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22 votes
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Okinawa: Tokyo to overrule referendum on US base
5 votes -
Message for Nicolás Maduro? Marco Rubio tweets image of bloody Muammar Gaddafi, killed after US intervened.
7 votes -
Roger Stone posted a picture of the US federal judge on his case with crosshairs
10 votes -
What is the Equal Rights Amendment, and why are we talking about it now?
8 votes -
Even conservatives support Sweden’s welfare state. Here’s why.
10 votes -
Multiple whistleblowers raise grave concerns with White House efforts to transfer sensitive US nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia
20 votes -
Texas attorney general Ken Paxton’s strange quest to execute an intellectually disabled man
6 votes -
W.Va. teachers go on strike over state education bill
8 votes -
US President Donald Trump declares national emergency to help fund southern border wall
43 votes -
US Supreme Court to decide legality of census citizenship query
6 votes -
Mitch McConnell says Donald Trump plans to declare national emergency to build US border wall
25 votes -
Andrew McCabe says he ordered the obstruction of justice probe of US President Donald Trump
6 votes -
US Senators propose legislation to end Congressional pensions
7 votes -
Private Mossad for hire - Inside an effort to influence American elections, starting with one small-town race
7 votes -
Americans asking, 'What happened to my refund?'
29 votes -
President Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela): An open letter to the people of the United States
19 votes -
The neo-nazi podcaster next door
7 votes -
The US founders created the Electoral College to prevent a foreign-influenced candidate from winning—it didn't stop Donald Trump, so let's scrap it
6 votes -
Virginia AG admits blackface photo as chaos deepens
8 votes -
Russian-style kleptocracy is infiltrating America
12 votes -
Georgia push for Equal Rights Amendment draws GOP support
7 votes -
US President Donald Trump ally Roger Stone arrested on seven charges in Robert Mueller inquiry
12 votes -
What would happen if the US House of Representatives decided to investigate sitting Senators?
The current US Senate majority continues to support the president. However, the current president may have been compromised by the Russian government. The connections that several senators have to...
The current US Senate majority continues to support the president. However, the current president may have been compromised by the Russian government.
The connections that several senators have to Russia (Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, to name two) raise the very real possibility that the current Republican majority in the Senate owes its existence to Russian help.
The FBI, a renewed Republican target, has suggested as much in briefings given to that same U.S. Congress.
What are the chances of the House investigating sitting menbers of Senate, and what twists and turns might occur should it happen?
9 votes -
Jailed model who claimed she has dirt on Russian oligarch speaks out
3 votes -
Transparency-seeking OPEN Government Data Act signed into law
7 votes -
A basic analysis of the 2018 US midterm elections suggests it was less gerrymandered than other recent elections for the House of representatives
Now that the ballots for the 2018 House of representatives election have been counted, how badly was the vote gerrymandered? Gerrymandering is the creating of political districts to maximize the...
Now that the ballots for the 2018 House of representatives election have been counted, how badly was the vote gerrymandered?
Gerrymandering is the creating of political districts to maximize the number of representatives a political grouping gets per vote.
The degree of gerrymandering can be approximated by calculating the difference between the outcome of a proportional voting system and the actual districted representatives each party gains.
Here's a look at the last 5 elections to the House of representatives.
In this congress, the Democrats have 235 representatives, the Republicans have 199 and there's 1 other representative.
Voter turnout was 50,3%, the highest for a midterm election since 1914.
The Democrats got 53,5% of the popular vote and 54,0% of the seats. The Republicans got 44,8% of the vote and 46,0% of the seats. Others got 1,8% of the vote and a single seat.
Since the Republicans are no longer getting vastly outsized representation, is gerrymandering dead?
If the US would have had a proportional voting system, 7 of the 435 seats would have been distributed differently in 2018.
The Democrats would have had 3 fewer representatives, the Republicans would have had 4 fewer and others would have had those 7 seats.
Here are the similar figures for the last five elections.
Year Votes per seat ('000) Dem diff. Rep diff. Other diff. 2010 199 -3 +18 -15 2012 281 -11 +27 -16 2014 179 -10 +24 -14 2016 295 -15 +27 -12 2018 261 +3 +4 -7 The change from getting 27 seats "wrong" in 2016 to 7 seats "wrong" this year is large and changes the historic trend.
Turns out that higher turnout led to more accurate representation in 2018. Who would have guessed.
(There are many other additional possible explanations for why this has changed too)
If we just look at the two major parties, what does this mean in real terms?
Here's an overview of the average difference in the number of voters the Democrats have needed for each seat they actually got in the last five elections compared to the Republicans.
Year Additional Dem voters for a seat 2010 8,6% 2012 19,4% 2014 16,6% 2016 21,4% 2018 0,8% There are other ways of trying to engineer specific election results.
This basic overview only looks at people who actually vote. Therefore it obviously doesn't consider those who are prevented from voting in the election process, whether that's from voting requirements, accessibility of polling places, registration requirements, etc.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 2020.
Is this a trend that'll continue?
Is it just a blip because those gerrymandering haven't been able to predict what party voters vote for in today's political climate?
What about turnout?
15 votes -
A 1950s TV show had a fear-mongering conman named Trump who wanted to build a wall.
7 votes -
Build the US wall? It could take at least ten years, even with 10,000 workers.
11 votes -
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s seventy percent top tax rate is a moderate, evidence-based policy
23 votes -
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez keeps firing back at her haters
19 votes -
The threat to Rojava
6 votes -
This little-known libertarian training school is making US Federal judges more conservative
11 votes -
How Mark Burnett resurrected Donald Trump as an icon of American success
5 votes -
America’s allies fear that traditional ties no longer matter under Donald Trump
7 votes -
Warning to Democrats: Most Americans against US getting more politically correct
13 votes -
Donald Trump Administration will send asylum-seekers to Mexico while US claims are processed
3 votes -
We know Michael Flynn lied to the FBI. But why?
7 votes -
A.G. Underwood Announces Stipulation Dissolving Trump Foundation Under Judicial Supervision, With AG Review Of Recipient Charities
11 votes -
Russian spy pleads guilty to engaging in conspiracy against the United States
7 votes -
Troubled by lapses, government’s voice to the world (Voice of America) braces for new Donald Trump management
6 votes -
How the US Internal Revenue Service was gutted
15 votes -
Over a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed in controversial North Carolina House race
25 votes -
New Robert Mueller filing says US President Donald Trump’s ex-lawyer Michael Cohen was in touch with a Russian seeking ‘political synergy’ with campaign
11 votes -
A twenty-year-old is helping John McAfee's 2020 campaign team by teaching him how to shitpost about anime
25 votes -
He’s built an empire, with detained migrant children as the bricks
9 votes -
Is a do-over election incoming? North Carolina Republicans alleged to have committed major voter fraud.
15 votes -
Panama the new flashpoint in China's growing presence in Latin America
7 votes -
Paul Manafort’s lawyer is said to have briefed US President Donald Trump's team on Robert Mueller talks
14 votes -
US and Canada reach new trade deal to replace NAFTA
6 votes