Consider something as basic as data entry. Different countries and regions collect data in different ways. There’s no single spreadsheet everyone is filling out that can easily allow us to compare cases and deaths around the world. Even within the United States, doctors say we’re underreporting the total number of deaths due to COVID-19.
The same inconsistencies apply to who gets tested. Some countries are giving tests to anyone who wants one. Others are … not. That affects how much we can know about how many people have actually contracted COVID-19, versus how many people have tested positive.
And the virus itself is an unpredictable contagion, hurting some groups more than others — meaning that local demographics and health care access are going to be big determinants when it comes to the virus’ impact on communities.
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Numbers aren’t facts. They’re the result of a lot of subjective choices that have to be documented transparently and in detail before you can even begin to consider treating the output as fact. How data is gathered — and whether it is gathered the same way each time — matters.
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Think of it like making a pie. If you have a normal recipe, you can do it pretty easily and expect a predictable result that makes sense. But if the recipe contains instructions like “add three to 15 chopped apples, or steaks, or brussels sprouts, depending on what you have on hand” … well, that’s going to affect how tasty this pie is, isn’t it? You can make assumptions about the correct ingredients and their quantity. But those are assumptions — not absolute facts. And if you make too many assumptions in your pie-baking process, you might very well end up with something entirely different than what you were meant to be making. And you wouldn’t necessarily know you got it wrong.
From the article:
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Today they published a comic adaptation of basically the same argument, from Zach Weinersmith, the author of Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal.