nic's recent activity

  1. Comment on WeWork files for IPO in ~tech

    nic Link Parent
    Smells like 1999.

    Smells like 1999.

  2. Comment on Cloudflare files for IPO in ~tech

    nic Link Parent
    Negative cash flow similar to the net losses from 2016 onwards, according to their S1.

    Negative cash flow similar to the net losses from 2016 onwards, according to their S1.

    2 votes
  3. Comment on Cloudflare files for IPO in ~tech

    nic Link
    The $3.6 billion dollar valuation is in line with similar recent IPO's, but I feel like everyone has forgotten what the dot com crash did to unprofitable tech companies. Everyone wants to buy the...

    The $3.6 billion dollar valuation is in line with similar recent IPO's, but I feel like everyone has forgotten what the dot com crash did to unprofitable tech companies.

    Everyone wants to buy the next FANG, but when the market crashes, how low will these valuations go?

    4 votes
  4. Comment on Americanisms the British public can't bloody stand in ~humanities

    nic Link
    This is a laundry list of one persons pet peeves after living in a country for a year or two. I've been there. Some Americanisms are brilliant. Like flip flops. Others are head scratchers. Like...

    This is a laundry list of one persons pet peeves after living in a country for a year or two. I've been there.

    Some Americanisms are brilliant. Like flip flops. Others are head scratchers. Like bangs or sideburns. The biggest pain in the ass isn't the Americanisms, it's the imperial measuring system and the date format.

    After about ten years of living in a new country, you visit back home, and realize your old homeland also has a bunch of minor irritants that drive you bloody bonkers. Oh how the tables soon turn.

    7 votes
  5. Comment on WeWork files for IPO in ~tech

    nic (edited ) Link
    I wonder what Softbank sees in them? They invested $10.4 billion out of the $12.8 billion into this company. Their S1 claims WeWork is well under half the cost of a traditional lease, which...

    I wonder what Softbank sees in them? They invested $10.4 billion out of the $12.8 billion into this company.

    Their S1 claims WeWork is well under half the cost of a traditional lease, which implies they can hike rates to profitability in a good economy.

    But their enterprise clients are stressing the avoidance of capital expenditure and long term leases, which suggests WeWork is carrying the risk of the long term lease and capital expenditure that might hit them hard during a recession.

    Wework has committed to spending $3 billion a year over the next 15 years. Yet they are burning $6 billion a year. Even if they cut expansion costs they still have to raise rents to achieve profitability. The comment in their S1 about resiliency during a recession and even potential upside during a recession seems to be just asking for a lawsuit.

    Also, the CEO cashing out is not going to help things at all.

    2 votes
  6. Comment on Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K. as ‘Doom and Gloom’ Spreads in ~news

  7. Comment on Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K. as ‘Doom and Gloom’ Spreads in ~news

    nic Link
    This is alarming and worth paying attention too. The US Treasury yield curve has inverted Inverted US Treasury yield curves have predicted 10 of the last 9 recessions (There was one false...

    This is alarming and worth paying attention too.

    1. The US Treasury yield curve has inverted

    2. Inverted US Treasury yield curves have predicted 10 of the last 9 recessions (There was one false positive.)

    3. This raises the chances of a US led recession significantly

    4. This correlation is based on solid economic theory and history

    There are two reasons to not freak out yet.

    1. A recession is typically associated with a drop in US employment, which we haven't seen yet.

    2. In fact, the yield curve fully reverts for a period of months prior to a recession, and often the 30 year drops below the 10 year, which hasn't happened yet.

    But there is still one reason to consider increasing your asset allocation more towards short term bonds/cash.

    According to Robert Shiller, almost everything is overvalued. And Shiller has predicted two of the last two bubbles.

    1. Shiller first published Irrational Exuberance in March 2000. The punchline of his book was that tech stocks were in a bubble. A few months later, the dot com crash happened.

    2. Shiller revised Irrational Exuberance in 2005, adding a chapter on the house price bubble. A few years later the housing market caused severe financial panic.

    3. Shiller revised Irrational Exuberance a third time in 2016. The third revision says that almost everything is overvalued. Bonds, housing and stocks. Globally and in the USA. Just not as extreme as in 2000 & 2008.

    12 votes
  8. Comment on The human beings behind the statistics in ~talk

    nic Link Parent
    Good assumption.

    Good assumption.

    3 votes
  9. Comment on In short-staffed jail, Jeffrey Epstein was left alone for hours, and one of the two guards didn't normally work as a correctional officer in ~news

    nic Link
    The two guards assigned to watch Jeffrey Epstein when he killed himself in jail have been placed on administrative leave. Barr should recuse himself. Barr is ultimately responsible for all...

    The two guards assigned to watch Jeffrey Epstein when he killed himself in jail have been placed on administrative leave.

    Barr should recuse himself. Barr is ultimately responsible for all correctional facilities, Barr's father hired Epstein as a teacher and Barr worked at a law firm that represented Barr.

    3 votes
  10. Comment on The US Navy will replace its touchscreen controls with mechanical ones on its destroyers in ~tech

    nic Link Parent
    And yet every day I see people driving on the freeway looking at the little touch screen they keep in their pockets. While I don't like touch screens in cars, I think calling Tesla a death trap is...

    And yet every day I see people driving on the freeway looking at the little touch screen they keep in their pockets.

    While I don't like touch screens in cars, I think calling Tesla a death trap is questionable.

    4 votes
  11. Comment on The people who want you to stop having babies in ~humanities

    nic Link Parent
    Then maybe not having kids is not for you. Have you ever considered the possibility of having just one kid?

    Then maybe not having kids is not for you.

    Have you ever considered the possibility of having just one kid?

    3 votes
  12. Comment on The US Navy will replace its touchscreen controls with mechanical ones on its destroyers in ~tech

    nic Link Parent
    What makes you claim Tesla is a death trap? I believe Tesla has a manual control for the throttle and steering.

    Elon Musk so the Tesla UX can be less of a death trap

    What makes you claim Tesla is a death trap? I believe Tesla has a manual control for the throttle and steering.

    4 votes
  13. Comment on The people who want you to stop having babies in ~humanities

    nic Link Parent
    You are fighting against a billion year old biological imperative that often expresses itself with the well meaning question "so when are you planning to have children?" I've definitely noticed an...

    It's gotten to the point that I'm trying to analyze it and tone it down.

    You are fighting against a billion year old biological imperative that often expresses itself with the well meaning question "so when are you planning to have children?"

    And meanwhile, while we struggle with this decision and are trying to come to terms with it, nobody else seems to care or ask themselves the same question-- or if they do, they seem more confident in their decision than we'd ever be.

    I've definitely noticed an inverse correlation between confidence and competence.

    9 votes
  14. Comment on The human beings behind the statistics in ~talk

    nic Link
    General reminder: When you encounter an accident, avoid moving the victims. Unless the victim is in imminent danger from fire or something else, leave the person in place until emergency services...

    General reminder: When you encounter an accident, avoid moving the victims. Unless the victim is in imminent danger from fire or something else, leave the person in place until emergency services arrive. For cyclists, leave the helmet on.

    8 votes
  15. Comment on What are some lifehacks you would recommend? in ~life

  16. Comment on What are some lifehacks you would recommend? in ~life

    nic Link
    Write down a 5 year plan. Set out long term goals for yourself. Review your progress in five years time. Check off items that were completed. If something was not completed, either cross it out or...

    Write down a 5 year plan.

    Set out long term goals for yourself. Review your progress in five years time. Check off items that were completed. If something was not completed, either cross it out or come up with a tangible action you can take to get you to your goal.

    It is amazing how something so simple can be so motivating.

    2 votes
  17. Comment on What are some lifehacks you would recommend? in ~life

    nic (edited ) Link
    Ditch the landline and get a Google Voice Obihai box. Edit: You are effectively plugging your physical phone into Google voice, which blocks robo callers, emails voicemail transcripts, offers low...

    Ditch the landline and get a Google Voice Obihai box.

    Edit: You are effectively plugging your physical phone into Google voice, which blocks robo callers, emails voicemail transcripts, offers low cost international calls etc...

    2 votes
  18. Comment on What are some lifehacks you would recommend? in ~life

    nic Link
    Buy 10 pairs of the same black socks, and never have to match socks again.

    Buy 10 pairs of the same black socks, and never have to match socks again.

    23 votes
  19. Comment on Should clicking an article on Tildes be a prerequisite for posting a comment in the associated thread? in ~tildes

    nic Link Parent
    Why? You think people are more likely to read text if it is embedded in the topic?

    Why? You think people are more likely to read text if it is embedded in the topic?

    1 vote
  20. Comment on Should clicking an article on Tildes be a prerequisite for posting a comment in the associated thread? in ~tildes

    nic Link
    You could track whether someone clicks on a link, but how do you track if someone read the text of a post without an article? An alternate approach would be to track the time when the topic was...

    You could track whether someone clicks on a link, but how do you track if someone read the text of a post without an article?

    An alternate approach would be to track the time when the topic was first opened and the time a user comments on the topic. You could easily identify speedy commenters. Simply tracking the data on the backend might produce some interesting insights.

    1 vote