Gold eyes worst month against oil since 1973; mining stocks slump most since 2008

Gold-Oil Ratio Crashes 43% — Worst Monthly Drop Since 1973

Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares, is down 13% month-to-date, falling to $4,580 per ounce as of Thursday morning — its worst absolute monthly drop since October 2008, when Lehman Brothers had just collapsed and global markets were in freefall.

But the absolute decline in gold is almost a distraction from what is happening in relative terms compared to oil prices.

The gold-to-Brent ratio — the number of barrels of crude an ounce of gold can buy — has crashed 43% month-to-date to roughly 40.

Gold is not a simple safe-haven asset that rises in any conflict. Gold is an interest-rate-sensitive asset, and right now, interest rates are the problem.

Rising oil prices, driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption and the broader energy shock, are reigniting inflationary fears that markets had spent months assuming were behind them.

Before the conflict, traders had priced in two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026.

That expectation has now evaporated.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF — as tracked by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF — has shed 29% of its value in 19 days, from a monthly high of $117 to $82 as of Thursday.

The gold mining sector is now on track for the worst monthly collapse since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in October 2008.

It would have seemed unthinkable just weeks ago, as miners were Wall Street’s hottest sector.