Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of May 2

Over the past two days, nearly 10% of my college's student body has reported testing positive for covid. This is of course the week after the Drake Relays were held with all its festivities unrestricted and unmasked.

If anyone here is considering or knows anyone considering going to Drake, do not. They care far more about money than the lives of their student population.

Edit: Here is an article by the student news publication on the outbreak

Here's my weekly look at US statistics:

Cases

US cases up 24% to 18 per 100k. This looks like a steady rise since the beginning of April. Up 107% since then. It was last this high at the beginning of March, and before that it was higher since late July, before Delta. (However, there is much more home testing now, so cases may not be comparable.) Source: Washington Post / John Hopkins.

California up 20% to 11 per 100k. Also doubled since the beginning of April. San Francisco is at 27 per 100k, triple what it was. Other bay area counties not as high, but up there. (Source: CA state.) On Twitter, Bob Wachter reports a similar jump in a different way of measuring cases: "in last few weeks, ATPR [asymptomatic test pos rate] is⬆3-fold, now 3.4%. Implies ~1/30 asymptomatic folks in SF are pos."

For the most part, though, the East Coast still looks higher overall. New York City dipped last week but is up again; alert level now "medium."

Hospitalizations

US hospitalizations up 9% to 5.2 per 100k, same as April 12. No longer an all-time low as it was briefly. California is up 12% according to Washington Post, but it doesn't show on the CA site which doesn't have the latest data. NYC hospitalizations still flat.

Deaths

US Deaths down 12% to .1 per 100k, or 337 per day. It was last this low in July. In California it looks like it's the lowest since the pandemic began, but hard to say since recent data is pending. NYC also declining.

China’s unvaccinated elderly prevent an end to covid lockdowns

The head epidemiologist of the national covid response team, Liang Wannian, said last week that vaccination rates among the elderly and children were not high enough, and “if we choose the so-called policy of coexisting with the virus, medical resources would be very likely be overwhelmed.”

[...]

Only 56 percent of residents over 60 have at least one shot in Shenshan, far below the numbers for all other age groups. Vaccines weren’t even available for the elderly in Shenzhen until June 2021, after 88 percent of residents between the ages of 18 and 59 had received at least one shot.

[...]

From the start, China took a different approach to immunization. Unlike many Western countries, which prioritized the elderly and immunocompromised groups to minimize deaths, China targeted people considered most likely to spread the virus.

At the time, China’s mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures had brought cases down to near zero. The goal for officials was “preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence.” First up for vaccines, therefore, were workers at customs and airports, taxi drivers, overseas business travelers and anyone else considered a potential vector to bring the virus into China and spread it.

Shifting messaging has also exacerbated the vaccine hesitancy. Vaccines were initially approved only for younger groups, with officials reassuring older people that they were protected by the vaccination of others and warning of the shots’ possible risks.

New Zealand welcomes back tourists as it eases pandemic rules

New Zealand welcomed tourists from the U.S., Canada, Britain, Japan and more than 50 other countries for the first time in more than two years Monday after dropping most of its remaining pandemic border restrictions.

[...]

New Zealand reopened to tourists from Australia three weeks ago and on Monday to about 60 visa-waiver countries, including much of Europe. Most tourists from India, China and other non-waiver countries are still not allowed to enter.

Tourists will need to be vaccinated and to test themselves for the virus before and after arriving.