Linked to a news source, because the change to the program is what is notable, but here's the updated SpaceX Smallsat website. In short, SpaceX's pricing is now far lower than before—$1M for...
Linked to a news source, because the change to the program is what is notable, but here's the updated SpaceX Smallsat website.
In short, SpaceX's pricing is now far lower than before—$1M for 200kg—and they're allowing ridealongs on Starlink missions which now lets them market a monthly launch frequency for these customers. At a glance, it now seems cheaper to launch your smallsat on SpaceX rather than Rocketlab or others, but only okay if you're sitting in the back seat as a non-primary payload.
Their first Starlink launch was packed to the gills. If they are going to add rideshare payloads they're going to have to cut back on the number of Starlink satellites per launch. It seems like a...
Their first Starlink launch was packed to the gills. If they are going to add rideshare payloads they're going to have to cut back on the number of Starlink satellites per launch. It seems like a tradeoff. On the one hand once it's up and running Starlink has the potential to be a major cash cow, but it will take time to get it operational and start bringing in revenue. Doing rideshares gives them some upfront cash to play with while they work on getting Starlink running.
Once SpaceX gets their Starlink design settled and gets their production line up to speed they should be able to turn out satellites at a regular rate. The Starlink launches be should be more predictable and reliable than bespoke primary payloads. It's still not as good as the dedicated launch you get from Rocket Lab, but it's better than a traditional rideshare.
They have plenty of time to get up by the FCC deadline, but the faster they get up the sooner Starlink can start making money. They are also racing their competitors to be the first operational...
They have plenty of time to get up by the FCC deadline, but the faster they get up the sooner Starlink can start making money. They are also racing their competitors to be the first operational LEO mega-constellation.
Starlink and Starship are going to get along like peanut butter and jelly. Starship will accelerate the launch of Starlink and Starlink will accelerate the funding of Starship. Starlink will give Starship low stakes early payloads so they can iron out the issues before risking customer payloads.
The 18 meter version is going to be a beast. Who knows with SpaceX, but I don't see them doing the 18 meter until they are going full bore on Mars. Falcon Heavy is already big enough that it's rare to have a big enough payload to need it. I expect Starship to run a lot more than FH because it will be cheaper than Falcon 9 even when launching something light, but 18 meter will be more expensive per launch than 9 meter Starship. It will be the FH to Starship's F9. I wouldn't be surprised if it had Falcon Heavy like delays.
It will take awhile before there are many payloads someone wants to launch that can't fit on a 9 meter Starship. Can they launch enough Starlink batches, 10+ meter telescopes and space hotels to justify the development, launch site construction/modification and other costs of the 18 meter rocket? Once they are in full Mars colonization mode, though, then they will need bulk transport that can carry as much as possible. Then the 18 meter version will make sense. (I wonder how shipping containers they can pack in an 18 meter rocket?) That should be well after Starlink is fully deployed, though.
Good, someone mentioned it vaguely, so I'll stand on a starlink-related soapbox and rant for a bit: It's a damn shame that there are Starlink sats in the sky without inter-sat communication. I...
Once SpaceX gets their Starlink design settled
Good, someone mentioned it vaguely, so I'll stand on a starlink-related soapbox and rant for a bit:
It's a damn shame that there are Starlink sats in the sky without inter-sat communication. I know it's a planned goal, but as an unqualified armchair commentator, I think SpaceX's haste to launch these prototype sats was a huge mistake. I know they're experimental, but if you're building a constellation, it seems like perfecting inter-satellite communication is critical—as demonstrated by Iridium—and excessive reliance on ground stations for anything other than end-to-end termination will ultimately kill Starlink. Regardless of how many sats they're planning to fling into the sky, it's slightly worrying to me they weren't prepared for that for their prototype launches.
I feel that the prototype satellites are essentially an engineering test, to see how well they hold up in space. I expect them to be deorbited once they're superseded by Starlink satellites with...
I feel that the prototype satellites are essentially an engineering test, to see how well they hold up in space. I expect them to be deorbited once they're superseded by Starlink satellites with the inter-sat links.
Linked to a news source, because the change to the program is what is notable, but here's the updated SpaceX Smallsat website.
In short, SpaceX's pricing is now far lower than before—$1M for 200kg—and they're allowing ridealongs on Starlink missions which now lets them market a monthly launch frequency for these customers. At a glance, it now seems cheaper to launch your smallsat on SpaceX rather than Rocketlab or others, but only okay if you're sitting in the back seat as a non-primary payload.
Their first Starlink launch was packed to the gills. If they are going to add rideshare payloads they're going to have to cut back on the number of Starlink satellites per launch. It seems like a tradeoff. On the one hand once it's up and running Starlink has the potential to be a major cash cow, but it will take time to get it operational and start bringing in revenue. Doing rideshares gives them some upfront cash to play with while they work on getting Starlink running.
Once SpaceX gets their Starlink design settled and gets their production line up to speed they should be able to turn out satellites at a regular rate. The Starlink launches be should be more predictable and reliable than bespoke primary payloads. It's still not as good as the dedicated launch you get from Rocket Lab, but it's better than a traditional rideshare.
They have plenty of time to get up by the FCC deadline, but the faster they get up the sooner Starlink can start making money. They are also racing their competitors to be the first operational LEO mega-constellation.
Starlink and Starship are going to get along like peanut butter and jelly. Starship will accelerate the launch of Starlink and Starlink will accelerate the funding of Starship. Starlink will give Starship low stakes early payloads so they can iron out the issues before risking customer payloads.
The 18 meter version is going to be a beast. Who knows with SpaceX, but I don't see them doing the 18 meter until they are going full bore on Mars. Falcon Heavy is already big enough that it's rare to have a big enough payload to need it. I expect Starship to run a lot more than FH because it will be cheaper than Falcon 9 even when launching something light, but 18 meter will be more expensive per launch than 9 meter Starship. It will be the FH to Starship's F9. I wouldn't be surprised if it had Falcon Heavy like delays.
It will take awhile before there are many payloads someone wants to launch that can't fit on a 9 meter Starship. Can they launch enough Starlink batches, 10+ meter telescopes and space hotels to justify the development, launch site construction/modification and other costs of the 18 meter rocket? Once they are in full Mars colonization mode, though, then they will need bulk transport that can carry as much as possible. Then the 18 meter version will make sense. (I wonder how shipping containers they can pack in an 18 meter rocket?) That should be well after Starlink is fully deployed, though.
Good, someone mentioned it vaguely, so I'll stand on a starlink-related soapbox and rant for a bit:
It's a damn shame that there are Starlink sats in the sky without inter-sat communication. I know it's a planned goal, but as an unqualified armchair commentator, I think SpaceX's haste to launch these prototype sats was a huge mistake. I know they're experimental, but if you're building a constellation, it seems like perfecting inter-satellite communication is critical—as demonstrated by Iridium—and excessive reliance on ground stations for anything other than end-to-end termination will ultimately kill Starlink. Regardless of how many sats they're planning to fling into the sky, it's slightly worrying to me they weren't prepared for that for their prototype launches.
I feel that the prototype satellites are essentially an engineering test, to see how well they hold up in space. I expect them to be deorbited once they're superseded by Starlink satellites with the inter-sat links.