The utility-scale segment continues to have record-breaking quarterly installation volumes, with 9.8 GWdc installed in Q1 2024. This was the largest first quarter ever for utility-scale deployment, more than double the volume of any previous first quarter. Capacity additions in Florida, Texas, California, and Nevada contributed heavily to the strong quarter. Projects that have faced various delays are coming online.
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After achieving record growth in 2023, the solar industry is expected to install about the same amount of capacity in 2024 -just under 40 GWdc. While growth this year is expected to be flat, this still represents an annual installation volume that is double the size of just two years ago.
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Utility-scale solar growth will remain flat in 2024 and 2025. The pipeline is strong, but buildout is being suppressed by a lack of labor availability, high voltage equipment constraints, and continued trade policy uncertainty, amongst other headwinds.
I mean, the only metrics that matter are per capita and per uh...gigawatt of demand? Obviously china has a higher demand and larger labor force, so one would expect them to vastly outstrip the US...
I mean, the only metrics that matter are per capita and per uh...gigawatt of demand? Obviously china has a higher demand and larger labor force, so one would expect them to vastly outstrip the US in deployment.
It's a question of total demand in the end, not of raw numbers.
Another approach would be to look at supply and demand on a typical day. Looking at electricity generation in California, I don’t think there’s room for solar power to double, but there is some...
Another approach would be to look at supply and demand on a typical day. Looking at electricity generation in California, I don’t think there’s room for solar power to double, but there is some room, and will be room for more as more battery storage comes online.
Another way would be to look at electricity prices. In California they are quite high.
And we could also look at bottlenecks. There are backlogs building new datacenters in the US, which shows that there is unmet demand.
Comment box Scope: comment response, personal analysis Tone: neutral Opinion: yes, mild Sarcasm/humor: none Disregarding labor shortages and so on, if installing solar is cost-competitive, it...
Comment box
Scope: comment response, personal analysis
Tone: neutral
Opinion: yes, mild
Sarcasm/humor: none
Another approach would be to look at supply and demand on a typical day. Looking at electricity generation in California, I don’t think there’s room for solar power to double, but there is some room, and will be room for more as more battery storage comes online.
Disregarding labor shortages and so on, if installing solar is cost-competitive, it could roughly double in CA...
According to that chart, demand at 12pm is about 30 GW, and solar provides 16 GW of that. I see no physical reason why approximately 100% of demand at that time of day cannot be met by solar. Or maybe you can keep wind and nuclear but you can definitely replace that 11 GW of natural gas.
In absolute terms that's a lot of opportunity for solar. Once you hit 100% solar at noon on a regular basis, you are going to be overbuilding to get coverage in the mornings/evenings, which probably isn't cost-competitive. But we aren't at that point yet, according to that graph.
At least in September. I can't see the data in June or July. Maybe we are close to 100% solar earlier in the summer? If so, that is less opportunity for solar expansion... but IDK how much less. The panels are getting really cheap. Seasonal overbuilding might be cost-effective even if daily overbuilding isn't.
But it would still need battery storage, whether that's electrical or sand or whatever. And until that happens we would still need all our natural gas infrastructure. But it wouldn't have to run all the time. That's a win for the environment.
Almost all of our resource limitation problems are in reality just cost of energy problems. The more and cheaper electricity, the better off we are, with no real limit. The things we could do as a...
Almost all of our resource limitation problems are in reality just cost of energy problems. The more and cheaper electricity, the better off we are, with no real limit. The things we could do as a society with technology available today if electricity was 10-100x cheaper sound like science fiction. Goodbye rare earth and fresh water problems, for one.
Now, I freely admit solar alone won't get us there. But I am willing to bet that as we reach saturation during the day, even when taking charging grid-scale batteries in to effect, we'll find other, beneficial uses for that power pretty quickly.
Yes, there could be many new uses for cheap energy. I'm skeptical that it will make other problems will go away since there are other bottlenecks. For example, maintaining the power grid costs...
Yes, there could be many new uses for cheap energy. I'm skeptical that it will make other problems will go away since there are other bottlenecks. For example, maintaining the power grid costs money, so I don't expect that electricity will ever be "too cheap to meter" for retail customers.
For industrial use, it may be possible to bypass that, though. I'm rooting for Terraform Industries.
Yeah, and I'm sure people already are. It's the unfortunate situation that articles go for the more extreme headlines and give info more likely to get clicks rather than info that might be more...
Yeah, and I'm sure people already are. It's the unfortunate situation that articles go for the more extreme headlines and give info more likely to get clicks rather than info that might be more accurate.
The US still seems to be doing fairly well, though:
Solar Market Insight Report Q2 2024
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I mean, the only metrics that matter are per capita and per uh...gigawatt of demand? Obviously china has a higher demand and larger labor force, so one would expect them to vastly outstrip the US in deployment.
It's a question of total demand in the end, not of raw numbers.
Another approach would be to look at supply and demand on a typical day. Looking at electricity generation in California, I don’t think there’s room for solar power to double, but there is some room, and will be room for more as more battery storage comes online.
Another way would be to look at electricity prices. In California they are quite high.
And we could also look at bottlenecks. There are backlogs building new datacenters in the US, which shows that there is unmet demand.
Comment box
Disregarding labor shortages and so on, if installing solar is cost-competitive, it could roughly double in CA...
According to that chart, demand at 12pm is about 30 GW, and solar provides 16 GW of that. I see no physical reason why approximately 100% of demand at that time of day cannot be met by solar. Or maybe you can keep wind and nuclear but you can definitely replace that 11 GW of natural gas.
In absolute terms that's a lot of opportunity for solar. Once you hit 100% solar at noon on a regular basis, you are going to be overbuilding to get coverage in the mornings/evenings, which probably isn't cost-competitive. But we aren't at that point yet, according to that graph.
At least in September. I can't see the data in June or July. Maybe we are close to 100% solar earlier in the summer? If so, that is less opportunity for solar expansion... but IDK how much less. The panels are getting really cheap. Seasonal overbuilding might be cost-effective even if daily overbuilding isn't.
But it would still need battery storage, whether that's electrical or sand or whatever. And until that happens we would still need all our natural gas infrastructure. But it wouldn't have to run all the time. That's a win for the environment.
Yeah, I was assuming it wouldn’t all be solar. How about wind? But okay, I don’t see room for solar to triple. :)
Almost all of our resource limitation problems are in reality just cost of energy problems. The more and cheaper electricity, the better off we are, with no real limit. The things we could do as a society with technology available today if electricity was 10-100x cheaper sound like science fiction. Goodbye rare earth and fresh water problems, for one.
Now, I freely admit solar alone won't get us there. But I am willing to bet that as we reach saturation during the day, even when taking charging grid-scale batteries in to effect, we'll find other, beneficial uses for that power pretty quickly.
Yes, there could be many new uses for cheap energy. I'm skeptical that it will make other problems will go away since there are other bottlenecks. For example, maintaining the power grid costs money, so I don't expect that electricity will ever be "too cheap to meter" for retail customers.
For industrial use, it may be possible to bypass that, though. I'm rooting for Terraform Industries.
Yeah, and I'm sure people already are. It's the unfortunate situation that articles go for the more extreme headlines and give info more likely to get clicks rather than info that might be more accurate.