14
votes
Who's watching crypto at the moment?
Crypto has always been an odd one for me.
Considering I'm in the IT field and generally techy, I've always remained skeptical. That didn't stop me throwing about £100 into some DOGE, XRP and ETH awhile back. They peaked around $880 and I almost cashed out. I wish I had because they fell back and were worth around $140 for the longest while.
Suddenly it's sitting at around $400 and I'm wondering whether to hold my nerve or cash out.
Anyone big into crypto and have any advice?
I think it's like meme stocks; you can assume it will go up and down based on people's whims. Is that a fun game for you?
I dislike playing games that will complicate my taxes.
The amount you're dealing with is so small there is no wrong answer. At this point it's fun gambling. Sell it and buy yourself something fun or a nice dinner. At least that's what I would do. Let it ride if you want to chase that gambling high. That's not really my thing.
Crypto is great if you're a criminal organization that needs to move money.
Crypto is awful if you're the pumper.
Crypto is great if you're the dumper.
We already have regulated money and assets. Why do you want to mess around with unregulated money?
Cryptocurrency: game theory, but with your savings!
Isn't that all stocks though?
No, stocks isn’t zero sum, at least theoretically.
Simple question for every investment:
Why are you holding this?
Your money could be in a stock or something else, so why crypto? Why those coins? If you don't have more of an answer than "I think they'll go up" then I'd recommend cashing out.
Alternatively the only other way to asses such a situation is risk/reward somewhat like a actuarial table. What possible reward would justify the risk of losing it all to you? When will you 100% cash out? Is that threshold actually reasonable (for example if your dodge holdings were suddenly worth 100 million i'm sure you wouldn't mind cashing out, but given how much dodge is in circulation that's literally impossible without the economy breaking).
Finally there's the "well I think this thing will be useful" which is the theory behind normal stock investment. I'm suspicious of that given your Doge investment, but if for some reason you think XRP or ETH are destined for greatness, then what is that greatness, and again, when would you take profit.
These are the only real questions that can be asked in situations like this. Crypto has been out for around a decade and still hasn't seen mass adoption outside of being a secondary market asset, so it's not like someone is gong to magically discover it produces oil or has a huge use in nuclear reactors. The use cases have been heavily investigated and there are projects looking into some level of adoption, but it's not like this is stumbling into the Xerox office and seeing the first GUI.
To answer a little of this, I had a little bit of spare money and wanted to see what all the fuss was about.
I watched the ups and downs for awhile and someone said I should get a little XRP because there was a court case happening, after that then they should soar.
That never happened. I lost interest and saw it going up and down, but never really peaked where it had been, so I thought I'd hold out until things went up for a cash out.
With DOGE being pushed hard by Elon, Trump getting back in, crypto is heading back up. I've read some articles saying that BTC could hit over $600k a coin. Between the two, it stopped me cashing out.
And now I'm here asking how people feel about it.
Right. No one knows the future. People thought X would happen and Y would happen.
So the only thing you know is "are you ok losing it all/some of it" if it suddenly drops, and that's a personal risk tolerance. I've seen absolutely nothing concrete that would link to "yes holding now is good". Maybe trump/musk will somehow force crypto into the US economy/government, maybe they'll be at each others throats by the end of the first week and it'll all plummet.
My advice is to think of crypto as an expression of macro economics that intersects with technology and culture. The price action on an expanded time horizon tends to be a barometer of global liquidity. What was the macro economic backdrop when it peaked around $880 for you? I'm betting there was a significant amount of M2 money supply expansion and stimulus happening. On a shorter time horizon, the price actions is more on attention, which could be a mix of what the current cultural phenomenon is and what experience the underlying technology gives. Over the past few days your DOGE has been outperforming your XRP and your ETH. And all year your ETH underperformed SOL. What does this mean?
If it's good enough to screenshot, it's good enough to sell.
Unless you're fine losing it and risk it by gambling on higher returns of course.
But I can't tell you which one of the two you should choose.
I try not to, because I had a bitcoin in a wallet that I got by mining it in the very early days when it was little more than a curiosity. Said wallet is long gone.
Oh my. That is very sad and happened to many many people.