I've been following the Ukrainian-Russian war since 2022. Most Western analyses favored the Russians to win because of their much bigger population and economy. Yet the Ukrainians continue to hold back the Russians and have recently shifted the momentum their way. How did the Ukrainians achieve this? The following are some of my imperfect observations.
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Russia's population is ~5x that of Ukraine's, and its economy is similarly larger. Defenders have the advantage, but Ukraine needs to do more than defend to win. The obvious implication is that the Ukrainians must kill Russians relentlessly, produce more combat power per worker, and use that combat power more effectively.
The outcome of the war has global importance. Many countries support their favored side. Ukraine has the support of most industrialized, rich countries, while Russia relies on nearby autocracies. These outside actors can and do have large impacts on the fighting.
The victory formula for Ukraine is to develop better technology, manage its resources shrewdly, and leverage allies.
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The upside is that Ukrainians have built a war machine that can grind down Russian forces and inflict serious damage to their combat power and economy. Some sources claim the kill-to-loss ratio is 8:1 in Russians to Ukrainians lost, up from only ~2:1 in previous years. Early in the war, Russia could correct some of its woes by eliminating severe underperformance compared to its theoretical capabilities. Now the Russians need to increase the theoretical ceiling, the tempo, and execute at a higher level to regain the upper hand. The Ukrainians would introduce a few copies of a new weapon before their full war industrialization, giving the Russians time to adjust. New weapons now come in the hundreds or thousands, dealing severe damage in the absence of immediate adjustment.
The downside is that Ukrainian strategic victory relies on a Russian collapse. The Ukrainians seem to lack the ability at this time to conduct a theater-wide, combined arms offensive with tactics and weapons adapted for drone warfare. It is a waiting game unless Ukraine's ability changes.
From the article:
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