21
votes
US House Speaker Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, defying Beijing
Link information
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- Title
- Pelosi believed headed to Taiwan, raising tension with China
- Published
- Aug 2 2022
- Word count
- 1216 words
Nancy Pelosi: Why I’m leading a congressional delegation to Taiwan (Links to speaker.gov)
If you want to hear a good roundtable of Taiwanese-American voices, Hyphen Magazine has one here: https://hyphenmagazine.com/blog/2022/08/more-escalating-tensions-roundtable-taiwans-recent-representation-western-media
Two of the participants, Michelle Kuo and Albert Wu, have a wonderful newsletter called A Broad and Ample Road and tackled the topic there as well: https://ampleroad.substack.com/p/on-pelosis-would-be-visit-to-taiwan
Anyone have any guesses on what the response will be from China? More sanctions? Bomb a city?
People are finally waking up to the fact that Russia has no interest in peaceful coexistence with the rest of the world, and it’s about time that people get more serious about China. Actually it’s long overdue. Hu Jintao’s “peaceful rise” phrase was a smokescreen to distract from the CCP’s real intentions, establishing a CCP-centered hegemony at any cost. Hopefully Pelosi’s visit is part of a well thought out, coordinated plan among the U.S. and allies. This may not result in more than fist shaking from China, but someday it’s going to get really nasty.
Don’t forget Mao’s famous thoughts about getting involved in nuclear war:
The CCP doesn’t put the same value on human life as most developed countries do. That makes the calculus of lethal escalations very different.
My guess: lots of bluster, maybe some sanctions. They know that any open aggression, up to and including a full-scale invasion of the island, is their final resort if things are spiraling out of their control. A visit by the highest-ranking member of Congress, while significant, is not on the same scale as, say, full diplomatic recognition.
China's hands are tied until they can get all their oil and natural gas by land. Right now an absolutely massive amount of their energy comes by sea through the Straight of Malacca. If China attacked Taiwan, the US would blockade the passageway and the country would have to resort to extreme gas and oil rationing within 90 days, likely sooner, all while trying to fuel a likely massive war effort in the South China Sea.