arghdos's recent activity

  1. Comment on Daniel Norgren - Rolling Rolling Rolling in ~music

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    @Amarok -- reminds me of something like Don Nix and the Tulsa/Gospel-y sound, or Bobby Charles' S/T album (e.g.), which are roughly mix of Tulsa Sound / Southern Gospel / Swamp Pop / Rock. Cousin...

    @Amarok -- reminds me of something like Don Nix and the Tulsa/Gospel-y sound, or Bobby Charles' S/T album (e.g.), which are roughly mix of Tulsa Sound / Southern Gospel / Swamp Pop / Rock. Cousin from the other side of the Appalachian's I guess :P

    2 votes
  2. Comment on The Biden blowout scenario in ~misc

    arghdos
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I think of 538 like this: it's not so much that they are infallible, and more that they go into some pretty serious detail about their sources, their methodology, and how they try to quantify and...

    I think of 538 like this: it's not so much that they are infallible, and more that they go into some pretty serious detail about their sources, their methodology, and how they try to quantify and estimate sources of error, e.g. Often their code and data is open-source as well, which is a plus. I have yet to find any other forecaster that is so open about their work.

    10 votes
  3. Comment on The Biden blowout scenario in ~misc

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    Fair enough, I'll delete that bit. Apologies.

    Fair enough, I'll delete that bit. Apologies.

    7 votes
  4. Comment on The Biden blowout scenario in ~misc

    arghdos
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    This is... just not true. Polls (almost) all come with a confidence interval or margin of error reported. For instance: If the poll doesn't list that, it's probably not worth reading. Now what...

    We do not know anything. Polls mean nothing

    This is... just not true. Polls (almost) all come with a confidence interval or margin of error reported. For instance:

    1,302 likely voters nationwide were surveyed from September 17 - 21 with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

    If the poll doesn't list that, it's probably not worth reading.

    Now what does this mean practically? It’s related to the width of the bell curve of possible outcomes (and inversely related to the number of respondents). This is simplifying a bit, as in the real world the curves are not as nice and smooth, but it serves to get the point across.

    For those of us not as familiar with bell curves out there, the way you get a probability out of one is by taking the area underneath region corresponding to the scenario (e.g., Biden wins by over 100 electoral college votes). So what they’re saying here is that:

    • the median (most likely outcome) is Biden wins, but not in a blow out
    • less likely, but still possible: Biden wins in a landslide, OR, Trump wins legitimately (as possible given his... shit)

    Both of the latter scenarios result from the polls being off in one direction or another, typically fairly close to the bounds of the published error margin (you know, exactly what happened in 2016)

    It’s not that polls are some awful method of forecasting the chances of something happening. It’s mostly that people (and in particular the news media) have little to no idea what probabilities mean. Trump is currently running about 1 in 5 chance in winning so like... slightly lower than picking a card from a deck and getting a heart. But that means that Biden has **roughly the same chance of blowing his ass out of the water **. It's also slightly lower than the same people forecast his chances of winning in 2016 were, FWIW (which were ~1 in 3).

    26 votes
  5. Comment on Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, champion of gender equality, dies at eighty-seven in ~news

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    Fascinating conflict of interest if we go full 2000, and Trump ends up appointing the justice who tips it in his favor.

    A hung 4/4 supreme court ruling on the election results. At this point 2020 is straight up pranking us.

    Fascinating conflict of interest if we go full 2000, and Trump ends up appointing the justice who tips it in his favor.

    9 votes
  6. Comment on ARM: UK-based chip designer sold to Nvidia in ~tech

    arghdos
    Link
    Love the crickets on the anti-trust considerations

    Love the crickets on the anti-trust considerations

    4 votes
  7. Comment on AMD announces CPU and GPU events on October 8th and 28th in ~games

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    If I ever meet you at a bar, buy me a beer and I will tell you more than you ever want to know about what developing GPU software at AMD is like (though thankfully, I'm on the Linux side of the...

    If I ever meet you at a bar, buy me a beer and I will tell you more than you ever want to know about what developing GPU software at AMD is like (though thankfully, I'm on the Linux side of the world).... but I will refrain saying much more in a public venue such as this.

    Just know, that (most of us) are quite aware.

    2 votes
  8. Comment on A brief look at programming paradigms in ~comp

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    Ahhhhh, yes that makes sense — missed the reference!

    Ahhhhh, yes that makes sense — missed the reference!

  9. Comment on A brief look at programming paradigms in ~comp

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    I think you double posted the declarative notification example as functional? At least, I can’t spot a difference.

    I think you double posted the declarative notification example as functional? At least, I can’t spot a difference.

  10. Comment on A top Democratic analytics firm warns: it's likely that Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted in ~misc

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    If I only lived in a state that allowed me to vote by mail -.- First day of early voting here is Oct. 13th. The list of polling locations won't even be made available until the 11th!

    It is also why people have been shouting for weeks begging people to request their mail in ballots as early as possible (NOW) and return them right away to ensure that your vote is counted.

    If I only lived in a state that allowed me to vote by mail -.-

    First day of early voting here is Oct. 13th. The list of polling locations won't even be made available until the 11th!

    13 votes
  11. Comment on How to Destroy Surveillance Capitalism - A new, short book by Cory Doctorow that looks at big tech as a monopoly problem in ~tech

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    That twitter thread is actually a pretty good summary of the last few chapters of the book, e.g., starting with “A monopoly over your friends”-ish.

    That twitter thread is actually a pretty good summary of the last few chapters of the book, e.g., starting with “A monopoly over your friends”-ish.

    3 votes
  12. Comment on What are your thoughts on piracy? in ~talk

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    Except for music producers, that is.

    that's alright, as the rest of the model is fair.

    Except for music producers, that is.

    6 votes
  13. Comment on What's your computer/PC like? in ~tech

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    Right now I’m working on making a molecular dynamics code run (fast) on one of our soon to be launched compute GPUs!

    Right now I’m working on making a molecular dynamics code run (fast) on one of our soon to be launched compute GPUs!

    4 votes
  14. Comment on What's your computer/PC like? in ~tech

    arghdos
    Link
    I have a (work subsidized) monster: AMD Threadripper 1950X 3.4 GHz 16-Core Processor. ASRock X399 Taichi ATX sTR4 Motherboard. G.Skill Ripjaws V Series 64 GB (4 x 16 GB) DDR4-3200 CL16 Memory....

    I have a (work subsidized) monster:

    • AMD Threadripper 1950X 3.4 GHz 16-Core Processor.
    • ASRock X399 Taichi ATX sTR4 Motherboard.
    • G.Skill Ripjaws V Series 64 GB (4 x 16 GB) DDR4-3200 CL16 Memory.
    • Western Digital Blue 1 TB M.2-2280 Solid State Drive (and all my old miscellaneous HDDs)
    • XFX Radeon VII 16 GB Video Card.
    • be quiet! Silent Base 601 ATX Mid Tower Case.
    • EVGA SuperNOVA G2 750 W 80+ Gold Certified Fully Modular ATX Power Supply

    It was a bit of a nerve wracking build tbh. Those threadrippers are massive chips, and the DRAM required more than the usual amount of force to get in properly.

    I also have two very similar workstations under my desk at work that I ssh into:

    • a 32-core 2nd gen,
    • and a 24-core 3rd gen Threadripper system that isn’t set up yet.

    Both with more memory and Radeon VIIs (might ask my boss for one of the new Pros next time)

    5 votes
  15. Comment on Semi-random walk through my Zamrock collection in ~music

    arghdos
    Link
    And the show my friend put together on my (formerly) local radio station w/ even more Zamrock.

    And the show my friend put together on my (formerly) local radio station w/ even more Zamrock.

    1 vote
  16. Comment on Semi-random walk through my Zamrock collection in ~music

    arghdos
    Link
    A playlist I put together to share with a friend... who had of course, heard all of these before :P -- saw a post on the orange site today, and thought I should post this here. I don't claim it to...

    A playlist I put together to share with a friend... who had of course, heard all of these before :P -- saw a post on the orange site today, and thought I should post this here. I don't claim it to be an exhaustive review of the genre or anything, but more than enough for a jumping off point for those interested.

    1 vote
  17. Comment on Turning carbon dioxide into liquid fuel: New electrocatalyst efficiently converts carbon dioxide into ethanol in ~science

    arghdos
    Link
    This is cool, good work Argonne (with all the usual caveats about "what does this do at scale")

    This is cool, good work Argonne (with all the usual caveats about "what does this do at scale")

    1 vote
  18. Comment on Local governments ‘overwhelmed’ in race to trace US COVID contacts in ~health.coronavirus

    arghdos
    Link Parent
    There’s known issues with how they are collecting the data (many ‘temporary’ job losses early on were not counted as unemployed) but the BLS puts the number at 11% in June...

    There’s known issues with how they are collecting the data (many ‘temporary’ job losses early on were not counted as unemployed) but the BLS puts the number at 11% in June (https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000).

    It’s possible /u/Gaywallet meant the number of individuals collecting unemployment which was (and I’m fairly sure still is) over 30 million? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-tell-us-30-million-people-are-unemployed-but-many-doubt-its-that-bad-2020-07-08

    5 votes