16 votes

Rents are the Federal Reserve’s ‘biggest stumbling block’ in taming US inflation

11 comments

  1. [3]
    Spydrchick
    Link
    One of the drivers is algorithm based software lile Real Page's YieldStar. Any management company using it is seeing higher rents by a pretty decent margin. Our former management company starting...

    One of the drivers is algorithm based software lile Real Page's YieldStar. Any management company using it is seeing higher rents by a pretty decent margin.

    Our former management company starting using software about 5 yrs ago or so that set rents like martket pricing. You literally would get a different rate if you signed your lease on a Tuesday vs a Saturday or winter vs spring/summer. The latter makes sense, the former is just splitting hairs.

    We wound up buying (very fortunate to be able to) because we were retiring with a limited income. We had no idea how high the rents would go. Our apartment is on the martket for 25% more than we were paying.

    I feel for anyone renting as a necessity right now. Housing costs are Out. Of. Control. I have no idea how to fix it, but something needs to happen.

    15 votes
    1. [2]
      ackables
      Link Parent
      Thankfully there are a few anti-trust lawsuits being filed against the rent setting software and landlords who use it.

      Thankfully there are a few anti-trust lawsuits being filed against the rent setting software and landlords who use it.

      13 votes
      1. MimicSquid
        Link Parent
        But will those lawsuits actually move rent costs back to where they were? You can't unboil an egg, and I don't see how the courts could possibly make the victims whole in this case.

        But will those lawsuits actually move rent costs back to where they were? You can't unboil an egg, and I don't see how the courts could possibly make the victims whole in this case.

        4 votes
  2. [6]
    skybrian
    Link
    From the article (archive): …

    From the article (archive):

    Rent dominates the inflation indexes on which the Federal Reserve bases its interest-rate decisions. Hotter-than-expected readings for the category in the first few months of the year are a big reason the central bank is hesitant to cut rates. “Housing is the biggest stumbling block,” says Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. “We thought we basically understood the mechanical, short-run model of how much housing inflation should be coming down. And it hasn’t come down as fast as we thought it was going to have come down at this point.”

    Even the rental inflation problem itself isn’t particularly broad-based anymore, geographically: There’s a big difference between the situation in the Northeast and Midwest, where high inflation is lingering, and the West and South, where it’s moderating rapidly.

    In the Northeast and Midwest, rental inflation is not even a quarter of the way back down from the peak to pre-pandemic levels. In the Midwest and the South it’s more than half-way and almost four-fifths of the way there, respectively.

    The difference seems to be all about supply. “There’s really strong overlap right now between the markets that are seeing the biggest rent declines and the ones where there’s been the most construction,” says Chris Salviati, a housing economist at the online rental marketplace Apartment List.

    New York City and Phoenix perhaps best represent the opposite ends of the spectrum. In the New York metro area, the owners’ equivalent rent component of the consumer price index rose 5.6% in the 12 months through March, a rate not much below last year’s peak of 6.3%. In the 12 months through February 2020, by comparison, it was up only 2.4%.

    The addition of rental units in the metro area has lagged far behind that of other major cities, and it’s been at a near standstill since mid‑2022, when a state tax incentive for projects that reserve a portion of apartments for low- and middle-income residents expired. “This is a problem that has plagued high-density markets like Manhattan for 100 years,” says Jonathan Miller, who tracks the city’s rental market for his appraisal company, Miller Samuel Inc.

    In contrast, the Phoenix metro area is awash in new housing. Rental inflation there was only 3% in the 12 months through March—below pre-pandemic levels—after accelerating to almost 18% in 2022.

    7 votes
    1. [5]
      OBLIVIATER
      Link Parent
      I hate how many people are touting this stat like it's a success story when rent almost doubled during the pandemic.

      "In contrast, the Phoenix metro area is awash in new housing. Rental inflation there was only 3% in the 12 months through March—below pre-pandemic levels—after accelerating to almost 18% in 2022."

      I hate how many people are touting this stat like it's a success story when rent almost doubled during the pandemic.

      19 votes
      1. [2]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        First I heard of it (I don’t pay attention to Phoenix rents) and yeah, that’s useful context. You could be optimistic or pessimistic about it. Rents could rise even more, and in some places they do.

        First I heard of it (I don’t pay attention to Phoenix rents) and yeah, that’s useful context. You could be optimistic or pessimistic about it. Rents could rise even more, and in some places they do.

        5 votes
        1. OBLIVIATER
          Link Parent
          "at least it's not worse" is not a comforting mindset for me

          "at least it's not worse" is not a comforting mindset for me

          12 votes
      2. [2]
        teaearlgraycold
        Link Parent
        Is that down to the RealPage cartel?

        Is that down to the RealPage cartel?

        4 votes
        1. Minori
          Link Parent
          Only in a few coastal metros with a lot of corporate landlords.

          Only in a few coastal metros with a lot of corporate landlords.

          3 votes
  3. [2]
    Nemoder
    Link
    I wonder if we could reduce rent prices by having more cities in the US implement an Empty House Tax like they did in Vancouver BC. Even if it didn't it would at least be more income for cities to...

    I wonder if we could reduce rent prices by having more cities in the US implement an Empty House Tax like they did in Vancouver BC. Even if it didn't it would at least be more income for cities to help find solutions for the rising number of homeless. Having livable but empty property just sitting as asset dumps seems like a big part of the problem.

    5 votes
    1. skybrian
      Link Parent
      Here are the home vacancy rate and rental vacancy rate in the US. They’re quite a bit lower than they used to be. It makes it hard to see how it could be a cause. Rather, it seems like a symptom...

      Here are the home vacancy rate and rental vacancy rate in the US. They’re quite a bit lower than they used to be. It makes it hard to see how it could be a cause. Rather, it seems like a symptom of high rents is that people don’t want to see properties sit idle?

      Maybe there are regional differences, though. Averages can hide problems.

      5 votes