14 votes

Ukrainian equipment reserves (2025) - production, aid and equipment attrition

7 comments

  1. l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's video. Links do not copy properly, please use links in the description area on YouTube to click through for sources. Every war of attrition has at least two sides....

    Description copied from Perun's video. Links do not copy properly, please use links in the description area on YouTube to click through for sources.

    Every war of attrition has at least two sides.

    Recently on this channel, we dove into estimates of Russian equipment losses and their remaining stores of equipment after nearly three years of hard fighting ( • Russian Equipment Reserves (2024) - P... ). Today, we're turning a similar lens on Ukraine.

    There will be some differences, more focus on foreign assistance and less on domestic storage levels for example, but the core question is similar.

    How are Ukraine's stocks of heavy equipment holding up as we head into 2025, how has the composition of the force changed, and what might that mean for the balance of the war and any negotiations going forward.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing (to be uploaded 21/01/2025 due to delayed release):

    As noted, databases for visually confirmed losses included Oryx and Lostarmour

    Links to mentioned or included articles:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe...

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-beg...

    https://www.twz.com/air/electronic-wa...

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/armytv-prod...

    https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4n...

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us-appr...

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall...

    https://kyivindependent.com/uk-to-sen...

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defe...

    https://aviationphotodigest.com/ukrai...

    Caveats & Comments:
    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way and/or for any purpose

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Timestamps:

    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:03:06 — the Ukrainian Equipment Model
    00:05:55 — Assumptions and Adjustments
    00:08:41 — IFVs
    00:18:18 — Reconciling Losses
    00:29:44 — MBTs
    00:40:29 — APCs, IMVs & MRAPs
    00:44:55 — Aircraft
    00:54:18 — Notes and Trends
    01:02:02 — Channel Update

    1 vote
  2. [6]
    Perryapsis
    Link
    /offtopic How familiar are you with python? This script pulls the actual links out of Youtube's garbled mess. # Unwrap URLs from Youtube video descriptions # Remove tracking junk and fix HTML...

    /offtopic

    Links do not copy properly, please use links in the description area on YouTube to click through for sources.

    How familiar are you with python? This script pulls the actual links out of Youtube's garbled mess.

    # Unwrap URLs from Youtube video descriptions
    # Remove tracking junk and fix HTML escape characters
    # By u/Perryapsis on Tildes.net, 2025-01-19
    def unscramble_youtube_link(original_link):
    	# Find the beginning and end of the actual destination URL
    	url_start_char = original_link.find('&q=') + 3
    	url_end_char   = original_link.find('&v=')
    	new_link = original_link[url_start_char : url_end_char]
    	
    	# Now fix %3A and %2F into : and / respectively
    	new_link = new_link.replace('%3A', ':').replace('%2F', '/')
    	
    	return new_link
    
    # Tests
    # unscramble_youtube_link('https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbnp6d0hyRTZIWDhvRTd2bTRLUXMzeWtYVDJFUXxBQ3Jtc0tuUWZNbjFSV1FrX2pOVEg1eVdtNGFORzFHcVZ4Sk9tY2xXWm1jV2Z2X1BzSzNFMTJsQjREX2k4RFVnLW5yZGNxZ0JybjhWbUJjXzBTYnRCN3JtNElzQl9IY2dmbUhVVFBQVkRrRm81ZHJwWXE3ODhTOA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fdavidaxe%2F2023%2F02%2F16%2Fukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks%2F&v=EHUQmJCa3aY')
    # unscramble_youtube_link('https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbENRU05YN3BXMF9pc3hYRGNwRVZiS3dScFVVZ3xBQ3Jtc0ttNWQyMHNocTQydXZZS2NKQ19sRzJvbmdkSkNSSWVvbzJpNnFiRS1sTWNqQTJteWkxNkNJd2l0eEZDS1FyM2JZdDRldEFYRjJIT2xjWV92aXkxbk40ZGhpOWVJVjAxdVZxUDE0TmhTVmxJa29ic2ZTNA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fmil.in.ua%2Fen%2Fnews%2Fukraine-begins-testing-kf41-lynx-ifv-following-rheinmetall-delivery%2F&v=EHUQmJCa3aY')
    # unscramble_youtube_link('https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbDBZVkVkWjlRSXFwYzNDZ0dJZDUwNkdHUU9Ld3xBQ3Jtc0trd200Znk3TEwyZkNhUngwTnNpLTUtMWtVTnNsdF9FTFNjaEZoeV9qSEVPbldXRjdjbHdVRElxTEV1dE1IM0UwV1V6SXJVdFVKUmRBakdhN19URlh5T19sVnFhOE53V0dxYnNBVU5wc2ZYX294bTd4OA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fair%2Felectronic-warfare-systems-on-ukraines-f-16s-getting-specially-tuned-to-russian-threats-by-usaf&v=EHUQmJCa3aY')
    # unscramble_youtube_link('https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbUZkcWpFWVNzVDVkd2dlcXdSQjBMcUpXdGxuUXxBQ3Jtc0ttMjFlQ05VNG5TSFNLSGtac2UzXzNNMHg4clEzSFpjSzIyc3NBOHRRYldBTEJtTDhKbDExNkhKbWJITGZmU3ZoOVducW12eTYtLVg0VHJieDk3eWwxVGt4NkZuU3hZelZmZG1iSFdIOGx4SEY3VHE1bw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.janes.com%2Fosint-insights%2Fdefence-news%2Fland%2Fukraine-conflict-germany-hands-over-first-rch-155-sph-to-kyiv&v=EHUQmJCa3aY')
    # unscramble_youtube_link('https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbHc4c01RZ0M5MjYxTER1WkozaEk0eDdwSW9MQXxBQ3Jtc0trZzRncndFY0FzVEZUTElYQlh3YkV2QWZOeXhRUHNpN2xuam1BQ05aS00tc1lCeUtHV1FYNzd6dmQ0R1htOE43RFJiMVpQS1FJZnNQd0o1NzV0dXNhZ2RqZ1RpcEtNVTY1bDBJd2pJSVBMS2pmNXdMTQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2Fc4ng1p72wlwo&v=EHUQmJCa3aY')
    
    4 votes
    1. [5]
      l_one
      Link Parent
      Though I am fairly technically adept at most things hardware, and to a lesser extent OS / software from a user point of view, coding is one of the areas I always meant to get into, and never kept...

      Though I am fairly technically adept at most things hardware, and to a lesser extent OS / software from a user point of view, coding is one of the areas I always meant to get into, and never kept up the momentum the few times I tried.

      However, just because I failed to follow through on coding all the other times is not cause to just give up. Do you have any recommendations for a self-teaching resource (video / instructional series / something...) that would be a good intro to learning python?

      I could just Google it, but I figure if you already know this specific language you might have better recommendations.

      Also, thank you for helping to address this, Youtube's / Google's / Alphabet's little annoyances like this to force people to stay on and use their platforms instead of being easily interoperable with other platforms really rubs me the wrong way.

      5 votes
      1. [2]
        Perryapsis
        Link Parent
        That's how I got my start, so unfortunately I can't recommend a specific resource. I got into it when Excel formulas weren't enough to do something I wanted. Python is a pretty popular language...

        I could just Google it

        That's how I got my start, so unfortunately I can't recommend a specific resource. I got into it when Excel formulas weren't enough to do something I wanted. Python is a pretty popular language these days, so you can search for pretty much any elementary task and find a good answer on Stack Exchange, e.g. python how to find a specific word in a string. Eventually you start to remember the most useful stuff without having to look it up, and also learn enough tricks to chain them into something useful.

        Youtube's / Google's / Alphabet's little annoyances like this to force people to stay on and use their platforms instead of being easily interoperable with other platforms really rubs me the wrong way.

        Agreed. I also dislike how many Youtube links now include a si= part that serves no purpose besides tracking. Twitter/X links with an s= do the same thing, as well as Reddit links with /s/<alphabet soup>. And Reddit doesn't let you open reddit-hosted images in a new tab. >:(

        2 votes
        1. l_one
          Link Parent
          Perfectly fair, just thought I'd ask.

          That's how I got my start, so unfortunately I can't recommend a specific resource.

          Perfectly fair, just thought I'd ask.

          2 votes
      2. [2]
        Bwerf
        Link Parent
        I haven't followed it myself, but I've heard a lot of good stuff about this one. https://automatetheboringstuff.com/ . It's free to read online.

        I haven't followed it myself, but I've heard a lot of good stuff about this one. https://automatetheboringstuff.com/ . It's free to read online.

        2 votes
        1. l_one
          Link Parent
          I'll give it a look, thank you.

          I'll give it a look, thank you.

          3 votes