11 votes

How arrogance destroys armies - overconfidence and the road to military failure

4 comments

  1. [4]
    l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page. ... If the worst thing that...

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    ...

    If the worst thing that can happen to a military is losing a war, sometimes the second worst thing might be winning one.

    Previously on this channel we've talked about some of the deliberate ways in which leaders might sabotage their own militaries - corruption, falsified reporting or picking political favorites over competent candidates.

    Sometimes though, a force can be slowly undermined by leaders that don't even know they're doing so - in fact, they may actually think they're doing great.

    This is the realm of arrogance and overconfidence. In the future, we may dive a little deeper and have a look at examples of how this phenomenon has swung battles and campaigns, but today we're going to look at it at a higher level - how arrogance can limit the ability of a force to evolve, adapt, and avoid future defeat.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing (shortened as I'm t:

    Lieutenant R. E. Bassler -Tryon and the Victoria
    September 1934 Proceedings Vol. 60/9/379
    https://www.usni.org/magazines/procee...

    RKK International Centre for Defence And Security - Lorenzo Crippa
    Putin's Henchmen, the Russian National Guard in the Invasion of Ukraine
    https://icds.ee/en/putins-henchmen-th...

    Not included but a solid example I'll return to - Reporting on then Russian Defence Minister Grachev claiming Grozny could be taken in two hours (it was not taken in two hours)
    https://www.rferl.org/a/1056335.html

    TASS - Russia’s chief research institute doubts effectiveness of reusable rockets
    https://tass.com/science/853567

    Reporting on Arianespace CEO in 2016 on reusability
    https://x.com/pbdes/status/6843291359...

    Brycetech space activity figures Q1 2025
    https://brycetech.com/reports/report-...

    Featured reporting on the Putin "Kyiv in 2 weeks" claim
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/201...

    https://www.reuters.com/article/world...

    Geoffrey Reagan - Great Military Blunders

    Lukashenko image
    https://www.intellinews.com/president...

    Caveats & Comments:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be
    considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:03:11 — Why Arrogance Matters
    00:09:55 — Arrogance at Every Level
    00:14:54 — Arrogance & Compliance
    00:26:41 — the Arrogance of Victory
    00:38:25 — Arrogance & Reform - Technology
    00:51:07 — Mitigations
    00:57:16 — Channel Update

    3 votes
    1. [3]
      3WolfMoon
      Link Parent
      You should be able to get the description with complete links easily with yt-dlp's --get-description. In this case yt-dlp --get-description https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xoRpMoDffI gives the...

      Links do not copy properly

      You should be able to get the description with complete links easily with yt-dlp's --get-description. In this case yt-dlp --get-description https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xoRpMoDffI gives the following output:

      If the worst thing that can happen to a military is losing a war, sometimes the second worst thing might be winning one.

      Previously on this channel we've talked about some of the deliberate ways in which leaders might sabotage their own militaries - corruption, falsified reporting or picking political favorites over competent candidates.

      Sometimes though, a force can be slowly undermined by leaders that don't even know they're doing so - in fact, they may actually think they're doing great.

      This is the realm of arrogance and overconfidence. In the future, we may dive a little deeper and have a look at examples of how this phenomenon has swung battles and campaigns, but today we're going to look at it at a higher level - how arrogance can limit the ability of a force to evolve, adapt, and avoid future defeat.

      Patreon:
      https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

      Reading and Sourcing (shortened as I'm t:

      Lieutenant R. E. Bassler -Tryon and the Victoria
      September 1934 Proceedings Vol. 60/9/379
      https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1934/september/tryon-and-victoria

      RKK International Centre for Defence And Security - Lorenzo Crippa
      Putin's Henchmen, the Russian National Guard in the Invasion of Ukraine
      https://icds.ee/en/putins-henchmen-the-russian-national-guard-in-the-invasion-of-ukraine/

      Not included but a solid example I'll return to - Reporting on then Russian Defence Minister Grachev claiming Grozny could be taken in two hours (it was not taken in two hours)
      https://www.rferl.org/a/1056335.html

      TASS - Russia’s chief research institute doubts effectiveness of reusable rockets
      https://tass.com/science/853567

      Reporting on Arianespace CEO in 2016 on reusability
      https://x.com/pbdes/status/684329135947280384

      Brycetech space activity figures Q1 2025
      https://brycetech.com/reports/report-documents/bryce-briefing-2025-Q1/

      Featured reporting on the Putin "Kyiv in 2 weeks" claim
      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/putin-russian-forces-could-conquer-ukraine-capital-kiev-fortnight

      https://www.reuters.com/article/world/putin-comment-on-taking-kiev-in-2-weeks-taken-out-of-context-aide-idUSKBN0GX0JS/

      Geoffrey Reagan - Great Military Blunders

      Lukashenko image
      https://www.intellinews.com/president-of-belarus-reveals-russian-invasion-plans-in-viral-video-236712/

      Caveats & Comments:

      All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

      Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

      Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be
      considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

      Timestamps:
      00:00:00 — Opening Words
      00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About?
      00:03:11 — Why Arrogance Matters
      00:09:55 — Arrogance at Every Level
      00:14:54 — Arrogance & Compliance
      00:26:41 — the Arrogance of Victory
      00:38:25 — Arrogance & Reform - Technology
      00:51:07 — Mitigations
      00:57:16 — Channel Update

      I know you've been consistently sharing these videos and descriptions for quite a while, so apologies if this has been discussed previously and/or is a nonstarter for some reason.

      2 votes
      1. [2]
        l_one
        Link Parent
        Hmm. I'm guessing I'm doing something wrong here, putting that into terminal (I do have yt-dlp installed) gives error 400 bad request and 'unable to download API page'. EDIT: just checked, I'm on...

        Hmm. I'm guessing I'm doing something wrong here, putting that into terminal (I do have yt-dlp installed) gives error 400 bad request and 'unable to download API page'.

        EDIT: just checked, I'm on yt-dlp version 2022.04.08-1 which is the Linux Mint recognized stable System package. I probably need to manually update to the latest on Github to give this a fair shot of working properly. Thank you for this, it is helpful. My prior option involved needing to learn Python which was a bit much of a time investment ask for improving descriptions - not that I am uninterested in learning Python, but my To-Do list eclipses the amount of stuff I have the mental and emotional energy to accomplish by... more than one order of magnitude.

        yt-dlp --get-description https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xoRpMoDffI
        WARNING: [youtube] YouTube said: ERROR - Precondition check failed.
        WARNING: [youtube] HTTP Error 400: Bad Request. Retrying ...
        WARNING: [youtube] YouTube said: ERROR - Precondition check failed.
        WARNING: [youtube] HTTP Error 400: Bad Request. Retrying ...
        WARNING: [youtube] YouTube said: ERROR - Precondition check failed.
        WARNING: [youtube] HTTP Error 400: Bad Request. Retrying ...
        WARNING: [youtube] YouTube said: ERROR - Precondition check failed.
        WARNING: [youtube] Unable to download API page: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request (caused by <HTTPError 400: 'Bad Request'>); please report this issue on https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp/issues?q= , filling out the appropriate issue template. Confirm you are on the latest version using yt-dlp -U
        WARNING: [youtube] nsig extraction failed: You may experience throttling for some formats
        n = 8IXFK-bwGeE8Qw30G ; player = https://www.youtube.com/s/player/6ea06c52/player_ias.vflset/en_US/base.js
        9xoRpMoDffI: Traceback (most recent call last):
        File "/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/yt_dlp/extractor/youtube.py", line 2517, in _decrypt_nsig
        self._player_cache[player_id] = self._extract_n_function(video_id, player_url)
        File "/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/yt_dlp/extractor/youtube.py", line 2543, in _extract_n_function
        funcname = self._extract_n_function_name(jscode)
        File "/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/yt_dlp/extractor/youtube.py", line 2526, in _extract_n_function_name
        nfunc, idx = self._search_regex(
        File "/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/yt_dlp/extractor/common.py", line 1229, in _search_regex
        raise RegexNotFoundError('Unable to extract %s' % _name)
        yt_dlp.utils.RegexNotFoundError: Unable to extract Initial JS player n function name; please report this issue on https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp/issues?q= , filling out the appropriate issue template. Confirm you are on the latest version using yt-dlp -U
        (caused by RegexNotFoundError('Unable to extract \x1b[0;94mInitial JS player n function name\x1b[0m; please report this issue on https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp/issues?q= , filling out the appropriate issue template. Confirm you are on the latest version using yt-dlp -U')); please report this issue on https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp/issues?q= , filling out the appropriate issue template. Confirm you are on the latest version using yt-dlp -U
        ERROR: [youtube] 9xoRpMoDffI: Unable to extract uploader id; please report this issue on https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp/issues?q= , filling out the appropriate issue template. Confirm you are on the latest version using yt-dlp -U

        2 votes
        1. 3WolfMoon
          Link Parent
          I'd say you're on the right track with needing a more recent version. I'd guess Mint, being based on Ubuntu and in turn Debian, is mostly going to have outdated but stable packages. Unfortunately...

          2022.04.08-1

          I'd say you're on the right track with needing a more recent version. I'd guess Mint, being based on Ubuntu and in turn Debian, is mostly going to have outdated but stable packages. Unfortunately that doesn't pair too well with a program like yt-dlp, which has to constantly adjust to YouTube's frequent blocks and changes.

          2 votes