This is a fictional scenario about how AI advances might play out. The early part (before the choose-your-own-adventure split between "slowdown" and "race") seems fairly plausible to me, though I...
This is a fictional scenario about how AI advances might play out. The early part (before the choose-your-own-adventure split between "slowdown" and "race") seems fairly plausible to me, though I continue to believe that the future can't be accurately predicted.
They acknowledge this themselves:
We have set ourselves an impossible task. Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies. Yet it is still valuable to attempt, just as it is valuable for the US military to game out Taiwan scenarios.
Painting the whole picture makes us notice important questions or connections we hadn’t considered or appreciated before, or realize that a possibility is more or less likely. Moreover, by sticking our necks out with concrete predictions, and encouraging others to publicly state their disagreements, we make it possible to evaluate years later who was right.
Here's a transcript of a podcast where they explain what they're doing.
This is a fictional scenario about how AI advances might play out. The early part (before the choose-your-own-adventure split between "slowdown" and "race") seems fairly plausible to me, though I continue to believe that the future can't be accurately predicted.
They acknowledge this themselves:
Here's a transcript of a podcast where they explain what they're doing.