11 votes

Ukraine strikes Russia's oil refineries - the effects, politics and what next?

2 comments

  1. l_one
    Link
    Sorry, no proper links in the description yet, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links. ... By popular vote, let's...

    Sorry, no proper links in the description yet, too much on my to-do list. Description from Perun below, view page on YouTube to be able to click on the source links.

    ...

    By popular vote, let's talk Russian oil refineries, what makes the strikes this August different to past Ukrainian efforts, and also what might still be missing from Ukraine's ability to maximise the impact on Russia's economy and willingness to negotiate.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing (WIP):

    US Strategic Bombing Survey Oil Division final report (1947)
    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?i...

    RAND - Air power as a coercive instrument (1999)
    https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand...

    Russian oil firm net incomes from:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

    Reuters 17% figure:
    https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

    idle capacity figure:
    https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

    Sample of attack reporting
    https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/23/eu...

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/20...

    https://militarnyi.com/en/news/drones...

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...

    https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrain...

    https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/donal...

    Ust-Luga
    https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

    Zelensky's "friendship" comments
    • Заява Володимира Зеленського після зустріч...

    Reporting on the Druzhba attacks & fallout
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58968

    https://www.intellinews.com/russian-o...

    Sergey Vakulenko - What is the Real Cost and Benefit of Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Refining? (2024)
    https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-...

    Reporting Russian refining (2024)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

    Alabuga
    https://www.reuters.com/business/medi...

    https://t.me/istories_media/9999

    Albright & Fargasso on Alabuga
    https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/...

    U.S. approves ERAM sale
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...

    Post-Alaska negotiations/comments:
    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/r...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2...

    Reuters on MOL head statements
    https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

    Caveats & Comments:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:00:48 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:03:07 — Ukraine's Strategic Imperative
    00:08:06 — Why Oil and Gas?
    00:17:30 — Strikes So Far
    00:31:41 — Estimating Impacts
    00:39:55 — 2024
    00:44:27 — the WW2 Precedent
    00:50:44 — Missing Pieces
    00:55:09 — Defender Lessons
    00:59:17 — Conclusion
    01:01:13 — Channel Update

    2 votes
  2. redbearsam
    Link
    I still can't really see any route out of this quagmire.

    I still can't really see any route out of this quagmire.