I'm a little outside of NZ politics (even though it's my home country). A swing back right after some time with a left wing government seems fairly normal though. Anything special about this case?
I'm a little outside of NZ politics (even though it's my home country). A swing back right after some time with a left wing government seems fairly normal though. Anything special about this case?
The outgoing left wing government has been the shortest of any government in recent history (since MMP) and this election is the biggest swing from the incumbent party (the left block has been...
The outgoing left wing government has been the shortest of any government in recent history (since MMP) and this election is the biggest swing from the incumbent party (the left block has been almost halved). And the new government is expected to be further to the right than is typical for New Zealand governments. I definitely see this as an abnormal reaction to the failure of the outgoing government.
From an outsider's point-of-view, it looks like the main issue is New Zealand just doesn't build enough housing, and the cost of living is rising rapidly. Does the new right-wing government have a...
From an outsider's point-of-view, it looks like the main issue is New Zealand just doesn't build enough housing, and the cost of living is rising rapidly.
Does the new right-wing government have a serious proposal to actually build more housing? From a quick glance, their platform seems to just be "we'll cut taxes and fix things, somehow!"
I don't think housing was the defining issue of the election. I doubt anybody trusts National to fix it, and under Labour house prices increased more than any other government ever. Nobody trusts...
I don't think housing was the defining issue of the election. I doubt anybody trusts National to fix it, and under Labour house prices increased more than any other government ever. Nobody trusts either party to solve it, so neither party campaigned on it.
The rate of increase did increase under Labour. I don't mean to say that this is necessary caused by the government, but they addressed it with too little too late
The rate of increase did increase under Labour. I don't mean to say that this is necessary caused by the government, but they addressed it with too little too late
Tbh I don't think they even tried. KiwiBuild sought to bring down prices by having the state be the middleman and contract builders directly. The problem was that it just increased demand for...
Tbh I don't think they even tried. KiwiBuild sought to bring down prices by having the state be the middleman and contract builders directly. The problem was that it just increased demand for existing builders without focusing (enough) on increasing building capacity and bringing down the cost of materials.
I would have liked to have gone one step further: put out a tender to build thousands of new houses using new, pre-fabrication housing factories. This doesn't increase strain on the existing building sector and standardises consent for common modules.
It's a pretty big blowback after the last election. Labour got enough support to form majority alone (but ended up in a coalition with Green anyway). Meanwhile National received only 25-ish...
It's a pretty big blowback after the last election. Labour got enough support to form majority alone (but ended up in a coalition with Green anyway). Meanwhile National received only 25-ish percent.
Last night Labour were the ones dwindling in the 20s, and National and Act were looking like they'd have a comfortable majority.
The unknown right now, with special votes still to be counted, is whether they'll need to bring in the populist NZ First party.
Either way it's a pretty stark reversal on the last election.
Well, it's the biggest swing because they got the biggest majority last time. Even if they don't end up needing NZ First, they're currently on 63 seats between National and Act, which is two more...
Well, it's the biggest swing because they got the biggest majority last time. Even if they don't end up needing NZ First, they're currently on 63 seats between National and Act, which is two more than the minimum. A good working majority, but not exactly an overwhelming mandate.
Although Natioanl doesn't have an overwhelming mandata, given NZ First campaigned on changing the government, I think it is fair to say that Labour had an overwhelming rejection.
Although Natioanl doesn't have an overwhelming mandata, given NZ First campaigned on changing the government, I think it is fair to say that Labour had an overwhelming rejection.
Nothing special really. Though the rhetoric and specific make up of these two parties are considered more conservative and further right than they were when governing from 2008-2017. Combined with...
Nothing special really.
Though the rhetoric and specific make up of these two parties are considered more conservative and further right than they were when governing from 2008-2017.
Combined with possibly needing a third party, more populist and nationalist party to achieve a majority of seats in the house, it's easily seen as even more conservative.
Labour's campaign was an abysmal failure. It sees to try to appeal to self interest (in it for you), which... just never works against the right. It didn't seem to want to run on its record...
Labour's campaign was an abysmal failure. It sees to try to appeal to self interest (in it for you), which... just never works against the right. It didn't seem to want to run on its record because it feared blowback and the association with the Jacinda era, but that was their biggest strength too, so they were running on nothing. They abandoned all climate and leftist policies in a race to the centre, which meant the Greens gobbled them up from the left too.
You just can't ever outcompete the right on selfish economic arguments, and I don't know why the left keeps trying this. You compete with the right on selflessness, on appealing to people's better instincts. And you don't always win, yeah, but at least you're fucking different.
Although very popular internationally, former Prime Minister Ardern is today widely hated locally outside of left wing circles.
After an election campaign of fits and starts, in which neither major party appeared to offer much solace to a weary nation, voters in New Zealand on Saturday ousted the party once led by Jacinda Ardern and elected the country’s most right-wing government in a generation, handing victory to a coalition of two conservative parties.
New Zealand’s next prime minister will be Christopher Luxon, a former chief executive of Air New Zealand, whose center-right National Party will lead a coalition with Act, a smaller libertarian party.
With most of the vote counted, support for the Labour Party, which won 50 percent of the vote in 2020, buoyed by the country’s strong response to the coronavirus pandemic, has collapsed to 27 percent.
Although very popular internationally, former Prime Minister Ardern is today widely hated locally outside of left wing circles.
I disagree with that sentiment. I agree that she's probably more popular internationally. And she's not as adored as she was, say, during the early COVID briefing days, and there is a very vocal...
I disagree with that sentiment.
I agree that she's probably more popular internationally. And she's not as adored as she was, say, during the early COVID briefing days, and there is a very vocal minority of hateful people. But I'd wager she's still looked at favourably by most New Zealanders.
That's not what I'm seeing. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election Polling prior to her departure still had her as preferred prime minister, at...
She had a plurality of the preferred prime minister polls, not a majority. On the same page you link, under government approval rating, at the time of her resignation her government was at -25%...
She had a plurality of the preferred prime minister polls, not a majority. On the same page you link, under government approval rating, at the time of her resignation her government was at -25% net approval.
All I'm saying is she isn't widely hated. That's a strong statement, and not one I think stacks up. And my feeling is still that her performance as preferred prime minister says more about her...
All I'm saying is she isn't widely hated. That's a strong statement, and not one I think stacks up.
And my feeling is still that her performance as preferred prime minister says more about her individual popularity than how people rate how her government performed. And again, all I'm trying to say here is that people don't hate her.
The previous Labour government having a majority under MMP was an anomaly, due to a number of outside factors. It's the only majority ever under MMP in NZ. There was no way Labour was going to...
The previous Labour government having a majority under MMP was an anomaly, due to a number of outside factors. It's the only majority ever under MMP in NZ.
There was no way Labour was going to keep a majority no matter what kind of campaign they ran. A correction was going to happen even if they ran an outstanding campaign (which they didn't). The numbers they received are consistent with historical numbers for a government that has been voted out in previous elections for both National and Labour.
It just looks worse because of the numbers of MP's they had in parliament from the 2020 election
I'm a little outside of NZ politics (even though it's my home country). A swing back right after some time with a left wing government seems fairly normal though. Anything special about this case?
The outgoing left wing government has been the shortest of any government in recent history (since MMP) and this election is the biggest swing from the incumbent party (the left block has been almost halved). And the new government is expected to be further to the right than is typical for New Zealand governments. I definitely see this as an abnormal reaction to the failure of the outgoing government.
From an outsider's point-of-view, it looks like the main issue is New Zealand just doesn't build enough housing, and the cost of living is rising rapidly.
Does the new right-wing government have a serious proposal to actually build more housing? From a quick glance, their platform seems to just be "we'll cut taxes and fix things, somehow!"
I don't think housing was the defining issue of the election. I doubt anybody trusts National to fix it, and under Labour house prices increased more than any other government ever. Nobody trusts either party to solve it, so neither party campaigned on it.
The rate of increase did increase under Labour. I don't mean to say that this is necessary caused by the government, but they addressed it with too little too late
Tbh I don't think they even tried. KiwiBuild sought to bring down prices by having the state be the middleman and contract builders directly. The problem was that it just increased demand for existing builders without focusing (enough) on increasing building capacity and bringing down the cost of materials.
I would have liked to have gone one step further: put out a tender to build thousands of new houses using new, pre-fabrication housing factories. This doesn't increase strain on the existing building sector and standardises consent for common modules.
It's a pretty big blowback after the last election. Labour got enough support to form majority alone (but ended up in a coalition with Green anyway). Meanwhile National received only 25-ish percent.
Last night Labour were the ones dwindling in the 20s, and National and Act were looking like they'd have a comfortable majority.
The unknown right now, with special votes still to be counted, is whether they'll need to bring in the populist NZ First party.
Either way it's a pretty stark reversal on the last election.
Well, it's the biggest swing because they got the biggest majority last time. Even if they don't end up needing NZ First, they're currently on 63 seats between National and Act, which is two more than the minimum. A good working majority, but not exactly an overwhelming mandate.
Although Natioanl doesn't have an overwhelming mandata, given NZ First campaigned on changing the government, I think it is fair to say that Labour had an overwhelming rejection.
Oh yeah, Labour got crushed. But not just from the right, also from the left. Labour's campaign was god awful.
Nothing special really.
Though the rhetoric and specific make up of these two parties are considered more conservative and further right than they were when governing from 2008-2017.
Combined with possibly needing a third party, more populist and nationalist party to achieve a majority of seats in the house, it's easily seen as even more conservative.
Labour's campaign was an abysmal failure. It sees to try to appeal to self interest (in it for you), which... just never works against the right. It didn't seem to want to run on its record because it feared blowback and the association with the Jacinda era, but that was their biggest strength too, so they were running on nothing. They abandoned all climate and leftist policies in a race to the centre, which meant the Greens gobbled them up from the left too.
You just can't ever outcompete the right on selfish economic arguments, and I don't know why the left keeps trying this. You compete with the right on selflessness, on appealing to people's better instincts. And you don't always win, yeah, but at least you're fucking different.
Although very popular internationally, former Prime Minister Ardern is today widely hated locally outside of left wing circles.
I disagree with that sentiment.
I agree that she's probably more popular internationally. And she's not as adored as she was, say, during the early COVID briefing days, and there is a very vocal minority of hateful people. But I'd wager she's still looked at favourably by most New Zealanders.
Polling showed her with netgative favourability and her party polled significantly better following her resignation.
That's not what I'm seeing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
Polling prior to her departure still had her as preferred prime minister, at 30 to 40 percent.
She had a plurality of the preferred prime minister polls, not a majority. On the same page you link, under government approval rating, at the time of her resignation her government was at -25% net approval.
All I'm saying is she isn't widely hated. That's a strong statement, and not one I think stacks up.
And my feeling is still that her performance as preferred prime minister says more about her individual popularity than how people rate how her government performed. And again, all I'm trying to say here is that people don't hate her.
The previous Labour government having a majority under MMP was an anomaly, due to a number of outside factors. It's the only majority ever under MMP in NZ.
There was no way Labour was going to keep a majority no matter what kind of campaign they ran. A correction was going to happen even if they ran an outstanding campaign (which they didn't). The numbers they received are consistent with historical numbers for a government that has been voted out in previous elections for both National and Labour.
It just looks worse because of the numbers of MP's they had in parliament from the 2020 election