According to Goble, the problem is no longer limited to procurement. It is now feeding directly into safety concerns and the wider functioning of the Russian economy.
“I don't think there are very many planes in the air today in Russia that don't have parts taken from another plane that isn't flying anymore,” he said. While he noted that the available evidence is largely anecdotal, he said analysts of the sector have pointed consistently to the same pattern.
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Goble said the consequences could be especially severe in a country as vast as Russia, where many regions remain poorly connected by rail or road.
“You simply can't drive from one part of the country to another. You can't take a train because there are no tracks,” he said, arguing that air travel is not a luxury in much of Russia but a basic link holding together remote regions and local economies.
That is why, he said, the aviation crunch should be seen not as a narrow sectoral setback but as a wider strategic problem. Canceled flights, fewer connections and rising safety concerns could all weigh on mobility, logistics and state control in far-flung parts of the country.
[In January], Russia’s Izvestia news outlet reported that Russia plans to reactivate retired Soviet-design aircraft in 2026. These include Tu-204-214s, an An-148, Il-96s, and more Boeing 747-400s.
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In total, Russia has been refurbishing 12 retired airliners, including nine Tu-204-214s, one An-148, and two Il-96s. These aircraft are up to 30 years old, and work has been ongoing since 2022.
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The two widebody, quad-engined Ilyushin Il-96s are particularly interesting. Cuba’s Cubana de Aviación is the only airline to use them in commercial passenger service. In Russia, they are exclusively used by the Russian government and for cargo transportation.
Russia is also rushing to Rusify the production of its commercial aircraft. While progress is being made, none have been delivered by the end of 2025, and only two flagship Yakovlev MC-21 airliners are expected to be delivered in 2026.
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In 2025, Russia saw a slight decline in passenger traffic, according to Izvestia. It seems more than a ‘slight decline’ with Kommersant reporting it is, “a 20% year-on-year decline in passenger traffic for Russian airlines.”
This was attributed to a reduction in Russia’s fleet size. By 2030, 230 Russian-made and 109 foreign-made aircraft are expected to retire across Russia.
Currently, Russian airlines are operating 100% of their serviceable fleet. However, the aircraft are being decommissioned at a rate of 2-3% annually with no new replacements since 2022. This means that foreign carriers are taking more and more of the long-haul Russian tourist market.
This rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too: Russia’s Shadow Airlift: How the Kremlin Weaponised Commercial Aviation ...
This rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too:
Our previous “Maintained to Fail” investigation into Aviaremont JSC documented how Russia’s military aviation maintenance backbone is collapsing due to sanctions and absent spare parts. With the ever growing number of military aircraft requiring repairs and overhaul facilities effectively insolvent, the Russian Aerospace Forces are experiencing a genuine airlift capacity crisis – not just a maintenance inconvenience. That crisis leaves a gap. Russia’s military needs to move troops, weapons, and materiel. Its own aircraft increasingly cannot. So it is turning to the next most available option: civilian aviation.
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Why does the Ministry of Defence maintain aircraft on the civilian registry when it already commands a Military Transport Aviation fleet of roughly 400 to 450 dedicated military airframes? Aside from the poor operational readiness of the official fleet, the main strategic hurdle is international access. While Russian military aircraft face no procedural or logistical barriers landing at domestic civilian or joint-use airports within Russia, crossing sovereign borders is an entirely different matter. Under international aviation law, true military aircraft require complex, easily trackable diplomatic clearances to enter foreign airspace and are routinely barred from international commercial hubs. By placing a portion of its fleet on the civil registry and painting them in standard commercial liveries, the Ministry of Defence exploits civil aviation protocols. This allows them to bypass diplomatic red tape and fly into crucial transit nodes like the UAE, Turkey, or various African states under the guise of ‘civilian charter flights’.
Also: Flying on borrowed parts: Sanctions deepen Russia’s aviation crisis
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From the article:
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This rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too:
Russia’s Shadow Airlift: How the Kremlin Weaponised Commercial Aviation
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