Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 16

ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and

Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.

Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

I have a feeling he's not going to hand himself in.

With Russia visit, Xi pursues effort to upend U.S.-led global order
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/16/xi-jinping-russia-new-world-order/
(try here if that link is paywalled)

@Fal, this article was just published this morning and is related to the one you posted yesterday, broadening the subject to include Xi's upcoming visit to Russia. This is not specifically focused on Russia/Ukraine, but I decided to post it here anyway to avoid flooding the main page with China news.

Fresh off a legislative congress where he cemented his vision for governing China, Xi Jinping turned to how he would create a better world order. It would be based on mutual respect, tolerance and equality — and China would be its natural leader

...

Newly empowered in his precedent-breaking third term, [Xi] is trying to counter what he sees as an American effort to contain Beijing by proposing an alternative global system that accommodates Chinese interests. Under Beijing’s leadership, he says, countries would not need to choose sides in a battle between autocracy and democracy.

While this goal has been pretty obvious to anyone watching China in recent years, and they have certainly been clear about the goal when speaking to audiences inside of China, there is now a big shift in making the goal explicit to external audiences as well.

A big question will be how many countries will get on board. The comments above were to a meeting including "Russia and South Africa, Nicaragua and East Timor". And clearly China is working hard to increase its sway in the Middle East. But after watching China sit on the sidelines as Russia has invaded Ukraine, unquestionably committing all sorts of war crimes in the process, I wonder how many other countries will believe that Chinese leadership will bring more peace to the world. An alternative conclusion that is easy to make would be that strong, imperialistic countries would have less pushback in taking over neighboring territories. However, it's tough for the US to make a solid counterargument based on its own recent track record, as the FP piece clearly argues.

For Xi, the [Russia/Ukraine peace] proposal along with his visit to Russia may be less about results and more about shoring up support among other countries that also feel left out of a U.S.-dominated international system.

“It’s important to understand it’s not just about Europe, Russia and the U.S., but also about all the other countries out there,” said Alicja Bachulska, a Warsaw-based policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “All these decisions and communications from Beijing are not only aimed at the so-called West but also the global south.”

I'm in the camp that Russia entered into Ukraine last February with China's full complicity, hoping that the invasion would hasten destabilization of the Western-led world order and would spark realignment around China. There will of course never be evidence to substantiate that, but I feel pretty comfortable that China's foreign policy actions can usefully be analyzed with the goal of realignment around China in mind now.

Russian defence minister decorates pilots for downing U.S. drone

Announcing the awards, the ministry repeated Russia's version of events - disputed by Washington - that the Russian planes did not make physical contact with the drone.

I guess that makes it clear where they stand on this.