State energy giant QatarEnergy, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, announced a production halt at its 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared force majeure on LNG shipments, amid the conflict.
Because helium is extracted as a byproduct of natural gas processing, any disruption to LNG output directly cuts helium supply.
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"If those conditions (supply disruption) persist, the market is effectively missing about 5.2 million cubic meters of helium per month," said Aleksandr Romanenko, CEO of market research firm IndexBox.
The disruption is reverberating through a market with little spare production capacity and limited storage, leaving buyers with few short-term alternatives.
Japan's top helium supplier Iwatani (8088.T), opens new tab said it had so far maintained stable supply to customers including semiconductor manufacturers, partly because it also sources helium from the United States and maintains stockpiles in both Japan and the U.S.
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Helium markets operate very differently from most commodities.
Most supply is sold through long-term contracts rather than a transparent spot market, meaning price signals often emerge slowly even as supply tightens.
That opacity makes price discovery difficult, but signs of tightening supply have already begun to emerge.
"Early indications show about 50% spot price increases already," said Anish Kapadia, CEO of market research firm AKAP Energy.
"In a sustained disruption, prices could rise sharply and potentially retest past shortage peaks of more than $2,000 per thousand cubic feet."
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Helium's physical properties add another constraint. The gas is typically shipped in liquid form and gradually evaporates during transport.
"It's a commodity, but it also has a shelf life," said Chris Bakker, CEO of helium developer Avanti (AVN.V), opens new tab.
"So when you liquefy it, and that's how they tend to ship it worldwide, you've got notionally 45 days to get it to the end-user."
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Kornbluth said industries such as medical MRI systems and rocket ships would probably get 100% of their needs, while semiconductor manufacturers might receive 95%.
Lower-priority uses, including welding, diving equipment and party balloons, would likely face deeper cuts.
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