redbearsam's recent activity

  1. Comment on Sheriff broke law by seizing 650,000 ballots, California Supreme Court rules in ~society

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    But he's... He's the sheriff? Then again look at the disregard for the court order about allowing news orgs into the Whitehouse. America is a lawless land man. How did it come to this.

    But he's... He's the sheriff? Then again look at the disregard for the court order about allowing news orgs into the Whitehouse.

    America is a lawless land man. How did it come to this.

    8 votes

  2. Comment on Ex-oil engineer turned climate whistleblower: We face collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Kevin Anderson in ~enviro

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    I imagine the zeitgeist may have gone by now, so no worries if you've moved on with your life and can't be arsed responding! Regarding the first quote and associated critique - about "the...
    • Exemplary

    I imagine the zeitgeist may have gone by now, so no worries if you've moved on with your life and can't be arsed responding!

    Regarding the first quote and associated critique - about "the conversation is happening, he's having it now": I guess I don't agree that his point of view is being generally discussed widely in the places that matter, for example in the mainstream of the news. He's talking about radical change, whilst - in the UK at least - the most prescient climate conversation is "do we give out more licenses to drill for oil in the North Sea". That's a million miles away from serious action of the sort he deems necessary.

    I'd say he's saying that the conversation that will get us where we need to be is way out of focus, and that that needs to change. And he himself is strongly advocating for that, not giving up in any sense I wouldn't say.

    Regarding whether he's exaggerating - perhaps even to the point of lying - I wouldn't agree with that. He's:

    1. looking at agreed targets, and saying we've totally missed them.
    2. looking at consequences of likely trajectories and saying that they're devastating.
    3. saying that he thinks society - by which he means I suppose the halls of power, be they elected or whatever - is not taking sufficient action to address the extremity of those consequences.

    I'd say the key point he's getting across is something akin to: "yes we've done a lot (for example 1% to 20% solar) but that's not enough, especially when the people who'll feel the consequences the worst aren't we - in largely 'The West' - who've caused and continue to cause the problem and are getting all the benefit. Having done 'a lot' won't un-drown the pacific islands, or un-kill the victim of the drought in an impoverished part of Bangladesh."

    Regarding reform - I think he's being careful not to vilify people for having differing concerns. He wants to bring them along; get them onside. He's saying: the way I see this being solved is actually a net benefit for you. The status quo isn't serving you.

    3 votes

  3. Comment on Ex-oil engineer turned climate whistleblower: We face collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Kevin Anderson in ~enviro

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    No slight taken at all, thanks for engaging with the post! Just skimmed a bit, as I'm entertaining this evening, but I'll come back to give your post it's due consideration tomorrow. (My skim read...

    No slight taken at all, thanks for engaging with the post! Just skimmed a bit, as I'm entertaining this evening, but I'll come back to give your post it's due consideration tomorrow.

    (My skim read suggests you've raised interesting discussion points! Again thanks.)

    1 vote

  4. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    I suppose it depends on what one considers to be a reasonable risk to take vis-á-vis temperature limits. 2 degrees sounds bad to me, and already far too destructive to happily countenance. But 3...

    I suppose it depends on what one considers to be a reasonable risk to take vis-á-vis temperature limits. 2 degrees sounds bad to me, and already far too destructive to happily countenance. But 3 is - in these terms - significantly more dangerous. Not least because of the greater chance of going through a tipping point, which then can have vastly greater negative knock-on effects.

    So I think it does make a difference, in the sense that if we believe that we're on the trajectory to 2, some people might think we're doing enough. If we're on track for 3, those same people might have a greater sense of urgency.

    4 votes

  5. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I'm not sure the article linked supports the 2-2.2 degrees part of that hypothesis. I've quoted the relevant parts of the article (emphasis mine): And then further on:

    I'm not sure the article linked supports the 2-2.2 degrees part of that hypothesis. I've quoted the relevant parts of the article (emphasis mine):

    ... but now scientists say that even their best case scenario still shoots past that signature temperature mark. On the other end, those same new scenarios no longer include the coal-heavy future that would lead to 4.5 degrees Celsius (8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming by 2100, a scary scenario that many scientific studies used in their future projections.

    The new proposed worst case scenario has an end-of-the-century warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit), a full degree (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) less than the old scenario, while the updated best case future is a couple tenths of a degree Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than previously theorized, squeezing past the Paris goal, said climate scientist Detlef Van Vuuren of Utrecht University, lead author of a recent study laying out future scenarios.

    The scenarios include a “middle” one where by the end of the century the world warms 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, which is roughly the path society is currently on, scientists said.

    And then further on:

    While the upward curve of emissions is flattening, there’s a factor that could still make the older high end temperature estimates come true, Mahowald, Rockstrom and Hare said. That’s because the newest batch of scenarios only look at emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which is the control knob that humans can turn.

    Nature has another knob of its own referred to as climate feedbacks, which humans don’t control. Scientists have had a hard time projecting climate feedbacks, and that can add another half a degree Celsius (nearly a degree Fahrenheit) of warming on top of what’s caused by emissions.

    Those feedbacks include release of massive amounts of heat-trapping carbon now being stored in the world’s oceans, in forested areas and in the Amazon, along with changes to ocean currents and cloud reflectivity, Rockstrom said.

    3 votes

  6. Comment on Ex-oil engineer turned climate whistleblower: We face collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Kevin Anderson in ~enviro

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    That's a fair analysis in some ways, however I don't think Novara or the interviewees' intent nor message is doomerism. I'd fear your friend has taken the wrong conclusion from that interview...

    That's a fair analysis in some ways, however I don't think Novara or the interviewees' intent nor message is doomerism. I'd fear your friend has taken the wrong conclusion from that interview (which was posted maybe a week after this one, and was similar in tone).

    I thought this one was somewhat superior, and as you say this one was not related to a book release so the motivation is more pure. In fact I think it telling that this fella is so committed that he has deliberately reduced his professorial hours for which he's paid down to what he considers an appropriate share of societal resources. He's practicing what he preaches.

    I think the message is not "we're doomed" but rather "we're doomed if we do not take decisive action" which is a very different proposition indeed.

    2 votes

  7. Comment on Ex-oil engineer turned climate whistleblower: We face collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Kevin Anderson in ~enviro

    redbearsam
    Link
    Given discussion in another thread I thought I'd post this video about the climate crisis. The video is long but, for me at least, I found it a gripping watch. Kevin Anderson immediately promoted...

    Given discussion in another thread I thought I'd post this video about the climate crisis. The video is long but, for me at least, I found it a gripping watch. Kevin Anderson immediately promoted to personal hero.

    The man has been working in the field a long time, starting on one side of the process, and now an academic on the other side of it. He's bizarrely optimistic in a lot of ways, but also very realistic in terms of what he assesses to be necessary to beat this thing.

    7 votes

  9. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    I should say, I'm not hopeless. As you can no doubt tell, I'm an ardent green party member and I believe there's a small chance we can thread this needle and stay below the most catastrophic...

    I should say, I'm not hopeless.

    As you can no doubt tell, I'm an ardent green party member and I believe there's a small chance we can thread this needle and stay below the most catastrophic heating. This assumes that politically the climate crisis starts being addressed seriously and soon. The reason I care to engage with this at all is that I think it's soluble.

    But it will require a probably unprecedented effort, on a global scale. And things will get worse before they get better even if the whole planet buys in. We've just left it all a bit late.

    3 votes

  10. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    Well that's fair. But if we have a track record of being unable to muster the political will to do something, then I think it's fair to suggest that it isn't a solution we can rely on?

    Well that's fair. But if we have a track record of being unable to muster the political will to do something, then I think it's fair to suggest that it isn't a solution we can rely on?

    5 votes

  11. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    We're failing versus the targets agreed in, say, Paris. I'd say blowing through targets to stay below 1.5 and almost certainly now 2degrees - which were set owing to the catastrophic consequences...

    We're failing versus the targets agreed in, say, Paris. I'd say blowing through targets to stay below 1.5 and almost certainly now 2degrees - which were set owing to the catastrophic consequences that such heating entails - could be regarded as failing.

    Acceleration is slowing, but we set a reduction goal, and globally we failed to meet it, so I would summarise that as failure.

    We're just beginning to see the early effects from that and they are not good. People have already suffered and died for this failure, and this is a cumulative problem with significant drag in terms of cause and effect, so things are going to get worse. And projections assuming current trends (IE we're not even just adding to greenhouse gasses at the already staggering rate, but rather still adding year-on-year more greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere every year, accelerating the speed of heating) suggest a lot worse.

    7 votes

  12. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    That's true for sure. My understanding is that besides your point about intent, removing carbon from the air at scale is very resource intensive - more taxing than just reducing emissions, which...

    That's true for sure. My understanding is that besides your point about intent, removing carbon from the air at scale is very resource intensive - more taxing than just reducing emissions, which we're already failing at. If it were really feasible, it would already be happening no?

    8 votes

  13. Comment on Homes on stilts built above parking lots ('Hope Rise', Bristol) in ~design

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    As a Bristol person, I'm both tickled to see this news here on Tildes, and glad to see it at all 🚀

    As a Bristol person, I'm both tickled to see this news here on Tildes, and glad to see it at all 🚀

    4 votes

  14. Comment on Deciding whether (or not) to have a child in ~life

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    The difference there between climate change and the nuclear doomsday scenario is that one was always a maybe, whilst the other is a foregone conclusion. It's a cumulative effect problem wherein a...

    The difference there between climate change and the nuclear doomsday scenario is that one was always a maybe, whilst the other is a foregone conclusion. It's a cumulative effect problem wherein a number of effects are already locked in. We've not even hit peak emissions yet, somewhat unbelievably. We're still accelerating!

    The only remaining maybes are whether we can get a handle on this thing and prevent the various non-linearities (for example the oceans becoming a carbon source instead of sink). Profound suffering has already been locked in by human action/inaction. The extent is now the question.

    12 votes

  15. Comment on UN says world will miss its climate target, warming must be reversed in ~enviro

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    Also, they've peaked - per capita - very high indeed. Even now 3 times the global average and vastly higher than most peer nations.

    Also, they've peaked - per capita - very high indeed. Even now 3 times the global average and vastly higher than most peer nations.

    13 votes

  16. Comment on Compact phone in the works for the fans of small phones in ~tech

    redbearsam
    Link
    Almost a shame I just picked up a pixel 10a. The biggest annoyance is how much bigger it is than my 5a. But this looks super promising to me. Definitely gonna follow it. Thanks for the heads up!

    Almost a shame I just picked up a pixel 10a. The biggest annoyance is how much bigger it is than my 5a. But this looks super promising to me. Definitely gonna follow it. Thanks for the heads up!

    5 votes

  17. Comment on UEFA agrees to boycott FIFA competitions if World Cup sell-off plans proceed in ~sports.football

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    *Financially successful. In other ways it was disastrous. And as a "non-profit" that metric oughtn't to be their north star. It keeps happening and it keeps being to the detriment of the game (and...

    *Financially successful. In other ways it was disastrous.

    And as a "non-profit" that metric oughtn't to be their north star. It keeps happening and it keeps being to the detriment of the game (and sometimes, humanity - see Qatari slave labourers).

    1 vote

  18. Comment on JAECOO 7 becomes the UK’s best-selling car in 2026 after hitting number one spot in March in ~transport

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    Right? "I value my safety to the exclusion of all others."

    Right? "I value my safety to the exclusion of all others."

    1 vote

  19. Comment on What’s a must-buy item you get when traveling internationally? in ~travel

  20. Comment on Atari makes Universal movie deal for ten iconic game properties in ~movies

    redbearsam
    Link Parent
    The missile command idea is actually great. I'd watch that.

    The missile command idea is actually great. I'd watch that.

    1 vote