Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of March 28

I forgot to look at US COVID numbers yesterday, so I'll do it today.

COVID cases in the US are down 9% to 8.8 per 100k. California is down 29% to 7.6, New York is up 53% to 15. There are big increases in Colorado (up 156% to 28), Texas (up 63% to 17), and Massachusetts (up 36% to 15.) Overall about 18 states are up, though some of those are in states still at very low levels. This looks to me like the start of another wave, but it's happening unevenly. Overall, the US average is still at mid-July levels, when a previous wave was starting.

Hospitalizations down 16% to 5 per 100k. California is down 18% to 4.3, and New York down 14% to 5.8. The only states with increases are Maine, New Hampshire, and Iowa. The US average is about the same as the low point in June. Filled ICU beds is the lowest since the pandemic began, about half what it was in June.

Deaths are down nationwide by 26%, to 0.23 per 100k, or 761 per day. This is approximately what it was last April. Back then it dropped slowly, reaching a low point in mid July. I'd expect the same now; there are fewer people in the hospital but I'd guess that many serious cases have been hanging on since the Omicron wave.

Will Omicron finally overpower China’s COVID defences? (Nature)

If Omicron runs out of control, the effects could be devastating — and similar to the current outbreak in Hong Kong, where deaths have surged and hospitals are overwhelmed. An analysis by Airfinity, a life-sciences market analytics firm in London, suggests that more than one million people in mainland China could die during an Omicron wave, partly because only 50% of people over the age of 80 are fully vaccinated.

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Mainland China faces a similar predicament [to Hong Kong] if the current outbreak is not controlled. China’s overall vaccination rate is higher than 85%. That has been achieved with the introduction of a digital vaccination-passport system — required for entry into many public buildings and workplaces — and a colour-coded ‘health code’ that indicates whether someone poses an infection risk. But Cowling says that older people are less likely to use facilities that require a vaccination passport and have been able to remain unvaccinated.

Older adults can get second coronavirus booster to strengthen waning protection

The Food and Drug Administration authorized a second booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna coronavirus vaccines for people 50 and older at least four months after their first booster. The FDA also updated its authorization of additional doses for people 12 and older who are immunocompromised, saying they are eligible for another booster shot — the fifth inoculation for people at heightened peril from the virus.

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The FDA action was followed within hours by a statement from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updating its booster guidance.

The second booster for adults 50 and older and for people 12 and older who are immunocompromised is expected to become available as early as Wednesday, now that the CDC has updated its guidance allowing those individuals to get it.

Edit: the article was updated in place to say that the CDC approved it too.

Clinics, hospitals brace for end of cushion for uninsured covid care (Washington Post)

The brief email told Paz, a nurse practitioner who is the clinic’s chief executive officer, that at 11:59 p.m. on March 22 the federal COVID-19 Uninsured Program would stop accepting claims for testing and treating for the deadly virus on patients who had no way to pay their medical bills.

On the Wednesday afternoon when Paz opened the federal notice, that deadline loomed just six days away. For a clinic where nearly two-thirds of patients are classified as “unfunded,” the $252,000 the federal program has sent Centro San Vicente has been a lifeline as its staff treated more than 2,000 patients for covid and tested thousands more.

Now, the health center blocks from the Rio Grande is one of more than 50,000 providers of health services nationwide that have run out of time to claim reimbursement from the Department of Health and Human Services for coronavirus testing and care of those without health coverage. And another deadline nears — April 5 — to submit charges for vaccinating the uninsured.

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As the program winds down, the financial pressure isn’t that intense at the moment, because coronavirus case rates have ebbed, Porsa said. But he said he fears what will happen if a new omicron subvariant, like the BA.2, produces another spike in infections and illness.