Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - September 21

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-will-send-ukraine-atacms-long-range-missiles-biden-tells-zelenskiy-nbc-2023-09-22/

It's officially confirmed by Biden now that ATACMS are being sent. 50 km greater range than Storm Shadow, and great news for Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-says-ukraine-struck-black-sea-navy-hq-with-missile-2023-09-22/

Ukraine attacked the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea navy in Sevastopol, Crimea on Friday. At least one Ukrainian missile struck the building, and air defences downed a total of five missiles. One Russian serviceman was reported missing after the attack. Ukraine confirmed it targeted the Russian fleet's headquarters but provided few details. The Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol said there was a fire but no civilian casualties.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023 - https://www.iswresearch.org/2023/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_23.html

Key Takeaways:

• ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces have not overcome all prepared Russian defensive positions near Verbove.
• Ukrainian forces are deepening their penetration in Zaporizhia Oblast and are assaulting Novoprokopivka – a frontline village 1.5 km immediately south of Robotyne.
• Ukrainian military officials stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would continue in the winter.
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast has likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet).
• A senior Ukrainian official explicitly confirmed that Ukraine’s objective in Bakhmut is to fix Russian forces. Ukraine’s fixing of Russian forces in Bakhmut may be alleviating pressure on the Kupyansk frontline.
• Ukraine’s simultaneous counteroffensives in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine are impeding Russia’s long-term force generation efforts as Russia redeploys its new reserves to defend against Ukrainian advances.
• A Ukrainian intelligence chief stated that the September 22 Ukrainian strike on the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Command headquarters in Sevastopol injured senior Russian commanders.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 22 to 23.
• Zaporizhia Oblast occupation governor Yevgeny Balitsky appointed former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin as a Russian Federation Council senator representing occupied Zaporizhia Oblast
• A Russian insider source argued that the Russian military should reintroduce military officers for political affairs (zampolits) to address the Russian military’s problems with political and ideological commitment– a problem that Russian military thinkers identified in September 2018.
• Disjointed Wagner Group contingents reportedly returning to fight in Ukraine are likely to have a marginal impact on Russian combat capabilities without bringing the full suite of effectiveness Wagner had had as a unitary organization under financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s and founder Dmitry Utkin’s leadership.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances on September 23.
• Russian authorities are reportedly embezzling funds from military facilities near the border of Ukraine.
• Russian government programs continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/abrams-tanks-arrive-ukraine-zelenskiy-2023-09-25/

Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S.-made Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday.

"Good news from Minister (of Defence Rustem) Umerov. Abrams are already in Ukraine and are being prepared to reinforce our brigades," he said on the Telegram messaging app.

A Ukrainian Drone Knocked Out A 70-Year-Old Russian Field Gun. It’s A Stark Reminder That Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery Battle. (Forbes)

Ukrainian forces have broken through in Verbove, top general says (CNN)

The general leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front line says his forces have broken through in Verbove – and predicts an even bigger breakthrough to come.

“On the left flank [near Verbove] we have a breakthrough and we continue to advance further,” Oleksandr Tarnavsky told CNN Senior International Correspondent Frederik Pleitgen during an interview on Friday, though he conceded his troops were moving slower than anticipated.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-killed-no-comment-by-moscow-2023-09-25/

KYIV, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Ukraine's Special Forces said on Monday that Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, had been killed in a Ukrainian attack last week on the fleet headquarters in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.