Greg's recent activity
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Comment on Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story in ~society
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Comment on Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story in ~society
Greg Link ParentConflict of interest seems like a reasonable starting point for where it becomes a problem? Lotteries are random, so inherently safe on that front, although they often ban participation from...Conflict of interest seems like a reasonable starting point for where it becomes a problem?
Lotteries are random, so inherently safe on that front, although they often ban participation from employees anyway to avoid creating any incentives to mess with the RNG. Sports betting already bans players, managers, anyone who’d have the ability to throw the game in exchange for a big payout. Investing bans insider trading, or at least makes a cursory attempt to do so most of the time. Ish.
The big problem with Polymarket as it stands is the incentive to change the outcome if it’s within your power - either by betting on things you already control and changing the actual path of events, or by straight up criminal threats to create a false narrative as in this case.
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Comment on ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, and is hiring a CEO, who will be paid roughly $300,000/year in ~science
Greg Link ParentCould well be actually - now that you say it I am more used to hearing it from UK-based physics and comp sci people, I can't remember whether or not it usually gets a definite article in front...Could well be actually - now that you say it I am more used to hearing it from UK-based physics and comp sci people, I can't remember whether or not it usually gets a definite article in front when US colleagues mention it!
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Comment on ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, and is hiring a CEO, who will be paid roughly $300,000/year in ~science
Greg Link ParentFor what it's worth I hear people use the "the" probably 70% of the time when it comes up in conversation - it's pretty common usage even if not the official way of referring to it.For what it's worth I hear people use the "the" probably 70% of the time when it comes up in conversation - it's pretty common usage even if not the official way of referring to it.
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Comment on ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, and is hiring a CEO, who will be paid roughly $300,000/year in ~science
Greg Link ParentYeah it’s a good point - if they are going for an NYC office (I’m going by the location on the job listing, so maybe some chance it’s not yet set in stone?) that’s another sign they’re aiming for...Yeah it’s a good point - if they are going for an NYC office (I’m going by the location on the job listing, so maybe some chance it’s not yet set in stone?) that’s another sign they’re aiming for “gotta spend money to make money” rather than slow burn and sustainable.
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Comment on ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, and is hiring a CEO, who will be paid roughly $300,000/year in ~science
Greg LinkHmm... the newly separated organisation is going to be a nonprofit, which is a good start, but the real story here is going to hinge on why they're breaking away from Cornell in the first place. I...Hmm... the newly separated organisation is going to be a nonprofit, which is a good start, but the real story here is going to hinge on why they're breaking away from Cornell in the first place. I don't think the fact they're hiring a new CEO is inherently a good or bad thing (although it could easily go very, very badly), and the salary sounds high but actually translates to "comfortable middle class lifestyle, from back before the middle class was priced out" for an NYC-based organisation, but I'm worried that this is a step towards the site as a whole exposing itself to broader market forces.
Even with the best of intentions, I don't want the arXiv using its position as the de facto repository for computer science articles to siphon some money off the AI bubble, because unless their plan is to invest that money into a self-sustaining endowment to fund the organisation's future and never touch the capital (in which case what would the people giving them the capital get out of it that they're not already getting now?), it'll just end up creating major conflicts of interest here and now, and an extremely dangerous stumbling block whenever the growth eventually dries up and they have to come to terms with cutting back again.
This exciting transition will allow for faster technological development, greater organizational flexibility, expanded partnerships, and long-term financial sustainability.
I'd rather the tech were more or less static, and partnerships were limited to the bare minimum links to academic institutions to keep the lights on. Maybe the Cornell link is forcing them to fight for limited budget every year, maybe it's keeping them on crusty old servers in a university basement - I could believe both of those as plausible positive reasons for them to want independence. But the timing and the way they're approaching it doesn't give me a good feeling here. I think they're trying to capitalise on the position they've found themselves in, and I think that's going to be detrimental to the true importance of the site in the long term.
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Comment on Hackers expose the massive surveillance stack hiding inside your “age verification” check in ~tech
Greg Link ParentIt’s a confusing one, because the same people simultaneously say they support age checks, say they don’t think they’ll work, say they’ll lead to data breaches, say it’ll lead to government...It’s a confusing one, because the same people simultaneously say they support age checks, say they don’t think they’ll work, say they’ll lead to data breaches, say it’ll lead to government censorship, and say they’re not willing to go through the age verification process themselves: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/britons-back-online-safety-acts-age-checks-are-sceptical-effectiveness-and-unwilling-share-id
The vast majority of the conversation I’ve seen around it is on the age verification side, too, not really on curtailing the power of foreign big tech in the same way that, say, GDPR is seen. Maybe that’s partly my bubble, but the polling does seem to focus that way too.
Perhaps calling it unpopular was oversimplifying, but I do still think the broader question stands: people are at best confused, and more broadly somewhere between sceptical and hostile to what they understand of the OSA - so what’s driving the spike in very similar laws in multiple countries right now when that confusion and/or hostility suggests it’s not a matter of the people demanding it?
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Comment on Hackers expose the massive surveillance stack hiding inside your “age verification” check in ~tech
Greg Link ParentThere is a chicken and egg question there though: who/what was the driving force that pushed through unpopular and extremely technically flawed legislation like the OSA to create that liability in...There is a chicken and egg question there though: who/what was the driving force that pushed through unpopular and extremely technically flawed legislation like the OSA to create that liability in the first place?
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Comment on Reuters reveals Banksy's identity in a long investigation in ~arts
Greg Link ParentYeah actually, now that you say it a couple of those do only really make sense if they had someone doing specific searches on their behalf. I'll be honest, I wasn't reading with absolute full...Yeah actually, now that you say it a couple of those do only really make sense if they had someone doing specific searches on their behalf. I'll be honest, I wasn't reading with absolute full focus on this one, and I was parsing "sources told us" as the more casual scenario - I think that still could've plausibly been the case for a couple of things they said - but you're right that "no record" for specific names, and referencing the specific passport details for others, very much sounds like someone was taking the reporter's questions and typing them straight into the main system, which definitely isn't a great look.
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Comment on Reuters reveals Banksy's identity in a long investigation in ~arts
Greg Link ParentI imagine it's a bit more casual than that; I'm sure most immigration officials would rightly balk at sharing actual private records, but I'm also sure that if you're a reporter working locally...I imagine it's a bit more casual than that; I'm sure most immigration officials would rightly balk at sharing actual private records, but I'm also sure that if you're a reporter working locally it's totally plausible to have a conversation like "Hey, Anton, your cousin works at the border post, right? Can you ask him if he saw [notable celebrity] a few weeks ago? I got a tip that he might've visited...".
That said, I'm kinda ambivalent about the article as a whole - I think it's right about the public interest argument in a broad general sense, I think it makes some very fair points about Banksy getting special treatment that other artists don't, and I personally think that Banksy's messaging is pretty trite anyway, but I also think that Banksy absolutely does needle at establishment thinking in a way that seems to resonate with a wide audience. The tone the article uses when talking about him doesn't quite sit right with me in terms of what it suggests about their motivations in publishing it, even though that's more of a broad feeling than a specific fault in what they're saying.
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Comment on The billionaire ‘buccaneer’ braving the Strait of Hormuz in ~transport
Greg Link ParentI definitely got “loveable rogue” from the word choice - I think buccaneer in particular conjures Jack Sparrow at worst, but more likely Dread Pirate Roberts. My split second reaction was an image...I definitely got “loveable rogue” from the word choice - I think buccaneer in particular conjures Jack Sparrow at worst, but more likely Dread Pirate Roberts. My split second reaction was an image of that kind of classic brash protagonist in fiction, doing what it takes to get the important work done because that matters more than your rigid rules, goddammit!
And then I asked myself that very same question as the top comment: is he putting himself in danger to do important work because he believes in it? Or is he putting his employees in danger and taking his cut of the profits?
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Comment on Why do I almost never catch colds anymore? in ~health
Greg Link ParentMuch appreciated, thank you! That was in equal parts illuminating and worrying - it definitely does slot neatly into my experience of the last few years, although I'm trying to resist falling too...Much appreciated, thank you! That was in equal parts illuminating and worrying - it definitely does slot neatly into my experience of the last few years, although I'm trying to resist falling too much into confirmation bias, especially on something I can't actually do that much about here and now. It'll be good to keep an eye on the topic now that I know it's one to be watched, either way - partly because it's good to be informed, partly because it's good to have some indication it's likely not my imagination.
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Comment on Lords a-leaving: Britain is ejecting hereditary nobles from Parliament after 700 years in ~society
Greg Link ParentI mean... yeah, pretty much with you! I don't know, maybe I'm misreading your tone, maybe we're missing each others nuances, I guess I feel like what you're saying has the sound and shape of a...I mean... yeah, pretty much with you! I don't know, maybe I'm misreading your tone, maybe we're missing each others nuances, I guess I feel like what you're saying has the sound and shape of a disagreement but the things you're saying are more or less the same as what I'm saying and what I think @mat was saying.
It's not about making any excuses for heredity as a system, or suggesting that good kings can somehow justify it as a practice - they obviously can't. It's just an observation that the chances of a given individual who actively seeks power through wealth being the right person to wield it, especially with the preconditions on gaining that wealth and power in our current system, are even lower than the chances of an individual with power arbitrarily thrust upon them being the right person to wield it.
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Comment on Lords a-leaving: Britain is ejecting hereditary nobles from Parliament after 700 years in ~society
Greg Link ParentReading this and largely agreeing with both you and @mat, as I think you’re actually more or less agreeing with each other, I read the original line you quoted to mean: I don’t think anyone’s...Reading this and largely agreeing with both you and @mat, as I think you’re actually more or less agreeing with each other, I read the original line you quoted to mean:
Oligarchs are far [more harmful]. They're deliberate. Peers are just accidents of birth.
I don’t think anyone’s suggesting that hereditary rule is anything other than morally abhorrent, and I don’t think anyone’s saying it shouldn’t be abolished - but from a purely practical perspective, the individual you end up with in a hereditary position is kind of a biased random choice. Each person filling the seat is their own individual in a way that’s not directly correlated with any specific set of qualities.
Compare that to the billionaires who influence politics, and there’s an incredibly strong selective pressure towards ruthlessness, selfishness, grandiosity, and a whole bunch of other qualities that are terrible in a position of power.
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Comment on Why do I almost never catch colds anymore? in ~health
Greg Link ParentHuh, that'd absolutely fit with my experience! It's good to know that there's at least some evidence of a link there, thanks for that. I should do some more reading around this, get a better...Huh, that'd absolutely fit with my experience! It's good to know that there's at least some evidence of a link there, thanks for that. I should do some more reading around this, get a better picture of what the current state of knowledge is - don't suppose you happen to have any good article links you've seen on the topic?
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Comment on Why do I almost never catch colds anymore? in ~health
Greg Link ParentSeconding this - I pretty much never used to get whatever random things were going around, had COVID several times (including a really nasty case the first time, even after vaccination), and...Seconding this - I pretty much never used to get whatever random things were going around, had COVID several times (including a really nasty case the first time, even after vaccination), and nowadays it seems like I'm continually getting colds and coughs and generally feeling a bit gross.
It's actually a really frustrating and noticeable change that I've been trying to figure out how best to deal with. Now that you mention it I've also been dealing with a lot of stress, so perhaps that does also have something to do with it, and it sounds like a good thing to focus on improving either way.
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Comment on Meta to acquire Moltbook, the social network for AI agents in ~tech
Greg Link ParentMarketing stuff is how you do it. The most lucrative is rarely the first or the best, and I think that’s a real shame, because if we aligned the incentives better we could have a lot more smart...Marketing stuff is how you do it. The most lucrative is rarely the first or the best, and I think that’s a real shame, because if we aligned the incentives better we could have a lot more smart people focused on quality and utility.
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Comment on Norwegian influencer buys failed property development in Spain to build ‘self-sufficient’ eco-community – Modern Eco Village plans to erect 500 homes, schools and shops in ~design
Greg Link ParentOuch, I can see why you're wary of a 1:5 ratio, in that case! I was seeing numbers around 30% at that ratio but I guess that's gonna depend heavily on mortgage rates in the time and place someone...Ouch, I can see why you're wary of a 1:5 ratio, in that case! I was seeing numbers around 30% at that ratio but I guess that's gonna depend heavily on mortgage rates in the time and place someone buys.
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Comment on Norwegian influencer buys failed property development in Spain to build ‘self-sufficient’ eco-community – Modern Eco Village plans to erect 500 homes, schools and shops in ~design
Greg Link ParentAre you thinking house prices or monthly payment? I've heard 30% of monthly income used as a rule of thumb for housing expenses, although as you rightly say it's kinda the only option for a lot of...Are you thinking house prices or monthly payment? I've heard 30% of monthly income used as a rule of thumb for housing expenses, although as you rightly say it's kinda the only option for a lot of people to go past that with current prices, but it should be plausible to hit that number on the monthly costs with reasonable mortgage assumptions if the house value is 5x salary. Then again, maybe I've just spent so many years in such an insane housing market that I'm seeing 30% as a lofty goal rather than the worst case limit it perhaps should be!
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Comment on Norwegian influencer buys failed property development in Spain to build ‘self-sufficient’ eco-community – Modern Eco Village plans to erect 500 homes, schools and shops in ~design
Greg Link ParentVery fair, and honestly I'd take wired smart home hardware as a significant reliability and security selling point if I were buying it. If it does turn out they're using that with properly...Very fair, and honestly I'd take wired smart home hardware as a significant reliability and security selling point if I were buying it. If it does turn out they're using that with properly shielded cables and that nobody can use their phones inside any of the houses because they've got Faraday cage mesh in the walls and no WiFi, I'll upgrade my assessment of these guys from "run of the mill fools and/or grifters" to "surprisingly well informed but damagingly misguided"!
But I'd also make a significant bet that anyone described as an influencer isn't actually blocking WiFi and phone signals in their newly built community...
Yeah, I was thinking this one through a bit when a topic about Polymarket came up previously - if there’s a situation with an outcome that’s absolutely set in stone and can’t be changed, insider betting could maybe price itself in and actually add more information to the market (whether it’s fair to allow people to cash in on that is a whole other can of worms, but at least it’s not an actual conflict because the outcome’s predetermined). Problem is that very little in the real world is that definite, and if something is then people probably won’t bother betting on it in the first place!
Accounting for the squishy boundaries of the real world, you’ve got the classic conflict of just betting on something you control and then choosing the outcome so you win, but you’ve also got the meta-conflict of people using Polymarket itself as an information signal for other valuable decisions.
If you’re a company looking to buy out a competitor, and there’s a bet on whether the deal will go through, maybe you put $200m into Polymarket saying it won’t - people see that, the stock price of the competitor drops because everyone assumes the insiders know the deal has fallen through and they’re looking to win an easy bet on it, and you get to buy the competitor at a knock down price. As long as the stock drop saves you more than $200m on the purchase price, it’s worth deliberately losing the Polymarket bet to spread the doubt that makes it happen.