I thought this was a more nuanced and thoughtful consideration of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China than I usually see (even here):
I thought this was a more nuanced and thoughtful consideration of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China than I usually see (even here):
As the U.S.-China competition expands across multiple domains, there are even worries that trade tensions could, over the long term, make the prospect of a military confrontation between the two more likely. Which raises the urgent question: How does this end?
The United States and China are forging a new, uncharted gray area—not quite the economic bifurcation that characterized the U.S.-Soviet relationship at the height of the Cold War—but far from the high degree of interdependence seen in the early 21st century. Broad U.S. support for a harder economic line on China, a complicated domestic political landscape within China, and both countries’ recognition of the need for a healthy diversification their economic relations will likely mean a new kind of relationship for the United States and China—and, by extension, a potentially new backdrop for the order of our world.
While tariffs are undoubtedly a distinctly Trumpian weapon, politicians on both sides of the aisle generally agree that China’s habitual intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and joint venture requirements significantly impair the future health and competitiveness of America’s leading businesses.
...many of the privatization reforms demanded by the U.S. are goals identified in China’s own official planning documents that were issued in 2014, but that President Xi Jinping has failed to meaningfully implement
Privately, some Chinese scholars and elites dismayed with Xi’s strong focus on preserving the state’s role in the economy have told me they are cautiously supportive of Trump’s trade war, as they see America’s ire as their only recourse to pressure Xi to return to market liberalization. A burgeoning middle class in China, increasingly college-educated, will seek service industry jobs created primarily by China’s private sector.
In the end, a U.S.-China trade war seen to its distant conclusion—and shaped by those who dissent from both Trump and Xi—will create something distinctly different from the previous bilateral economic relationship. But that does not mean that economic decoupling, and the grave Cold War comparisons associated with it, is the logical conclusion of the trade war. What is far more likely is that both the United States and China will protect high-value technology critical to their national interests, develop supply-chain redundancies, and continue economic networking with emerging middle powers in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. In the long term, it remains possible for both the United States and China to achieve a healthier diversification of economic connections that will forge a path to a distinctly new and more stable economic order.
I thought this was a more nuanced and thoughtful consideration of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China than I usually see (even here):