it's been an eventful year for the NPVIC after several years of stagnation. colorado, delaware, and new mexico have already joined the compact, and maine, oregon, and nevada are all likely to add...
it's been an eventful year for the NPVIC after several years of stagnation. colorado, delaware, and new mexico have already joined the compact, and maine, oregon, and nevada are all likely to add to that. this is likely, if it occurs, to bring the compact above 200 electoral votes, and theoretically the 270 necessary to enforce it is attainable by 2024 provided that happens, although it almost certainly won't.
With the number of "hard left" progressives (by the measure of US politicians, at least) that entered the local and state-level political landscape over the past 2 years, the only way I see this...
With the number of "hard left" progressives (by the measure of US politicians, at least) that entered the local and state-level political landscape over the past 2 years, the only way I see this NOT happening by 2024 is if the 2020 general election plays very favorably for them. Otherwise 2024 is more than enough time for the bloc as a whole to shore up the remaining electoral votes by onboarding a few more states.
I'll admit it's relatively unlikely if Biden wins the whole shebang (due primarily to the cooling effect his "moderate" presidency would have on political discourse), but in my view any outcome aside from "overwhelming progressive victory" is only going to spur those like-minded to push this even harder. ESPECIALLY if the popular vote is very close, or unfavorably lopsided again.
Those are all federal government electees, I was referring to state-level congresses and the like. Oddly enough iirc the article that originally piqued my intereste on the subject was a 538...
Those are all federal government electees, I was referring to state-level congresses and the like. Oddly enough iirc the article that originally piqued my intereste on the subject was a 538 article. I'll see if I can find it later this evening.
Those are four solid examples that I would consider hard left at a federal level, though. For further examples you could look at any member of the Democratic Progressive Caucus; by many measures they are about as "hard left" as you're going to get in the US, even the handful who "crossover" into the more-moderate New Democrat Caucus. The remaining Blue Dog caucus (which used to mean "moderate dem" and now means "conservative dem"), is dwindling as would be expected given the current climate. Biden, for anyone wondering, was a member of the Blue Dog caucus if memory serves.
in practice yes, they are dwindling as a faction in the party, but in congress they actually slightly expanded their number of members from 18 to 24 in 2018, mostly because democrats scalped a few...
The remaining Blue Dog caucus (which used to mean "moderate dem" and now means "conservative dem"), is dwindling as would be expected given the current climate.
in practice yes, they are dwindling as a faction in the party, but in congress they actually slightly expanded their number of members from 18 to 24 in 2018, mostly because democrats scalped a few seats they probably shouldn't have like oklahoma's 5th congressional district and south carolina's 1st, and a few seats which are pretty conservative like new mexico's 2nd congressional district and utah's 4th.
probably not if you're looking to pass a bunch of progressive legislation, which is what most of the party is trying to hone in on doing. unless the democrats somehow scalp 20 more seats somewhere...
probably not if you're looking to pass a bunch of progressive legislation, which is what most of the party is trying to hone in on doing. unless the democrats somehow scalp 20 more seats somewhere and none of those seats are conservative enough to justify their congresspeople becoming blue dogs, they have more than enough members (27) to really make or break a proposal in the house. they've already been sorta deciders on a few things, like riders to bills that republicans add.
Ah, there's where we differ then. I'm looking at the caucuses purely as ideological framing devices; for my purposes their ability to pass or stall legislation is irrelevant. Different strokes, as...
Ah, there's where we differ then. I'm looking at the caucuses purely as ideological framing devices; for my purposes their ability to pass or stall legislation is irrelevant.
"hard-left" progressives are pretty rare and outside of that list i'd only add rashida tlaib and ro khanna on some issues, but the congressional progressive caucus is the largest it's ever been...
"hard-left" progressives are pretty rare and outside of that list i'd only add rashida tlaib and ro khanna on some issues, but the congressional progressive caucus is the largest it's ever been and is 40% of the democratic party's current seats in the house, so there's that.
the main problem with actually getting to 270 by 2024 is that purely blue states aren't enough to get there (and several blue states have republican legislatures like pennsylvania) so the path to...
the main problem with actually getting to 270 by 2024 is that purely blue states aren't enough to get there (and several blue states have republican legislatures like pennsylvania) so the path to 270 has to run through at least one or two swing/red states + several republican controlled legislatures. that seems... unlikely to transpire, to say the least, given that republicans tend to disdain the NPVIC.
I see your point. It may just come down to a matter of world view, then. My gut tells me most of the people who identify as moderates tend to lean liberal these days, which is why I have high...
I see your point. It may just come down to a matter of world view, then. My gut tells me most of the people who identify as moderates tend to lean liberal these days, which is why I have high hopes that it will be easier to achieve than it would seem. I suppose time's the only way to tell, though.
I think they’re going to have some trouble realistically crossing the threshold. They need one other big state to sign on, but states like Texas or Florida show no sign of interest.
I think they’re going to have some trouble realistically crossing the threshold. They need one other big state to sign on, but states like Texas or Florida show no sign of interest.
it's been an eventful year for the NPVIC after several years of stagnation. colorado, delaware, and new mexico have already joined the compact, and maine, oregon, and nevada are all likely to add to that. this is likely, if it occurs, to bring the compact above 200 electoral votes, and theoretically the 270 necessary to enforce it is attainable by 2024 provided that happens, although it almost certainly won't.
With the number of "hard left" progressives (by the measure of US politicians, at least) that entered the local and state-level political landscape over the past 2 years, the only way I see this NOT happening by 2024 is if the 2020 general election plays very favorably for them. Otherwise 2024 is more than enough time for the bloc as a whole to shore up the remaining electoral votes by onboarding a few more states.
I'll admit it's relatively unlikely if Biden wins the whole shebang (due primarily to the cooling effect his "moderate" presidency would have on political discourse), but in my view any outcome aside from "overwhelming progressive victory" is only going to spur those like-minded to push this even harder. ESPECIALLY if the popular vote is very close, or unfavorably lopsided again.
Those are all federal government electees, I was referring to state-level congresses and the like. Oddly enough iirc the article that originally piqued my intereste on the subject was a 538 article. I'll see if I can find it later this evening.
Those are four solid examples that I would consider hard left at a federal level, though. For further examples you could look at any member of the Democratic Progressive Caucus; by many measures they are about as "hard left" as you're going to get in the US, even the handful who "crossover" into the more-moderate New Democrat Caucus. The remaining Blue Dog caucus (which used to mean "moderate dem" and now means "conservative dem"), is dwindling as would be expected given the current climate. Biden, for anyone wondering, was a member of the Blue Dog caucus if memory serves.
in practice yes, they are dwindling as a faction in the party, but in congress they actually slightly expanded their number of members from 18 to 24 in 2018, mostly because democrats scalped a few seats they probably shouldn't have like oklahoma's 5th congressional district and south carolina's 1st, and a few seats which are pretty conservative like new mexico's 2nd congressional district and utah's 4th.
Given the growth of the New Democrat and Progressive Caucuses, wouldn't that be little more than a matter of semantics?
probably not if you're looking to pass a bunch of progressive legislation, which is what most of the party is trying to hone in on doing. unless the democrats somehow scalp 20 more seats somewhere and none of those seats are conservative enough to justify their congresspeople becoming blue dogs, they have more than enough members (27) to really make or break a proposal in the house. they've already been sorta deciders on a few things, like riders to bills that republicans add.
Ah, there's where we differ then. I'm looking at the caucuses purely as ideological framing devices; for my purposes their ability to pass or stall legislation is irrelevant.
Different strokes, as always.
"hard-left" progressives are pretty rare and outside of that list i'd only add rashida tlaib and ro khanna on some issues, but the congressional progressive caucus is the largest it's ever been and is 40% of the democratic party's current seats in the house, so there's that.
I'd lean towards adding Ayanna Pressley to that list too.
the main problem with actually getting to 270 by 2024 is that purely blue states aren't enough to get there (and several blue states have republican legislatures like pennsylvania) so the path to 270 has to run through at least one or two swing/red states + several republican controlled legislatures. that seems... unlikely to transpire, to say the least, given that republicans tend to disdain the NPVIC.
I see your point. It may just come down to a matter of world view, then. My gut tells me most of the people who identify as moderates tend to lean liberal these days, which is why I have high hopes that it will be easier to achieve than it would seem. I suppose time's the only way to tell, though.
I think they’re going to have some trouble realistically crossing the threshold. They need one other big state to sign on, but states like Texas or Florida show no sign of interest.