nic's recent activity

  1. Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance

  2. Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance

    nic
    Link Parent
    That is deep value territory, I don't expect SpaceX to get there outside a giant bubble popping.

    That is deep value territory, I don't expect SpaceX to get there outside a giant bubble popping.

    4 votes

  3. Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance

    nic
    Link
    Damodaran did a fundamental pricing evaluation of SpaceX before the IPO was filed. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/04/to-trillion-dollars-and-beyond-spacex.html You can read the IPO S-1...

    Damodaran did a fundamental pricing evaluation of SpaceX before the IPO was filed.

    https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/04/to-trillion-dollars-and-beyond-spacex.html

    You can read the IPO S-1 here

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm

    Damodaran estimated a value of $1.2T - close to the value of Tesla today. How does that pan out?

    Damodaran got the margins wrong for the AI business and the SpaceX business. He was on the money for the Starlink business. Damodaran got the growth of revenue projections wrong as well, at least according to the S-1?

    How good is Damodaran?

    Damodaran signaled TSLA was a buy at around $16 in around 2019, of course, he signaled it was a sell seven months later just before the stock went vertical like a sky rocket.... then he signaled it was a buy at around $180 in 2024.... but that is his jam, he is like Buffett, he doesn't buy hype, he buys fundamentals.

    Why compare SpaceX to TSLA? Around 2017-2019 TSLA was similar to SpaceX in terms of revenues, and what not. Sure, it only sold cars. But all it had to do was sell more cars at a profit. One more car specifically. The Model 3. And it did.

    SpaceX has to execute perfectly on three businesses. I wouldn't want to bet against Musk, but I wouldn't want to bet on Musk executing perfectly on three businesses at once, especially after the Cyber Truck fiasco.

    If you take Damodarans analysis and you apply the S1, you probably end up with a value of around $700B, not $1.4T. If you value SpaceX like Tesla used to be valued around 2017-2019, you are looking at closer to $200B-$700B.

    But of course, there is a lot of hype with AI right now, no one can really buy the hype, this will be everyones first chance to buy a competitor to Anthropic/OpenAI... Also, there wont be a lot of stocks to short, and the nasdaq index funds will all be forced to buy this over valued stock due to a change in the index rules, so this stock could rocket up before it comes back down to earth once it can effectively be shorted. They are effectively limiting the float for the first 180 days I believe, so it wont require much money invested to value the company at $2T. Plus a limited float limits the chance to short the company.

    But at $2T IPO, how much can it really go up before people no longer believe?

    This is so reminiscent of the dot com crash.... Ride the wave dudes, but watch out for when it crashes and burns.

    5 votes

  4. Comment on Movie fatigue in ~movies

    nic
    Link Parent
    Oh yeah, they tried to do a remake. It boggles my mind sometimes.

    Oh yeah, they tried to do a remake. It boggles my mind sometimes.

    2 votes

  5. Comment on Tildes Survey #6: Vote for the next four surveys we do! (Results) in ~talk

    nic
    Link Parent
    Oh come on, the entire idea of someone switching your toilet paper around is comedic gold. If someone switched my toilet paper around, I would want to discuss who did it, and why? What are they...

    Oh come on, the entire idea of someone switching your toilet paper around is comedic gold.

    If someone switched my toilet paper around, I would want to discuss who did it, and why? What are they the toilet paper police? Do they have a cat? I don't have a cat. Are they preparing me to get a cat? What are they, the cat police? Is it unhygienic to have a stranger messing with the toilet paper? Especially as they seem to have a cat? Do I need to research toxoplasmosis? Should we just toss the toilet paper out? Can we alarm the toilet paper roll holder so it alerts us to unauthorized tampering? Should we invite everyone back over to identify the culprit? Or is that also a dick move? What do my friends think? What do you mean some of my friends think under is the right way to hang toilet paper? How could I have gone through my entire life without knowing this about them?

    I get that Tildes may not be the best place to debate dumb arguments in such a flippant and light hearted manner, but I do think you are over reacting to what I presumed to be a light hearted flippant jest. Because, I mean really. If there were people going around and switching toilet paper rolls in peoples houses, I think I might have heard about it by now?

    Edit: I am completely in the wrong. Apparently I have been living in a world of privilege. Not only are overs the silent majority at 70%, but 27% of overs have indeed flipped a toilet paper roll over at a friends house. Source

    I think I need time to emotionally process this.

    2 votes

  6. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of May 25 in ~society

    nic
    Link Parent
    Yeah. In Trumps first term he blamed the deep state for failing to make America great. This time round he really isn’t blaming anyone for inflation. He is almost admitting it’s on him, and saying...

    Yeah. In Trumps first term he blamed the deep state for failing to make America great. This time round he really isn’t blaming anyone for inflation. He is almost admitting it’s on him, and saying trust me, I just need time. Which works for his base. But not anyone else. The question I asked, is what if he steals the mid terms. Will his base support him? At what point will republicans buck him?

  7. Comment on Tildes Survey #6: Vote for the next four surveys we do! (Results) in ~talk

    nic
    Link Parent
    See, that's what happens when you let cats into the bathroom. You find yourself hanging toilet paper the wrong way round... and before you know it... you are committing Dr Evil level atrocities...

    See, that's what happens when you let cats into the bathroom. You find yourself hanging toilet paper the wrong way round... and before you know it... you are committing Dr Evil level atrocities like trying to kidnap the president... oh wait. never mind. carry on.

    2 votes

  8. Comment on Movie fatigue in ~movies

    nic
    Link Parent
    If you like The Iron Giant, you will also probably like The Day the Earth Stood Still - a fifties sci fi that still holds up due to the amazing story.

    If you like The Iron Giant, you will also probably like The Day the Earth Stood Still - a fifties sci fi that still holds up due to the amazing story.

    2 votes

  9. Comment on Movie fatigue in ~movies

    nic
    Link Parent
    The Ox-Bow Incident - 40s movie. If you like 12 angry men, you will probably like this, exceptional story Arsenic and Old Lace - screwball comedy from the 40's, pure comedy Seven Samurai - action...

    The Ox-Bow Incident - 40s movie. If you like 12 angry men, you will probably like this, exceptional story

    Arsenic and Old Lace - screwball comedy from the 40's, pure comedy

    Seven Samurai - action movie from the 50's, with really strong writing

    The Iron Giant - 90's sci fi cartoon with really strong writing

    The Breakfast Club - classic 80's movie and is pretty much in one room I think

    In terms of pure writing, you really can't beat the original Twilight Zone series by Rod Serling.

    You should visit your local library, you might find they have an extensive collection of DVDs, then you can go truly old school, buy a DVD player and a TV, and get free DVDs from the library.

    4 votes

  10. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of May 25 in ~society

    nic
    Link Parent
    I have the dubious privilege of being an immigrant in the USA. I understand the hatred. It's stupid. But I understand it. This and Tarriffs are a serious drag on the economy. Trump typifies this...

    I have the dubious privilege of being an immigrant in the USA.

    I understand the hatred. It's stupid. But I understand it.

    This and Tarriffs are a serious drag on the economy.

    Trump typifies this sort of stupid hatred. In the past, the hatred seemed... pointed.

    Like there was a political purpose to rile up the masses. Sith lord style hatred.

    Now it seems like hatred is the point. Trump isn't overthinking things.

    I think that is partly why Trump has been so successful. Non stop outrage generation.

    He never stopped to think "is it too stupid to question Obamas birth certificate."

    Republicans have always fallen in line, and believed that their president knows best.

    Now they have all the permission in the world to hate on anyone different.

    And the more Trump wrecks the economy, the more his base leans into the anger.

    I do wonder where all this ends up. A third term? Or will Trump TACO?

    5 votes

  11. Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk

    nic
    Link Parent
    The contractors are in on it too, man! Think about it. Those after market bidets are what, the number one cause of flooding? Then you have mold remediation, teardown, build up... I don't know if...

    The contractors are in on it too, man! Think about it. Those after market bidets are what, the number one cause of flooding? Then you have mold remediation, teardown, build up... I don't know if it is true, but it feels true.

    11 votes

  12. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of May 25 in ~society

    nic
    Link
    How Trump is transforming Washington - by adding his face everywhere ...including the Trump Kennedy Center, the Donald J Trump United States Institute of Peace and the White House, where a...

    How Trump is transforming Washington - by adding his face everywhere

    ...including the Trump Kennedy Center, the Donald J Trump United States Institute of Peace and the White House, where a ballroom is being built. Also coins, and passports. Plus his signature on the dollar bill, the naming the Arc De Trump after himself, and painting the reflecting pool to "kiddie pool blue." That is "reminiscent" of pure authoritarian bullshit. (That last bit might be a little big of my own color commentary.)

    4 votes

  13. Comment on Tildes Survey #6: Vote for the next four surveys we do! (Results) in ~talk

    nic
    Link Parent
    Maybe a comment field? Or is that too much of a pain? The commend field is obviously in addition to the only two possible answers to the question. Under The correct way

    Maybe a comment field? Or is that too much of a pain?

    The commend field is obviously in addition to the only two possible answers to the question.

    1. Under
    2. The correct way
    4 votes

  14. Comment on Tildes Survey #6: Vote for the next four surveys we do! (Results) in ~talk

    nic
    Link
    I think these at least one of these questions could be enhanced. Like the toilet paper over/under thing... it's not just which do you think is the right way, but how strongly do you feel the...

    I think these at least one of these questions could be enhanced.

    Like the toilet paper over/under thing... it's not just which do you think is the right way, but how strongly do you feel the alternative is wrong on a deeply moral level.

    11 votes

  15. Comment on Project Glasswing: An initial update in ~tech

    nic
    Link Parent
    Oh, the article in the previous thread is definitely lacking. I don't need to read it again. I remember it well. I commented with my thoughts here. But I was critiquing the article for being low...

    Oh, the article in the previous thread is definitely lacking.

    I don't need to read it again. I remember it well.

    I commented with my thoughts here.

    But I was critiquing the article for being low quality. Not the poster.

    Who here hasn't posted at least one low quality article or post?

    3 votes

  16. Comment on Tildes Survey #5: Pineapple on pizza? (Results) in ~talk

    nic
    Link Parent
    but will it have pineapple on it? Edit: dang nabbit, I typed too soon!

    pizza pie chart

    but will it have pineapple on it?

    Edit: dang nabbit, I typed too soon!

    4 votes

  17. Comment on Project Glasswing: An initial update in ~tech

    nic
    Link Parent
    flyingpenguin had a valid concern. I don't think they did anything wrong. They advocated for their concern. We aren't here to be an echo chamber. It's also fine if they want to quietly ignore it....

    flyingpenguin had a valid concern.

    I don't think they did anything wrong. They advocated for their concern. We aren't here to be an echo chamber.

    It's also fine if they want to quietly ignore it. I mean, what is there to say? The discussion has moved on.

    I empathize with their concern. Anthropic wouldn't be the first company to not release something, claiming it's too powerful.

    It smacks of marketing hype. I was initially dismissive of the initial press release. But a number of things are different this time, early access is being granted via Glasswing, with $100m free credits.

    This is forcing companies, some who never scanned source code with AI for security concerns, to take this new approach to security seriously.

    This is enabling other companies, who did take security serious, to discover new bugs.

    I just happen to work for one of the companies with early access to Glasswing. If not, I would likely be much more skeptical.

    4 votes

  18. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of May 18 in ~society

    nic
    Link Parent
    His son needs to "financially incentivize" him to attend. It shouldn't take much. I mean, how much did China offer to get Trump to come out against Taiwan? Peanuts!

    His son needs to "financially incentivize" him to attend.

    It shouldn't take much.

    I mean, how much did China offer to get Trump to come out against Taiwan? Peanuts!

    4 votes

  19. Comment on 'The Boys' has ended. What are your thoughts? in ~tv

    nic
    Link
    Season 1 & 2 were amazing. It was so focused on telling a great story, even some conservatives liked it. At some point it started leaning so heavily into political commentary and the shock value...

    Season 1 & 2 were amazing. It was so focused on telling a great story, even some conservatives liked it.

    At some point it started leaning so heavily into political commentary and the shock value of the original comics... that telling a good story became somehow secondary.

    1 vote

  20. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of May 18 in ~society