13 votes

How outbreaks spread exponentially: comparing social distancing, quarantining, and unmitigated spread of the virus

2 comments

  1. psi
    Link
    I editorialized the title a bit here; the article really sells itself short. Since eradicating the virus is currently impossible, the only way of ameliorating the potential fallout is by slowing...

    I editorialized the title a bit here; the article really sells itself short.

    Since eradicating the virus is currently impossible, the only way of ameliorating the potential fallout is by slowing the spread of the virus. As the outbreak wears on, expect to see hospitals overwhelmed by coronavirus patients [1, 2], which will limit who receives access to care. Most countries are implementing social distancing protocols; the UK, notably, is not [3]. Instead, the government believes that by exposing young people now, the resulting herd immunity will protect the most vulnerable (presumably, this measure will also lessen the economic fallout [4]). Hopefully this article will illustrate why the UK's approach is so dangerous: allowing an unmitigated spread of coronavirus will burden healthcare workers to a much greater extent than an abated spread.


    [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/14/hospital-doctors-patients-coronavirus/
    [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-nhs-private-hospitals-join-forces-academics-warn-over-strategy
    [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-51632801
    [4] https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-school-closures-uk-gdp-ministers-warned

    3 votes
  2. kfwyre
    Link
    This is a great teaching tool for why social distancing measures are important. Very well-done and easy to understand.

    This is a great teaching tool for why social distancing measures are important. Very well-done and easy to understand.

    2 votes