Should I go heat pump only?

Hi all,

I am in the middle of taking bids with my local HVAC companies and am looking for someone to nudge me in one direction or the other. For background, I bought my house in western Michigan, right off the lake Michigan coast near Grand Rapids, last Fall. My home inspection made it clear the AC would need work and I haven't started to feel the need for it until recently. I called an HVAC company out and when they said the unit was 25+ years old, I just told them to forget about even fixing it because it would be at least 10% of the cost of a new unit and still way less efficient.

So.

My natural gas furnace is also ~20 years old and the first HVAC guy said that if it broke down, it likely wouldn't pass a safety inspection. They said something about how the coils being dirty or positioned someway or something, I can't really recall 100% what the issue would be but the gist that I got was that when it breaks down, whether it be 1 year, 2 years, or 5 years, it won't be worth fixing or it will be unfixable. A new AC would be ~$6500 and a new furnace would be ~$7000.

So I started up the conversation towards installing a heat pump unit in instead of a standard AC unit. My initial thinking is that when the furnace goes, I have the back up ready to go instead. Now a heat pump unit is going to cost me around $2000 more. I don't think my plan will be to ever install a replacement furnace. Depending on what the solar assessment says, evaluating both ground mounted and roof mounted solar, will tell me how worth it is to go that route and have discounted or free heating and cooling.

Where the calculus gets tricky for me is there is the Inflation Reduction Act which will give me a $2000 tax credit for a heat pump. But that will come with buying a more expensive, and efficient unit, and I believe I will also have to completely get rid of the furnace I currently have since the total home system has to meet the efficiency standard. In addition, last month I replaced my fuse box with a 200 amp panel and if I meet the requirements to get the $2000 tax credit, I would also get $600 tax credit for the panel since I can tie them together.

All in all, I am looking at getting a more efficient unit for roughly the same price as the less efficient unit but without the natural gas furnace as either main heating, or back up heating. My hesitation is that natural gas is so cheap that it doesn't make sense financially to go heat pump only unless I have renewable energy to pair with it. But maybe I am just overthinking it? And maybe I have gotten something wrong in my calculations?

Any advice or clarifications would be greatly appreciated. I have one more quote coming this Thursday and I hope to make a decision by Friday to get the work started