carsonc's recent activity
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Comment on How to stop negative thoughts and reset your mind for positive thinking in ~health.mental
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Comment on Galactic empires may live at the center of our galaxy, hence why we don't hear from them in ~space
carsonc (edited )LinkThe effects of time dilation on a civilization orbiting a super massive black hole were new to me, but I think the biggest, blackest hole in this theory is the instability of stars in the galactic...- Exemplary
The effects of time dilation on a civilization orbiting a super massive black hole were new to me, but I think the biggest, blackest hole in this theory is the instability of stars in the galactic center.
Considering both of these contributions, we can assume that the [supernova] rate should be particularly high in the vicinity of the [galactic center]. arXiv
Supernovae are fairly lethal events for the surrounding environment. The arXiv paper is looking at only the first 15 ly, but supernovae can reset clock for life on planets at sizable radii, well beyond the 100 ly radius of the article. Indigenous complex life emerging in this region would be unthinkable and the thought of intelligent life relocating to a region like this would make one reconsider the designation.
With the time dilation effects, supernovae frequencies would also be accelerated by a factor of 100. The ~250 kyr span between supernovae would contract to 2.5 kyr, not the blessed rarity that makes complex life on earth possible. So these aliens would have to turn around and head out right as they make it in (after, of course, a very long trip to galactic center). Then, as they move closer to safety, they no longer get to enjoy these vaunted energetic and time dilational effects.
What surprising to me about the article is that the simplest candidate for Fermi's Paradox isn't discussed: stellar evolution is not compatible with complex life. The Hertzprung-Russel diagram is fairly unsparing in this regard. It took almost 3 billion years for life to evolve past the multi-cellular stage on this planet, and we don't even know why the earth was able to stay in the Goldilocks Zone that whole time.
The notion that the existence of intelligent life at all was so outlandish that it should be met with skepticism was first introduced to me in Stanislaw Lem's story The World as Cataclysm. I could appreciate the discussion of the improbability of life on earth, but the story had little to support it beyond simply listing remarkably rare events that must have led to the emergence of complex life on earth. But a more grounded version of this theory is neatly summed up as the Gaian Bottleneck Hypothesis, which basically says that the universe is supportive of unicellular life, but generally lacks the patience it might need to develop into more complex forms.
Now maybe in the far future, in 30 billion years when things will have cooled down a little, there will be more candidates for life. Maybe in small, sleepy galactic edges where dangerous events are more rare. There is plenty of speculation (highly specious, in my opinion) that can be applied to fantasize about the possibility of complex life outside of our own planet, but imagining that intelligent life would willingly relocate to the galactic equivalent of a nuclear weapon test range beggars belief.
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Comment on First shape found that can’t pass through itself in ~science
carsonc Link ParentThere is actually a Quanta Magazine about just that: Computer Scientists Prove That Certain Problems Are Truly HardThere is actually a Quanta Magazine about just that:
Computer Scientists Prove That Certain Problems Are Truly Hard -
Comment on Jenny Chase 2025 “opinions about solar” thread in ~enviro
carsonc LinkSo, I may have missed it, but I'm surprised that increasing electricity prices were not highlighted as drivers for new installations of rooftop and domestic solar. Where I live, there has been a...So, I may have missed it, but I'm surprised that increasing electricity prices were not highlighted as drivers for new installations of rooftop and domestic solar. Where I live, there has been a 25% in electricity rates during the past 3 years. We got our panels two years ago and I knew that the repayment was going to be on the order of 17 years when competing against simple mutual fund investment. However, I also anticipated that energy costs would rise and, because the finance costs and energy generated were more or less fixed, the increasing electrical utility rates would have the effect of reducing my repayment horizon by increasing the value of the good the solar panels were producing.
We aren't net producers, or else I would have an interest in the price of electricity going infinite, but it makes the portion of what I do produce more valuable. If you think energy rates will be more susceptible to inflation than other sectors, and you are considering solar panels, you should know that higher future energy prices will shorten you payback horizon.
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Comment on A tower on Billionaires' Row in New York is full of cracks. Who's to blame? (gifted link) in ~engineering
carsonc LinkI couldn't help thinking about the Tower of Babylon story from the Tildes Book Club. There is a glorious spot of schadenfreude in reading about how a newspaper article about how a billionaire's...I couldn't help thinking about the Tower of Babylon story from the Tildes Book Club. There is a glorious spot of schadenfreude in reading about how a newspaper article about how a billionaire's bathroom door doesn't fully close or how their rug got wet this one time. What's amazing to me is that, as far as I can tell, even when the whole multi-billion dollar misadventure ends in fiasco, everyone involved is so wealthy that they will pretty much just skate with no consequences beyond the fact that some of their favorite numbers will get a little smaller.
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Comment on Can we bury enough wood to slow climate change? in ~enviro
carsonc (edited )Link ParentWell 5 Gt/yr may be outdated. A 2022 paper in Nature is placing that number at 13 Gt/yr, which is better to be sure. This would mean that the decarbonization would be taking place of a 50 - 100...Well 5 Gt/yr may be outdated. A 2022 paper in Nature is placing that number at 13 Gt/yr, which is better to be sure. This would mean that the decarbonization would be taking place of a 50 - 100 year horizon in a zero-emissions scenario.
Although I am interested in this topic, I'm not in a position to criticize how optimistic their projections are. Presumably, newer projections are better than older ones. Even so, I think claims that decarbonization can be accomplished if people just planted more trees vastly understate the magnitude of the problem.
Edit: I think the discrepancy between my previous estimate and the one in the paper shows up here (emphasis mine):
We estimate that ~1/5 more carbon, totaling 13.74 PgC yr⁻¹ could be added to the current NPP (net primary production) from global terrestrial vegetation if the identified OLMPs (optimal land-management practices) get implemented, or a net effect of reducing 3.5–4.0 PgCyr⁻¹ from the atmosphere.
So their top line number (13.74) is only primary production, discounting the carbon that will return to the atmosphere after production. This will decarbonization the atmosphere at ~4 GtCyr⁻¹.
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Comment on Can we bury enough wood to slow climate change? in ~enviro
carsonc LinkI can't access the article or the archive version at present, but, as I understand it, the problem with bio-sequestration is throughput. There are around 1.5 teratonnes of anthropogenic CO₂ to...I can't access the article or the archive version at present, but, as I understand it, the problem with bio-sequestration is throughput. There are around 1.5 teratonnes of anthropogenic CO₂ to remediate, and my understanding of bio-remediation is that it has a top speed of around 5 gigatonnes per year. So, yes, you can use biological methods to decarbonize the atmosphere, but it's going to take 300 years to get there. That might work fine, but if the carbon is causing havoc in the meantime, that's a long time to wait for the remediation to take place.
I'm not saying that we shouldn't; every little bit helps and it is the least expensive form of sequestration. But expecting it to perform the bulk of the decarbonization is asking for a lot of patience. Machines took the carbon out fast. You'll need machines if you want to put the carbon back fast.
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Comment on Can we bury enough wood to slow climate change? in ~enviro
carsonc Link ParentActually, the anoxic environment of the landfill can be very good at preserving newsprint. I think recycling is great, like everyone else, but it is quite an energy hog. Whereas making virgin pulp...Actually, the anoxic environment of the landfill can be very good at preserving newsprint. I think recycling is great, like everyone else, but it is quite an energy hog. Whereas making virgin pulp burns half the tree (a biofuel) for the energy to turn the other half into paper with little in the way of additional energy needed, paper recycling needs a lot of energy to reprocess and dry pulp into paper.
Meanwhile, we could either burn the paper to recover the remainder of its energy and return the carbon that it held into the atmosphere or bury it, as you suggest.
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Comment on What ridiculous thing would you spend billions on? in ~talk
carsonc Link ParentYou are correct, I did misunderstand your idea. I think that combination of two ideas could pull it into the realm of reality. @I_one suggested in-place production of reflectors. Rather than...You are correct, I did misunderstand your idea. I think that combination of two ideas could pull it into the realm of reality. @I_one suggested in-place production of reflectors. Rather than building the actuation for turning giant reflectors, you could build the on-moon reflectors as retroreflectors to improve the efficiency of the light reaching earth. Then you could cut back on the number of photons that need to be involved, as the scattering moves from Huygens to specular. If you shrink down the area and rely on the enhanced contrast during the lunar night, you might be able to go from the megatonne level to the kilotonne level, which makes the launch costs more realistic.
There are still problems with managing thousands of these giant orbiting reflectors that eventually become solar sails, with enormous cross-sections for collision massively raising the risk of Kessler Syndrome.
But those are just implementation challenges.
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Comment on What ridiculous thing would you spend billions on? in ~talk
carsonc Link ParentThe orbital space laser was the dream of Star Wars and, while being above the atmosphere would certainly cut down on some of your transmission losses, unfortunately photons still take energy to...The orbital space laser was the dream of Star Wars and, while being above the atmosphere would certainly cut down on some of your transmission losses, unfortunately photons still take energy to make, and you are going to need a lot of them, even if you are generating the photons from above the sky. The defense applications, though, would be even more formidable.
The moon mirror monitor concept is certainly out of the box thinking. However, this would require an even larger expenditure to accomplish. Suppose we wanted to put a set of 1 g/m² mirror (made from an extremely thin backing with a thinner layer of Al for reflection) over a 1×10¹² m² area of coverage. Well that's 1×10⁹ kg, or 1 megatonne of mass to move to the moon. At the price of $1 million USD to move 1 kg to the moon, we would be looking at $1 trillion USD just to stage the mirror material on the moon.
The mirrors would then start to lose their lustre over time, as the continual cascade of lunar dust covers them and reduces their contrast. But you could probably do very low framerate movies with it if you wanted to. While it lasted.
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Comment on What ridiculous thing would you spend billions on? in ~talk
carsonc Link ParentRespectfully, although I entirely concur with your aims, the means to achieve them are woefully insufficient. The moon has a surface of ~40 million square kilometers, or 4×10¹³ m², only half of...Respectfully, although I entirely concur with your aims, the means to achieve them are woefully insufficient. The moon has a surface of ~40 million square kilometers, or 4×10¹³ m², only half of which is visible from the earth. 24/7 projection is difficult for many reasons, as the moon, itself, is only visible to the vast majority of the inhabited portion of the globe about 12/7. Furthermore, the waxing and waning phases will make visibility challenging, especially at the Full Moon (as the image would compete with direct solar illumination) and at the New Moon (as the entire moon is mostly obscured during the daytime by the illuminated sky).
Setting these aside, if you wanted to briefly illuminate a dark portion of the moon (say, at half moon) visible to the earth, you would need to illuminate about 1×10¹² m². To light this up with solar levels of radiation (1 kW/m²) would require 1 petawatt of power (not counting the atrocious wall plug efficiency of high beam quality lasers). So, at 15¢ per kW, we would be talking about $150 B per hour to operate. Given the parameters of the hypothetical situation, I think you get a minute, tops, of Enima of the State projected onto the moon.
For context, the United States enjoys an average power generation of 1.3 terawatts, so the Enima laser would require over 1,000 times the energy production of the US alone. Some people might not like Enima of the State, but if you had both the laser and the power to run it, I bet people would let you do pretty much whatever you want.
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Comment on The liquid air alternative to fossil fuels in ~enviro
carsonc Link ParentI'd also like to say that "energy storage" will never be a "one size fits all" solution for the simple reason that different energy storage methods have different time constants. Some have a short...I'd also like to say that "energy storage" will never be a "one size fits all" solution for the simple reason that different energy storage methods have different time constants. Some have a short time constant for responding to rapid fluctuations (i. e. flywheels). Others have very long time constants for slow fluctuations (i. e. water electrolysis). No energy storage system that aims to produce perfect power should ever rely on a single method of storage alone.
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Comment on An AI that turns any book into a text adventure game in ~books
carsonc Link ParentDid you make it into space? There were some challenges with getting... adequate nutrition. I hope this version has enough for everyone to eat.Did you make it into space? There were some challenges with getting... adequate nutrition. I hope this version has enough for everyone to eat.
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Comment on Shipping emissions mandate led to spike in global temperatures in ~enviro
carsonc Link ParentNeal Stephenson's book, Termination Shock, was published in 2021:Neal Stephenson's book, Termination Shock, was published in 2021:
The book's title refers to the idea that once a solar geoengineering scheme begins, abruptly stopping it would result in rapid warming, called a termination shock. (Wikipedia)
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Comment on Meta: A Human-Friendly Programming Language in ~comp
carsonc Link ParentYeah, I had never heard of Rebol, but reading through the description is like finding yourself in an anarchist utopia, where there are no explicit rules, but rather unspoken ones that, when broken...Yeah, I had never heard of Rebol, but reading through the description is like finding yourself in an anarchist utopia, where there are no explicit rules, but rather unspoken ones that, when broken lead to terrible consequences.
"What reserved words do you have here? Who's in charge?"
"REBOL has no keywords; there are no restrictions on what words are used or how they are used. For instance, you can define your own function called print and use it instead of the predefined function for printing values."
"Wait, what? Then how do you control flow?"
We have conditional evaluation. "The if function takes two arguments. … The either function extends if to include a third argument. … The most commonly made mistake in REBOL is to forget the second block on either or add a second block to if. These both create hard-to-find errors."
"That's crazy! Why would anyone choose to live like this?"
"Here is a single-line program that opens a graphical user interface for sending an email written in 130 characters.
"How can I join?"
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Comment on So I'm autistic after all in ~health.mental
carsonc LinkHello fellow Autism enjoyer! Congratulations and welcome to the club. You no longer need to feel like an imposter: you're the real deal. However, I would like to take this opportunity to point out...Hello fellow Autism enjoyer! Congratulations and welcome to the club. You no longer need to feel like an imposter: you're the real deal. However, I would like to take this opportunity to point out some of the features of your newly applied diagnosis. As a diagnosis it is, sadly, very vague, as you may have sensed. So, beyond a kind of social crutch for those plentiful awkward situations where you find out, all too late, what kind of inexplicable faux pas or slight you have just committed, it might have limited value.
The utility of a more in-depth assessment is not to provide some kind of more official-looking document for the occasional Autism Inspector, but rather to help you ascertain what it is that got in return for your particular flavor of interpersonal blindness. That is, you may have recieved a particular gift, which others do not possess. Now, you probably have an idea about what this is because you rely on it for your employment in one way or another. However, a more thorough test, perhaps indistinguishable from an IQ test, will tell you more about which skills of yours are particularly rare and by how much. One in a thousand? One in ten thousand? One in a hundred thousand?
For me I discovered that, yes, I actually am good at math, but I am actually much better at other things. The fact that math was harder for me than other things was not a sign that I was bad at it (as I had erroneously inferred) and I should feel bad about it, rather that I was just really good at something else and I should probably focus on that and leave the harder math to the people who were better at it and enjoyed it more.
It's been great. I tell people what I am good at and focus on being the best at that thing that I can be. They are very happy to know because (1) they have someone who is very good at this thing and (2) they know what it is and know whom to turn to if they need help with it.
So try to find it, then embrace it, then teach those around you to lean on you for it.
Also, communication disorders are real and do have adverse impacts on quality of life and relationships, so make extra efforts to let the people that you love know that you love them, because it will be easy for them to get the impression that you don't, even when you do, because that what happens when you have a communication disorder. "But don't take my word for it..."
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Comment on Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025 for the development of a new type of molecular architecture – metal–organic frameworks in ~science
carsonc LinkI am excited about the Nobel in chemistry for MOFs, the topic of my PhD thesis back in the day! A Chemistry Nobel for Chemists! Banner day!I am excited about the Nobel in chemistry for MOFs, the topic of my PhD thesis back in the day! A Chemistry Nobel for Chemists! Banner day!
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Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025 for the development of a new type of molecular architecture – metal–organic frameworks
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Comment on The Stonecutter (1960) in ~humanities
carsonc LinkWeston Woods was acquired by Scholastic in 1996 and would put out VHS cassettes and DVDs of these stories for kids. By far, these are my favorite kids videos. If you scroll down on the Wikipedia...Weston Woods was acquired by Scholastic in 1996 and would put out VHS cassettes and DVDs of these stories for kids. By far, these are my favorite kids videos. If you scroll down on the Wikipedia link, you'll see The Stonecutter, but also many others as well.
Another favorite of mine is Zin! Zin! Zin! a Violin, with original music composed by none other than Marvin Hamlisch. These are great, and even better I'd you have young kids to watch them with.
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Comment on Berkeley engineers develop customizable, 3D-printed robot for tech newbies in ~tech
carsonc LinkThis looks like a must-have for any high school robotics club or program. Thanks for posting!This looks like a must-have for any high school robotics club or program. Thanks for posting!
I'm glad that the suggestions in the video are working for you. I hope you feel that posting to Tildes about issues of mental health is a tacit solicitation of advice, because, if not, please forgive me. That said, if this is an ongoing challenge, you might consider looking into the work of David Burns Feeling Good. For myself, I find that, even though I haven't touched the book in years, I still find myself referencing it in conversations with friends and family.
CBT (Cognitive Behavioral Therapy), where Burns made a name for himself, is believed to be particularly effective with anxiety.