They wont turn away from him by much. Trump could shoot someone and his base would still vote for him. His base is mostly older voters. While that might seem strange, given the older crowd are...
They wont turn away from him by much.
Trump could shoot someone and his base would still vote for him. His base is mostly older voters. While that might seem strange, given the older crowd are more at risk from Covid, they genuinely believe Democrats are worse. Hillary's emails, Obamagate, Hunter etc... Plus they are highly motivated by supreme court appointments (strategically it was a brilliant move for McConnell to postpone the supreme court nomination to after the election.)
While it might seem odd to prioritize supreme court nominations over life and safety, supreme court appointments are for life, and we have apparently stopped even pretending that these appointments are non-partisan.
If you look at the impact the supreme court has had over the last twenty years, it makes sense. The supreme court decided the 2000 election should go to Bush. They somehow contrived "one man one vote" to mean states could not consider hanging chads. They did this in such a way that set no precedent for the future. Which means this ruling was specific to Bush v Gore. Yet when it comes to anonymous money flowing into elections (Citizens United), obviously gerrymandered voting districts (North Carolina), polling places being closed in ways that impact minorities (Shelby County) or basic congressional oversight of a president... the supreme court is much more reluctant to get involved in politics.
So for those of you non-Americans wondering why a third of America still supports Trump, it's because a third of Americans are convinced that having a Republican as president is far more important than a competent administration or a fairly democratic country.
I agree that Trump's support among older folks won't decrease by the amount that these recent polls suggest. However, allow me to armchair psychologize senior citizens as a group from the opposite...
I agree that Trump's support among older folks won't decrease by the amount that these recent polls suggest.
However, allow me to armchair psychologize senior citizens as a group from the opposite angle as you have: they want to feel safe and secure, and they associate safety and security with an appeal to the past.
Trump won their votes partly based on the latter appeal, an appeal to the past, but his actions since then--especially with regard to COVID-19--have left seniors feeling like their safety and security are at risk due to Trump. Meanwhile, Biden's candidacy, whether explicit or not, is premised on a return to normalcy, which is associated with a return to safety and security. However one feels about "a return to normalcy" as policy or slogan, it's a narrative that could appeal to seniors and take a bite out of Trump's support among seniors.
I agree that the factors you have listed are also at the forefront of the minds of Republicans and many seniors. There are possible countervailing tendencies to consider as well, though.
If this turns out to be real I imagine it's gonna be because: A load of libertarian constitutionalists have somehow finally come to their senses A load of old people have realized the hubris of...
If this turns out to be real I imagine it's gonna be because:
A load of libertarian constitutionalists have somehow finally come to their senses
A load of old people have realized the hubris of the US healthcare system thanks to COVID
A load of old people have realized that a social safety net would be nice during these trying times (and are assured Biden is not a 'socialist' and thus trustworthy of creating a social safety net)
A load of old people are trusting him to be to the right of Obama (IIRC that's why Obama picked him as VP) ,white and not Hillary.
They wont turn away from him by much.
Trump could shoot someone and his base would still vote for him. His base is mostly older voters. While that might seem strange, given the older crowd are more at risk from Covid, they genuinely believe Democrats are worse. Hillary's emails, Obamagate, Hunter etc... Plus they are highly motivated by supreme court appointments (strategically it was a brilliant move for McConnell to postpone the supreme court nomination to after the election.)
While it might seem odd to prioritize supreme court nominations over life and safety, supreme court appointments are for life, and we have apparently stopped even pretending that these appointments are non-partisan.
If you look at the impact the supreme court has had over the last twenty years, it makes sense. The supreme court decided the 2000 election should go to Bush. They somehow contrived "one man one vote" to mean states could not consider hanging chads. They did this in such a way that set no precedent for the future. Which means this ruling was specific to Bush v Gore. Yet when it comes to anonymous money flowing into elections (Citizens United), obviously gerrymandered voting districts (North Carolina), polling places being closed in ways that impact minorities (Shelby County) or basic congressional oversight of a president... the supreme court is much more reluctant to get involved in politics.
So for those of you non-Americans wondering why a third of America still supports Trump, it's because a third of Americans are convinced that having a Republican as president is far more important than a competent administration or a fairly democratic country.
I agree that Trump's support among older folks won't decrease by the amount that these recent polls suggest.
However, allow me to armchair psychologize senior citizens as a group from the opposite angle as you have: they want to feel safe and secure, and they associate safety and security with an appeal to the past.
Trump won their votes partly based on the latter appeal, an appeal to the past, but his actions since then--especially with regard to COVID-19--have left seniors feeling like their safety and security are at risk due to Trump. Meanwhile, Biden's candidacy, whether explicit or not, is premised on a return to normalcy, which is associated with a return to safety and security. However one feels about "a return to normalcy" as policy or slogan, it's a narrative that could appeal to seniors and take a bite out of Trump's support among seniors.
I agree that the factors you have listed are also at the forefront of the minds of Republicans and many seniors. There are possible countervailing tendencies to consider as well, though.
If this turns out to be real I imagine it's gonna be because:
A load of libertarian constitutionalists have somehow finally come to their senses
A load of old people have realized the hubris of the US healthcare system thanks to COVID
A load of old people have realized that a social safety net would be nice during these trying times (and are assured Biden is not a 'socialist' and thus trustworthy of creating a social safety net)
A load of old people are trusting him to be to the right of Obama (IIRC that's why Obama picked him as VP) ,white and not Hillary.