was the personal ownership and vibrancy of colors.
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Comment on OpenAI shuts down Sora AI video, Disney drops planned $1B investment in ~tech
l_one LinkI'm not particularly surprised by this. For the enshittification path it is expected to see free things become paid for / cheap, then cheap things become expensive, etc.. In this specific case and...I'm not particularly surprised by this. For the enshittification path it is expected to see free things become paid for / cheap, then cheap things become expensive, etc..
In this specific case and for AI in general I always thought all the free and to a lesser extent, the cheap AI stuff available online was to serve as a technology testbed, gather further training data, and get people to want / get used to those services - and to only be temporary until enough of those goals were met.
I'd guess they feel they have sufficient training data as at least part of the explanation. Another part is likely that companies see that the path of greatest profit is military applications as they can just say 'we have to get there first' and 'existential threat for someone else to get further than us' etc... while getting the defense department to turn on the money firehose.
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Comment on Seth MacFarlane teases new life for ‘The Orville’: “Season 4 is written” in ~tv
l_one Link ParentI did read that, and yes, we do agree on a great deal there. I miss TNG/DS9 era Trek.I did read that, and yes, we do agree on a great deal there.
I miss TNG/DS9 era Trek.
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Comment on Seth MacFarlane teases new life for ‘The Orville’: “Season 4 is written” in ~tv
l_one LinkThe Orville is, in my view, a true spiritual successor to Star Trek. The optimism for the future, the character development and having so many well-developed characters with no one really being...The Orville is, in my view, a true spiritual successor to Star Trek. The optimism for the future, the character development and having so many well-developed characters with no one really being the 'main' character. The use of the story to explore current-day difficult cultural issues.
The only thing I didn't pick up on as much (but it's been a while since I watched it, please correct me if I'm wrong) is the integration of real STEM material wherever possible - Star Trek: The Next Generation was a huge influence on me, steering me towards Physics and Electronics - I literally have the life and self-employment I do right now in large part because of that influence on me, and for all my difficulties I love where my life is right now. Probably the only other show that had anywhere close to that level of influence on young-me would be MacGyver (not OG MacGyver, because there was only ever ONE MacGyver show, there was no remake it does not exist lalalaLALA!!!!!) and that was a distant second compared to Star Trek.
I've been disappointed by a great deal of recent Trek. So much has felt like a betrayal of the original spirit of a better, hopeful future. And it isn't like 'edgy' cannot be done in Star Trek! Deep Space 9 showed us that, and it had some of the best writing ever seen, and some of the best monologues.
The confession of Gul Darheel.
In the Pale Moonlight.
Dukat in Sacrifice of Angels. -
Comment on Job hunting absolutely sucks right now in ~life
l_one Link ParentThis is what I did for years before meds! Though for me it was intermittent use of sugar-free energy drinks while keeping my coffee intake consistent. I found I had to keep it intermittent to...They just use coffee to self medicate and it seems to work okay I guess?
This is what I did for years before meds! Though for me it was intermittent use of sugar-free energy drinks while keeping my coffee intake consistent. I found I had to keep it intermittent to prevent caffeine tolerance increase, but it did work in terms of high-caffeine days leading me to be productive and effective. It did tend to consistently mess up my sleep schedule though.
I absolutely understand not wanting to put yourselves in a position where you are functionally dependent on medication that has unreliable availability.
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Comment on Job hunting absolutely sucks right now in ~life
l_one Link ParentWow, I identify with so much of that. I live with and take care of my girlfriend in a similar situation, though she does have a job, she just hates it while also having health problems that makes...Wow, I identify with so much of that. I live with and take care of my girlfriend in a similar situation, though she does have a job, she just hates it while also having health problems that makes it difficult for her. The issue of having difficulty finishing a project is very much a common experience for me.
I have Autism and ADHD. She's also on the spectrum, though she has a crap ton more emotional intelligence than I do. We both have issues with executive function - for her it impedes her ability to do most normal life stuff, which I help her out with, while for me it makes it difficult for me to do my electronics / eBay work consistently.
Things have gotten a bit better. I started on meds around... half a year ago ish? - Welbutrin and Vyvanse to help with depression and the ADHD / executive function issues respectively. They have made a difference, though things are still hard a lot of the time.
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Comment on Global arms exports - trends, winners and losers of the race to rearm in 2025 in ~society
l_one LinkSorry, no proper links in the description, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links. ... I hope you like data. With an...Sorry, no proper links in the description, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links.
...
I hope you like data.
With an acceleration in kinetic conflicts around the world, the years since 2022 have seen a rush of countries seeking to rearm. For a lot of those countries though, a key question has been who do you buy from?
With Russia fading from its previously dominant arms export position, transatlantic tensions and the rise of new suppliers, 2025 was a year where the impacts of 2022 invasion started to show through. And today, courtesy of newly released data from SIPRI, we're going to dig into it.
Patreon:
/ perunauReading and Sourcing (partial):
Unless otherwise noted, transfer data as per SIPRI arms transfer database
https://armstransfers.sipri.org/ArmsT...Please review the sources and methods underpinning that data
https://www.sipri.org/databases/armst...IISS - Global defence spending continues to grow amid geopolitical uncertainty (2025)
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/...IISS - Global Defence Spending soars to new high (2024)
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/...Delivery of KRI Brawijaya to Indonesia
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...RoK push for Canadas submarine program
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...European pitch for Canadian submarine contract
https://www.twz.com/sea/submarine-par...Canadian reporting on submarine competition
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/subm...Reporting on claimed DPRK deliveries to Russia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...Saudi Arabia orders C-27J
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/...Denmark to acquire 16 additional F-35s
https://www.fmn.dk/en/news/2025/denma...Russia delays delivery of S-400 to India (2024)
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia...Germany activates first components of Arrow III
https://www.euronews.com/2025/12/03/g...Reporting on Serbian purchase of Chinese missiles
https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...Egypt receives first batch of K9 howitzers (2025)
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...Iraq air defence purchases
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/09/i...Reporting on potential J-35 offer to Pakistan
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:48 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:02 — the Context
00:15:17 — Arms Transfers 2025
00:18:37 — Who is Buying?
00:27:03 — Russia
00:32:48 — PRC
00:36:54 — the US
00:38:20 — France & Italy
00:41:07 — Israel
00:44:30 — Korea
00:49:46 — Contests and Looking Forward
00:50:51 — Channel Update -
Global arms exports - trends, winners and losers of the race to rearm in 2025
6 votes -
Comment on Job hunting absolutely sucks right now in ~life
l_one LinkI remember this from earlier in my life, before I got away from anything that involves trying to hire on to large companies. It sucked. I remember filling out application after application, taking...I remember this from earlier in my life, before I got away from anything that involves trying to hire on to large companies.
It sucked. I remember filling out application after application, taking crap temp work in the in-between times. I remember it being absolutely demoralizing.
Eventually I set myself up in a position where I wasn't reliant on that kind of work anymore - my primary income is work from home, I buy / refurbish / sell lab electronics, with some occasional side contract work in security systems and less often in telecom survey.
Overall my experience has been that the larger the company is, the lower your probability of hiring on. My easiest / least-hassle job hunting successes have been hiring on with smaller companies.
I sympathize with the frustration you are enduring. Never a fun experience.
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Comment on Iran hits Gulf energy sites, escalating war, as US mulls sanctions rollback in ~society
l_one Link ParentYeah, I feel like that is a big element here as well. Also a big helping of 'distract from the Epstein Files'.I'm coming around to the idea that this war is calculated political theater.
Yeah, I feel like that is a big element here as well. Also a big helping of 'distract from the Epstein Files'.
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Comment on Iran hits Gulf energy sites, escalating war, as US mulls sanctions rollback in ~society
l_one Link ParentI've been keeping up with that from Sal of the 'What's Going on With Shipping?' channel. Kind of a minor Pandora's Box there in that no one really knows what the 2nd and 3rd order repercussions...On that note, with the suspension of the Jones Act to allow foreign-made ships to help cross-ship oil between different US ports
I've been keeping up with that from Sal of the 'What's Going on With Shipping?' channel. Kind of a minor Pandora's Box there in that no one really knows what the 2nd and 3rd order repercussions will be from that change.
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Comment on Iran hits Gulf energy sites, escalating war, as US mulls sanctions rollback in ~society
l_one Link ParentWhile I would like to say something along the lines of 'I cannot believe the stupidity and contradiction in this'... well, I can. My depth of belief in the bumbling incompetence of this...President Donald Trump threatened “to blow up the entirety” of Iran’s South Pars gas holdings if Iran attacked Qatar again, and his treasury secretary said the United States would consider lifting sanctions on millions of barrels of Iranian oil.
While I would like to say something along the lines of 'I cannot believe the stupidity and contradiction in this'... well, I can. My depth of belief in the bumbling incompetence of this administration, and the incredible intertwining of stupidity and evil for the sake of evil, knows no limits that I can perceive.
"Let's attack Iran as a spur of the moment decision without putting everything in place first, without building a coalition first, without topping off our strategic national reserves of oil first, and then let's talk about lifting sanctions on Iranian oil to relieve oil prices while still attacking them because that makes so much sense"...
The film Idiocracy feels more and more like a documentary from the future.
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Comment on Subnautica 2 publisher Krafton's CEO asked ChatGPT how to void $250 million contract, ignores lawyers, loses in court in ~games
l_one Link ParentThat really feels like hitting the nail on the head there. Too many people who have this kind of mentality seem to worm their way into positions of wealth and power, usually with a prodigious...I suppose that comes from being the type of person who hates being told "No."
That really feels like hitting the nail on the head there. Too many people who have this kind of mentality seem to worm their way into positions of wealth and power, usually with a prodigious ability to lie convincingly and betray ruthlessly.
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Comment on The Iran naval and economic war - Hormuz, energy exports and the end of the Iranian navy? in ~society
l_one Link ParentLooks like u/CptBluebear has already answered better than I could (at least currently as I am insufficiently caffeinated). I think I noticed a single something get mispronounced, but that can...Looks like u/CptBluebear has already answered better than I could (at least currently as I am insufficiently caffeinated).
I think I noticed a single something get mispronounced, but that can happen and go unnoticed during post with anyone, or someone can just decide 'enough editing, good enough, post it' - and this video was already posted Monday instead of Sunday, so it might be something like that - though that is only supposition on my part of course.
Perun posts weekly on Sundays (if things to to schedule) and I try to promptly post his releases here on Tildes since I view them as passing the high bar of quality I associate with the general feel of this site.
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Comment on The Iran naval and economic war - Hormuz, energy exports and the end of the Iranian navy? in ~society
l_one LinkSorry, no proper links in the description, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links. ... Geography matters. While U.S....Sorry, no proper links in the description, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links.
...
Geography matters.
While U.S. and Israeli aircraft continue to strike targets across Iran, one of Iran's most powerful strategic levers has been at sea.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit for global trade - everything from oil and gas to fertiliser and helium. While U.S. strikes may have sunk much of Iran's fleet (with claims of 100 ships sunk at time of recording) the danger of running the strait has still been enough to paralyse traffic and put the health of the global economy on a timer.
In this episode, I look at the naval war in the Middle East, the impact of the strait being closed, and what options the belligerents might have to try either restore the flow of energy or tighten it further.
For anyone that wants daily updates on the straits, I would stay across the publications by the UKMTO ( https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/...) and a callout to Sal from what's going on with shipping ( / @wgowshipping_ )
Reading and Sourcing (Partial, to be expanded 18/03/2026 due to late release))
UKMTO Advisories
https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/...Example - 12 March advisory note
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/p...Iran Envoy says Iran will not close the strait
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-...Reporting on French ships heading to Eastern Med
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/09/fren...https://www.defensenews.com/global/eu...
https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/...
The Tanker War (1988)
https://www.usni.org/magazines/procee...Second Lieutenant Quentin Zimmer, U.S. Marine Corps The Tanker War (2025)
https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-...CSIS - no on is getting through Hormuz
https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-one-...Sanctioned ship being hit:
https://gcaptain.com/sanctioned-tanke...(sanction info) https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-acti...
https://www.federalregister.gov/docum...
Reporting on LCS MCM ships potentially being moved to Asia
https://www.twz.com/sea/u-s-navy-mine...Daniel Maurer - Hypothetical Legal Advice to SecDef
https://www.justsecurity.org/133970/l...Reporting on Trump's call for allied participation in Hormuz mission
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...Trump post RE Hormuz (Truth social)
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTr...Referred to Secretary Hegseth Transcript
https://www.war.gov/News/Transcripts/...US DoD Law of War Manual - 2023
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31...Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:39 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:14 — Oil Shocks and the Region
00:07:50 — the Modern Chokepoint
00:15:01 — the State of Play
00:19:31 — Who Hurt the Most?
00:23:28 — Why Not Just Open the Strait?
00:36:20 — Mitigations
00:39:43 — Compounding Risks & Mitigations
00:41:42 — Opening the Strait?
00:56:21 — What to Watch?
00:58:07 — Channel Update -
The Iran naval and economic war - Hormuz, energy exports and the end of the Iranian navy?
12 votes
After the audiobook, and then the audio immersion tunnel version, I am excited to see what is made of this. Also worried it will get butchered of course.