BitsMcBytes's recent activity

  1. Comment on How Bluesky, the rival of Elon Musk’s X, is seizing the moment in ~tech

    BitsMcBytes
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    In theory this is meant to be possible as Bluesky was meant to be decentralized but not sure how much they've opened things up in practice. Fun fact, one of the core creators of Bluesky (Paul) is...

    In theory this is meant to be possible as Bluesky was meant to be decentralized but not sure how much they've opened things up in practice.

    Fun fact, one of the core creators of Bluesky (Paul) is also the creator of Fritter.
    https://github.com/beakerbrowser/fritter

    6 votes

  2. Comment on Who's watching crypto at the moment? in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
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    My advice is to think of crypto as an expression of macro economics that intersects with technology and culture. The price action on an expanded time horizon tends to be a barometer of global...

    My advice is to think of crypto as an expression of macro economics that intersects with technology and culture. The price action on an expanded time horizon tends to be a barometer of global liquidity. What was the macro economic backdrop when it peaked around $880 for you? I'm betting there was a significant amount of M2 money supply expansion and stimulus happening. On a shorter time horizon, the price actions is more on attention, which could be a mix of what the current cultural phenomenon is and what experience the underlying technology gives. Over the past few days your DOGE has been outperforming your XRP and your ETH. And all year your ETH underperformed SOL. What does this mean?

    3 votes

  3. Comment on Elon Musk wins Tesla shareholder vote for $56 billion pay package in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    Thing is, experts thought it was impossible to 10x: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/business/dealbook/tesla-elon-musk-pay.html My feeling is that if a bet is made in which experts (whoever they...

    Thing is, experts thought it was impossible to 10x:

    If Mr. Musk were somehow to increase the value of Tesla to $650 billion--a figure many experts would contend is laughably impossible and would make Tesla one of the five largest companies in the United States, based on current valuations--his stock award could be worth as much as $55 billion.

    My feeling is that if a bet is made in which experts (whoever they are) think its impossible, it should have an asymmetric upside in the case that the impossible is done... otherwise whats the point of making that deal.

    12 votes

  4. Comment on Elon Musk threatens to ban iPhones and MacBooks at his companies after Apple announces OpenAI partnership in ~tech

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    So Apple basically launched a blockchain to verify PCC events.

    Our commitment to verifiable transparency includes:
    Publishing the measurements of all code running on PCC in an append-only and cryptographically tamper-proof transparency log.
    Making the log and associated binary software images publicly available for inspection and validation by privacy and security experts.
    Publishing and maintaining an official set of tools for researchers analyzing PCC node software.
    Rewarding important research findings through the Apple Security Bounty program.

    So Apple basically launched a blockchain to verify PCC events.

    1 vote

  5. Comment on Luke Gromen: Why you should prepare for a massive economic shift in ~finance

  6. Comment on Luke Gromen: Why you should prepare for a massive economic shift in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    Not a huge fan of Bankless personally. I think of a lot of their takes on the topic of blockchains are wildly incorrect, particularly with anything outside of Ethereum. But Luke Gromen has been...

    Not a huge fan of Bankless personally. I think of a lot of their takes on the topic of blockchains are wildly incorrect, particularly with anything outside of Ethereum. But Luke Gromen has been spot on with his macroeconomic analysis the past few years.

  7. Comment on Luke Gromen: Why you should prepare for a massive economic shift in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    Link
    Luke Gromen discussing energy as a currency base layer.

    Luke Gromen discussing energy as a currency base layer.

  9. Comment on Do you think climate crisis will lead to violent activism? in ~enviro

  10. Comment on Do you think climate crisis will lead to violent activism? in ~enviro

    BitsMcBytes
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    My doubt is in quick drastic actions, such as linked above, the removal of sulfur fuel from cargo ships that directly led to ocean warming faster due to decreased albedo. Good intentions with bad...

    My doubt is in quick drastic actions, such as linked above, the removal of sulfur fuel from cargo ships that directly led to ocean warming faster due to decreased albedo. Good intentions with bad outcomes.

    The fix to that issue is incremental building, adding something else to fuel to re-increase albedo (such as sea salt, which is readily available in the water.)

  11. Comment on Do you think climate crisis will lead to violent activism? in ~enviro

    BitsMcBytes
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    I think that it's possible. However, I don't think it is good. My theory is that promoting the idea that collapse is somehow impossible to mitigate or that we are on an irreversible track towards...

    I think that it's possible. However, I don't think it is good.

    My theory is that promoting the idea that collapse is somehow impossible to mitigate or that we are on an irreversible track towards doom, and that things will only be worse in the future unless there is fighting, is bad, especially for young people, and it is normalizing an attitude zero-sum behavior. It prevents effective social, political, and economic change from really happening because people become convinced they don't have the agency to build a better world, only that they can destroy what is around them that they don't like.

    Solar geoengineering, weather engineering, net-zero carbon cycle, etc are all actionable paths that one can go down to increase probabilities of easing our collective eco-anxiety, and there are people on the frontlines of this. For instance, look at what Rainmaker is doing to fix droughts with cloudseeding, what Terraform Industries is doing to make cheap nat gas from air and sunlight, what OceanBit is doing with ocean thermal energy conversion and ouroborosesque heat reintegration.

    It's always easier to tear down than it is to build up. But I think the better future is in building vs in fighting. And when we fight, we tend to lose track of (or dismiss) 2nd and 3rd order consequences.

    For instance, oceans got warmer over the past few years after we regulated out polluting sulfur fuel from cargo ships, because the sulfates in the air were reflecting the sun light and keeping the water cool. It turns out atmospheric SO2 is extremely effective at increasing albedo, which reduces surface and sea temperatures! The outcomes of this termination shock were discussed by people in climate forums well beforehand, but it was largely dismissed (and even at times, attributed as bad faith and malice) by the wider community, a dissonance of the 2nd and 3rd order effects occurred. My fear is that the climate is a complex system, and fighting is counterproductive to mitigations. Building is productive.
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/

    1 vote

  12. Comment on What's next for Kagi? in ~tech

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    I had a similar question. Another thing is... private companies can agree with their investors to offer zero information rights... effectively "we don't have to tell you anything" (as much as...

    I had a similar question. Another thing is... private companies can agree with their investors to offer zero information rights... effectively "we don't have to tell you anything" (as much as tv/media makes it sound like VCs gain control of a company, at least a couple companies not granting any information rights is pretty common in a given VC portfolio.)

    So my question is... what is the main benefit of being a PBC over just not giving your investors info rights? It sounds like being a PBC just means you don't have to go through the headache of explaining unsound financial moves to investors... but similarly if you don't offer information rights, you wouldn't have to do that anyways (and probably even have fewer transparency requirements?)

    3 votes

  13. Comment on PayPal USD (PYUSD) on Solana in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    There's a lot going on within Solana to try to attract enterprise companies. Big corps do have teams internally that discuss using crypto, but historically there have been some set of key features...

    There's a lot going on within Solana to try to attract enterprise companies. Big corps do have teams internally that discuss using crypto, but historically there have been some set of key features lacking that make them shelf the efforts. Recent advancements like Token Extensions (the feature PayPal is using for PYUSD) come out of business development conversations with these companies to figure out what is needed to onboard them to this tech.

    1 vote

  14. Comment on PayPal USD (PYUSD) on Solana in ~finance

  15. Comment on PayPal USD (PYUSD) on Solana in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
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    PayPal announced the launch of PYUSD on Solana today. Some interesting notable features such as confidential transfers and transfer hooks (allows calling specific programs with each token...

    PayPal announced the launch of PYUSD on Solana today. Some interesting notable features such as confidential transfers and transfer hooks (allows calling specific programs with each token transfer.)

    Announcement post: https://pyusd.mirror.xyz/TpEwPNybrwzPSSQenLtO4kggy98KH4oQRc06ggVnA0k
    White paper: https://www.paypalobjects.com/devdoc/community/PYUSD-Solana-White-Paper.pdf
    Developer Docs: https://developer.paypal.com/community/blog/pyusd-quick-start-guide/

  17. Comment on Wisconsin pension fund now includes bitcoin in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    What is the heuristic you use to trust something?

    What is the heuristic you use to trust something?

  18. Comment on Wisconsin pension fund now includes bitcoin in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I have some examples, though I will say, once someone has made up their mind that there are no interesting projects, it's very difficult to convince them otherwise, because interesting is...

    I have some examples, though I will say, once someone has made up their mind that there are no interesting projects, it's very difficult to convince them otherwise, because interesting is subjective.

    But anyways, here is a list:

    • TRIP (The Ride Sharing Protocol)
    • Helium (crypto incentivized mesh-networking, helps backbone Helium Mobile cell network)
    • Dria (Decentralized Hugging Face (machine learning model sharing etc))
    • Cube (Centralized-Decentralized exchange hybrid. Trade order matching happens on centralized servers for speed, but users funds are always in accounts they have custody of onchain, the company can never steal your funds, and you can always verify your funds are there (they call this "being FTX proof")
    • TipLink (Send crypto to anyone, even if they don't have a wallet.)
    • Dialect (Alert stack for onchain activity)
    • Squads (Treasury management for onchain orgs / multisig (quorum based transaction execution.))
    • Akash (Decentralized, permissionless marketplace for compute)
    • Arweave (Decentralized file storage)
    • Mirror (Blogging platform, with content stored on Arweave.)
    • Farcaster (Decentralized social media network.)
    • MarginFi (Borrowing/lending protocol, 24/7 bank with real-time assets to liabilities dashboard (http://analytics.marginfi.com/)
    • Firedancer (High-performance distributed computing)

    Some recent auxiliary material:

    However, I think also that USDC on Solana is the killer app. A nearly instant settlement of machine programmable money, that costs fractions of a penny to send. As someone who has spent time with ACH, wires, BaaS, etc... nothing comes close to writing a few lines of code and being able to manage dollars for effectively no cost, with zero wait.

    More broadly, having a globally readable/writable state machine, that syncs as fast as physics allows (in the case of the Solana blockchain), with property enforced by cryptography, that operates 24/7 on open source, shared infrastructure is essentially a playground. Albeit, it is one that is scary to work in from a regulatory perspective. Ironically, you're less likely to get in trouble by being an anon launching a memecoin like HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu or a jpeg of a monkey, than you are to be legitimate company building a real product. Right now it can cost millions of dollars to lawyer up as a seed stage company in crypto (not hyperbole, I've seen investment rounds in the millions, where the investors were told 100% of the funds are purely going towards legal), my hope is that as the regulatory environment shifts, more people will feel comfortable engaging with this tech in a professional manner. Until then, speculation will be the major usecase. And I think that is okay, every major market needs speculators. Speculation has turned Las Vegas into a hotbed of innovation that now hosts a plethora of tech conferences, entertainment, experiments like boring company and The Sphere, and even the airforce. The majority of Las Vegas casino revenue is non-gambling.

    4 votes

  20. Comment on Wisconsin pension fund now includes bitcoin in ~finance

    BitsMcBytes
    Link Parent
    Yup, though I already have a generalized view of where the vol spread is for these assets, for me knowing the IV/RV is only necessary for options, for spot it matters much less. however I do see...

    Yup, though I already have a generalized view of where the vol spread is for these assets, for me knowing the IV/RV is only necessary for options, for spot it matters much less.

    however I do see knowing where the market is pricing vol via VVIX as important, along with where VIX and MOVE are, and synthesizing multiple data points like global macro, geopolitics, monetary policy, liquidity, sentiment, flows, etc.

    Another aspect is that if I already have a view that macro conditions are going to be favorable toward a certain asset class, such as gold, silver, copper, etc, I care less about how they are performing against the dollar (embedded in my thesis that these commodities would outperform the dollar already) and more about how these assets do against other assets I could have put my dollars in. Say my thesis is right about gold, and YTD GOLD is up 15% in dollar terms… well, if at the same time gold is down 50% in bitcoin terms… yes I might have been right in my gold thesis, but this trade is only a win if my frame of reference is dollars, and a massive loss if my frame of reference in bitcoin.

    1 vote