17 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - August 10

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Tags: russia, ukraine, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

5 comments

  1. smoontjes
    Link
    Been waiting for this crossover for a while! Perun interviews Anders Puck Nielsen: Theories of Victory & Russian Political Stability

    Been waiting for this crossover for a while!

    Perun interviews Anders Puck Nielsen: Theories of Victory & Russian Political Stability

    Usually on my channel we focus on questions of defence economics - elements like national resources, production, stockpiles and logistics that feed into the ability of a nation to carry on a war.

    But I also try to always flag the importance of political and social elements as well - the ways in which politics and the will to fight can complicate what would otherwise be a largely mathematical exercise. While those factors are important however, Russian politics is not my area of academic or professional focus.

    Today I'm releasing an interview recorded with Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen at the Royal Danish Defence College. Anders has long had a focus on Russia and the Russian military, and so I was keen to get his thoughts on Russia's political and social divisions of power, attitudes towards the war, and how these might factor into Ukraine's theory of potential victory.

    00:00:00 — Theories Of Victory & Russian Political Stability
    00:01:54 — What Am I Are We Talking About?
    00:02:30 — Interviewing: Anders Puck Nielsen
    00:03:02 — The War From A Russian Perspective
    00:03:42 — Putin's War For Great Power Status
    00:07:15 — How Can This War Be Existential For Russia?
    00:09:21 — Does The War Undermine Russia's Power?
    00:16:37 — Kick The Can Down The Road
    00:23:17 — Limited But Existential
    00:25:46 — A Ukrainian Theory Of Victory
    00:26:55 — Ukrainian Resources
    00:28:07 — Ukrainian Goals
    00:29:47 — Taking Ground (The Hard Way)
    00:34:36 — The Political Dimension
    00:38:43 — The Russian Citizenry
    00:39:24 — Liberal And/or Anti-war Russians
    00:39:53 — Ultranationalists
    00:40:35 — The Depoliticised Middle
    00:43:31 — The Division Of Power
    00:43:38 — Political Parties & Politicians
    00:44:44 — The Technocrats
    00:45:22 — The Siloviki
    00:46:11 — Alliances & Relationships
    00:47:03 — Putin & The Vertical Of Power
    00:47:58 — Indications Of Destabilisation?
    00:48:58 — Elections And Fears
    00:52:58 — What Would A Breakdown Look Like
    00:54:48 — Signals Of Instability
    00:59:00 — What Can Ukraine Do?
    01:05:06 — Conclusion
    01:07:08 — Channel Update

    7 votes
  2. [2]
    unkz
    Link
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/14/russian-ruble-slumps-to-near-17-month-low-moves-past-100-against-the-dollar.html Sounds like sanctions are working. What can Russia realistically do about this? It...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/14/russian-ruble-slumps-to-near-17-month-low-moves-past-100-against-the-dollar.html

    Sounds like sanctions are working. What can Russia realistically do about this? It seems like it has been a steady, pretty much linear slide since June 24, 2022.

    6 votes
    1. misk
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      They can raise interest rates or use their reserves to temporarily prop up ruble. Raising interest rates means debt but it kicks can down the road. They did that at the beginning of the second...

      They can raise interest rates or use their reserves to temporarily prop up ruble.

      Raising interest rates means debt but it kicks can down the road. They did that at the beginning of the second invasion of Ukraine but have reverted once they had enough capital controls to stop the bleeding.

      It appears they went with central bank intervention for now. This burns their reserves but at the current rate it's enough for another year IIRC.

      [edit] They raised interest rates by a whopping 3.5%, now at 12%.

      4 votes