15 votes

Brexit party may get more EU election votes than Tories and Labour combined

11 comments

  1. [4]
    Bullmaestro Link
    If the Brexit Party wins the EU elections, given the increased support for remaining in the EU and calls for a second referendum, I would be really shocked.

    If the Brexit Party wins the EU elections, given the increased support for remaining in the EU and calls for a second referendum, I would be really shocked.

    3 votes
    1. [3]
      TooFewColours Link Parent
      I think it'll almost certainly happen. Farage ducked out for all the mess and blame and popped back up with this new party in perfect timing to criticize and bring a new hope. Labour and the...

      I think it'll almost certainly happen. Farage ducked out for all the mess and blame and popped back up with this new party in perfect timing to criticize and bring a new hope. Labour and the Tories have pushed away supporters, and the Remain votes is split.

      With these polls, I think it's important to remember that people talk big on the phone. The Brexit Party is a protest vote, let's be real, but people tend to be more level headed when the fresh air hits them on the way the to polling booth.

      Then again - this whole EU election is an odd ball. It could have political implications, but it might not. It could be a second refferendum in disguise, but it might not. Anyone going out to vote will be making a statement, and I think that's really exciting.

      4 votes
      1. [2]
        Bullmaestro Link Parent
        In the last EU election UKIP won by a landslide. Their success didn't necessarily translate to the 2015 General Election though. They had around 12% of the popular vote and their 4 million votes...

        In the last EU election UKIP won by a landslide. Their success didn't necessarily translate to the 2015 General Election though. They had around 12% of the popular vote and their 4 million votes only earned them one seat. That's FPTP for you though.

        I can only see the Brexit Party gaining a foothold if the Tories call a snap GE and lose enough of the popular vote that they begin haemorrhaging seats.

        2 votes
        1. alyaza Link Parent
          that's overselling their successes significantly. they did quite well in 2014 in the UK, but their margin over labour was only 2% (and only 3% over the tories) and voters swung toward labour just...

          In the last EU election UKIP won by a landslide.

          that's overselling their successes significantly. they did quite well in 2014 in the UK, but their margin over labour was only 2% (and only 3% over the tories) and voters swung toward labour just as much as they did toward UKIP. also, since elections in the EU aren't FPTP this meant they ultimately won only 4 more seats than labour did out of 73. this poll also seems to be only one possibility, as there's another one here suggesting basically 2014 results but with the tory vote DoA (and obviously, the brexit party replacing UKIP):

          @ComRes, 09 May, Changes. w/ 07 May

          BREX: 27% (-1)
          LAB: 25% (-1)
          LDEM: 14% (+3)
          CON: 13% (-1)
          GRN: 8% (+2)
          CHUK: 6% (-2)
          UKIP: 3% (+1)

          7 votes
  2. [7]
    moriarty Link
    Sorry for a simpleton's question, but can someone explain to a non-European the meaning of EU elections results and the impact in internal UK politics? Also, how are coalitions formed in such case?

    Sorry for a simpleton's question, but can someone explain to a non-European the meaning of EU elections results and the impact in internal UK politics? Also, how are coalitions formed in such case?

    1 vote
    1. [4]
      Greg Link Parent
      The other two replies are quite right - I just wanted to add that this particular one is an especially unusual case because of the whole Brexit mess. By the original schedule, the UK would have...

      The other two replies are quite right - I just wanted to add that this particular one is an especially unusual case because of the whole Brexit mess. By the original schedule, the UK would have left the EU already, so this election wouldn't have happened at all; one of the stipulations when the EU granted the delay requested by the UK parliament, which placed the new exit date after the election date, is that the UK would take part in the election (understandable, in my opinion, because failing to do so would put the UK even further into a "sort of left the EU but not quite" limbo rather than a clear cut in/out).

      Because the scheduled course of events is still that the UK is leaving the EU, it means there's a high chance that whoever is elected here will then be removed in a few months when the UK loses its seats. As such, it's being treated even more than usual as a throwaway protest vote - and very specifically as a proxy vote on Brexit itself (as the government has continually refused to allow a confirmatory referendum on the terms the UK would be leaving under).

      Since almost everyone has a strong opinion one way or the other on this, and both of the mainstream parties (Conservative and Labour) have been criticised heavily by both sides for their stances on Brexit, there's a reasonable chance of Farage's single-issue Brexit party getting a non-trivial number of votes on the leave side. Similarly, the Liberal Democrats (who were almost wiped out in the last UK general election) and Greens are likely to pick up a lot of remain voters.

      5 votes
      1. [3]
        moriarty Link Parent
        Thanks for the addendum. I think I'm getting the picture here. I'm a little confused by this and by what was said in the article. How does electing this party force the government's hand in...

        Thanks for the addendum. I think I'm getting the picture here.

        and very specifically as a proxy vote on Brexit itself (as the government has continually refused to allow a confirmatory referendum on the terms the UK would be leaving under)

        I'm a little confused by this and by what was said in the article. How does electing this party force the government's hand in allowing a second referendum? If anything, I'd think it does quite the opposite.

        2 votes
        1. Greg Link Parent
          It doesn't force anything, but a landslide in either direction will increase public pressure on the government: if it goes towards the Brexit party then the idea of a second referendum absolutely...

          It doesn't force anything, but a landslide in either direction will increase public pressure on the government: if it goes towards the Brexit party then the idea of a second referendum absolutely becomes less politically viable, and the small core of hard-Brexit Conservatives will likely make use of the "will of the people" argument to pressure their more moderate colleagues.

          If it goes strongly the other way, towards Green & Lib Dem, then the pressure on an already deadlocked Conservative government to accept a public vote on the terms becomes much stronger, and the Labour party will be emboldened to double down on their so far fairly weak demands for that to happen.

          The reporting is going to end up with a lot of spin, though. There's a reasonable chance of the Brexit party, as a clear single-issue option, taking a disproportionate single chunk of the vote while the remain vote may be significantly larger in aggregate but split among several parties.

          I'm expecting a fairly large swing away from both mainstream parties, but more significant overall gains on the remain side. Part of that is definitely optimism on my side, but it's also borne out by demographic shift over the few years since the referendum, and by the scale of pro-EU protests and public engagement vs anti-EU.

          4 votes
        2. EightRoundsRapid Link Parent
          It won't, it'd be a massive reinforcement of the "leave" result of the referendum. And the govt won't easily be able to ignore that message.

          It won't, it'd be a massive reinforcement of the "leave" result of the referendum. And the govt won't easily be able to ignore that message.

          1 vote
    2. EightRoundsRapid Link Parent
      MEPs (member of the European Parliament) are a countries representative. They supposedly reflect a nations stance towards EU directions and policies. Unfortunately here in the UK we have...

      MEPs (member of the European Parliament) are a countries representative. They supposedly reflect a nations stance towards EU directions and policies. Unfortunately here in the UK we have traditionally used these elections as a protest vote against the current govt. And electing anti-EU people to the parliament sends a strong message that we as a country neither value nor respect the aims and ideals of the union.

      A big win for Farages latest vehicle will be a huge kick to the incumbent UK party to hurry up and finalise our exit from the EU.

      Ed: forgot link. MEPs join groups, rather than coalitions

      http://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups

      3 votes
    3. nothis Link Parent
      Can't comment on the impact on Brexit negotiations but generally, EU law is a big deal. It's only one step below a member state's constitution, basically forcing states to rewrite their own laws...

      Can't comment on the impact on Brexit negotiations but generally, EU law is a big deal. It's only one step below a member state's constitution, basically forcing states to rewrite their own laws to match EU directives. It always seems very bureaucratic and far away and honestly, I didn't ever vote in an EU election. But then you get shit like Article 13.

      3 votes