guamisc's recent activity

  1. Comment on A layperson's introduction to Thermodynamics, part 1: Energy, work, heat in ~science

    guamisc
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    I thankfully never had to take statics as a chemical engineer. One of my thermo professors said something like, "Chemical engineering almost never deals with static systems, if you want statics,...

    I thankfully never had to take statics as a chemical engineer. One of my thermo professors said something like, "Chemical engineering almost never deals with static systems, if you want statics, set the derivative to zero and solve it, next topic."

    1 vote
  2. Comment on A layperson's introduction to quantisation and spin, part 1 in ~science

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    Are there any other properties that correlate with spin, physical, quantum, or otherwise? If I somehow separated a large group of atoms by spin, would I be able to do fun and/or scientifically...

    Are there any other properties that correlate with spin, physical, quantum, or otherwise? If I somehow separated a large group of atoms by spin, would I be able to do fun and/or scientifically interesting things with them?

    3 votes
  3. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    Almost nobody? You mean like the majority of Democratically controlled states? The Democratic party across this country is trying to push various forms of same day voter registration, expansions...

    Almost nobody? You mean like the majority of Democratically controlled states? The Democratic party across this country is trying to push various forms of same day voter registration, expansions of voting days, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail initiatives and similar.

    I don't buy your reasoning or your stance, I'm sorry. It just seems like another version of "both sides are the same".

    we'd see suggestions on how to solve the problems listed in the article. But instead everyone just wants to mock them and say their problems aren't valid or they're not a good enough reason to complain.

    Hard Truth: The only way you're going to see solutions to these issues is with Democratically controlled governments (state and federal). Many of the complaints are valid, but they are not going to be solved by complaining about it on the internet or on the news, they will be solved by people caring enough to look at who may be advancing solutions to their issues right this very second (lots of Democrats).

    2 votes
  4. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    Link Parent
    I'm going to disagree with you and note that the data does not back up your assumptions of the voters.

    I'm going to disagree with you and note that the data does not back up your assumptions of the voters.

  5. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    Link Parent
    I mean, I'm one of those people and I actually interact with the ones you are decrying right here. Yeah, you'll get mocked for not voting, because that's essentially denying reality. Just because...

    I mean, I'm one of those people and I actually interact with the ones you are decrying right here.

    Yeah, you'll get mocked for not voting, because that's essentially denying reality. Just because you want something to be true or different doesn't mean it is. It's like being the political theory equivalent of an anti-vaxxer, the research proves you wrong, but you want so desperately to be something different because you don't like the inevitable conclusions that arise from reality.

    You're also not going to receive a favorable reaction from people who are involved and treat voting seriously when you tell them that you reject that very thing.

    4 votes
  6. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    Link Parent
    Two problems with your assumptions: Are those people voting on policy? No. They are voting on disgust and anger with the Trump administration. They are not craving more centrist policy....

    these "mythical independents" you're currently deriding are an increasingly large portion of the voting base and are the main basis by which democrats are on track to win by eight or nine points this year in the house and could potentially pull off a coup in the senate.

    Two problems with your assumptions:

    1. Are those people voting on policy? No. They are voting on disgust and anger with the Trump administration. They are not craving more centrist policy.

    2. Independents are only a growing voting block because fewer people are currently self-identifying as Republican. Hence the growing right-wing skew of self-identifying independents.

    I'm not going to quote large sections of your post but once again, show me the results. The Democratic party has been bending over backwards doing exactly what you describe for the past several decades. They haven't been in a weaker position than the current one in decades. They lost to Trump with this terrible strategy, there was never a larger contrast between someone being relatively centrist and appealing to independents vs a raging, extremist asshole. How can you continue to defend this strategy when it does nothing but lose what should be gimmie elections?

    the ones that literally need it to win, and have no other options. campaigns aren't stupid. they have more resources and access to data than any of us fuckers.

    Yeah, the appeal to authority you're making right here? I'm one of those authorities. Hi, nice to meet you.

    The problem is that they don't have resources. Useful voter outreach costs a lot of money, and only in this election and 2008 have they really had the money to do it. Guess what? Minority turnout is way up, young voter turnout is way up, first time voter turnout is way up, people are showing up for midterms that only vote in presidential elections.

    The problem will come if we don't have as money in 2022 and revert back to the bad and proven losing strategy of spending our meager resources on the mythical independents based on bad assumptions and proven-false theories about the electorate.

    2 votes
  7. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    The basis for your entire premise has been torpedoed for the last two decades, yet you refuse to give it up. If appealing to mythical "independents" and swing-voters actually worked, the Democrats...

    there's a reason why political independents, and not non-voters loom so large in american politics--it's easier, less expensive, and more productive to get people who vote out than it is to get people who don't out

    The basis for your entire premise has been torpedoed for the last two decades, yet you refuse to give it up. If appealing to mythical "independents" and swing-voters actually worked, the Democrats would crush every single election.

    There is plenty of data to show that the majority of swing voters are not ideologically motivated. They vote based on the relative charisma (likability, "have a beer with") of the candidates and their own feelings at the time, which aren't policy driven. The reason they loom so large in American politics is based on a bunch of people making the same incorrect and misleading assumptions about the American electorate; that they are essentially "centrists", and then the Democrats make really, really shitty electoral strategy off of that. This very common mistake, oddly also coincidentally empowers business interests and results in significantly more business friendly policy.

    There is a reason why field operations are so effective, they have the biggest effect/$ spent and they are basically the only method that registers and ability to turn a non-voter or an unlikely-voter into a voter.

    3 votes
  8. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I think you would have an extremely hard time with consent of the *governed in this system. edit: conference, governed, what's the difference? :D

    I think you would have an extremely hard time with consent of the *governed in this system.

    edit: conference, governed, what's the difference? :D

  9. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    ....Yet. I mean, that's how you enact real change, by changing the politico's minds.

    One state and a couple cities (like San Francisco) is barely anything. No Democrat is calling for federally mandated IRV.

    ....Yet.

    Yeah, I'm sure a bunch of rich fucks want to listen to some kid (relatively) talk about instant runoff voting and giving up their healthcare lobby money by passing Medicare for All.

    I mean, that's how you enact real change, by changing the politico's minds.

    3 votes
  10. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    This is horrifically bad political strategy. The most successful GOTV efforts are the ones who turn non-voters into voters. All in all, I think both of you (edward and you) are wrong. It's both...

    the burden ultimately isn't on parties to reach out to people who don't vote or engage.

    This is horrifically bad political strategy. The most successful GOTV efforts are the ones who turn non-voters into voters.

    All in all, I think both of you (edward and you) are wrong. It's both the party's and the voter's responsibilities. The Democratic party has stupidly been ignoring their duty for a while, but so have a ton of voters on the left.

    5 votes
  11. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    C'mon. That false equivalence isn't true: http://www.sunjournal.com/stark-divide-on-ranked-choice-voting/ Voting is not the only thing you need to do if you want change. It means getting involved...

    No, there are zero parties that would even begin to consider such legislation. Not even the most prominent progressives (like Bernie) have even mentioned something like instant runoff voting. And the lesser evil type Democrats would never be for it because they benefit from the lesser of two evils system.

    C'mon. That false equivalence isn't true: http://www.sunjournal.com/stark-divide-on-ranked-choice-voting/

    I would happily do so if there were any progressives on my primary ballot, but there weren't. If I were in the district of someone like AOC or Randy Bryce I'd be excited to vote for them.

    Voting is not the only thing you need to do if you want change. It means getting involved in your local party and changing it as well.

    6 votes
  12. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Those people were paying attention. All of "those" people that I know in real life and proclaim on the internet to support him like his honesty and sincerity. Bernie said at the very beginning of...

    Those people were paying attention. All of "those" people that I know in real life and proclaim on the internet to support him like his honesty and sincerity. Bernie said at the very beginning of the primary process that he was going to endorse whoever the Democratic candidate turned out to be. He made it quite clear what his intentions were. Do those people want Bernie to lie or were they not paying attention?

    2 votes
  13. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    There is not much evidence that there is a significant portion of voters that "swing" based on wanting centrist policy. Swing voters exist, but they largely vote based on candidate charisma and...

    There is not much evidence that there is a significant portion of voters that "swing" based on wanting centrist policy. Swing voters exist, but they largely vote based on candidate charisma and their own emotions, not policy.

    The entire "going after the centrist vote" is based on a very flawed and incorrect assumption about the makeup of the electorate and the characteristics of the average "swing" voter. It's a theory that doesn't hold up to reality, electoral outcomes, because it makes very wrong assumptions upfront. How the Democratic party hasn't figured this out after two decades of that model failing, I don't know (it's probably $$$ related).

    4 votes
  14. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    The ONLY way to get rid of the lesser of two evils voting is to change the voting system. And that pretty much necessitates a constitutional amendment. You must have the backing of one of the...

    The ONLY way to get rid of the lesser of two evils voting is to change the voting system. And that pretty much necessitates a constitutional amendment. You must have the backing of one of the major parties to even have a shot at doing what you want/need to do. There is only one party that would even begin to consider such legislation and it isn't the Republicans.

    So you can either make it easier for Republicans and assholes like Trump and McConnell to win, or you can join me in changing the Democratic party from the ground up.

    You're not punishing the Democrats by not voting for them, you're punishing yourself and the rest of us. Yes I hate the system just like you do, but until the system gets reformed you have to work inside of it. Sitting on the sidelines only fucks people like me who have similar aims to your own and yourself.

    10 votes
  15. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    That's exactly what Hillary is though. A left-wing liberal. Center-left (not much, but still left of center). Neoliberalism's hallmark policies are deregulation, privatization, and austerity -...

    "Left-wing" liberal is pretty much an oxymoron, liberals are center-left at best.

    That's exactly what Hillary is though. A left-wing liberal. Center-left (not much, but still left of center).

    Neoliberalism's hallmark policies are deregulation, privatization, and austerity - i.e. fellating the free-market. Those are not policies that Hillary champions. She is not a neoliberal.

    NAFTA and the TPP at their core are not bad policies. They just need to be paired with taxes levied on the big winners to take care of the big losers in those trade deals. Trade deals are generally good things, but only if they are fair to both business AND LABOR on both sides of the deals. NAFTA wasn't good at this and the TPP wasn't great either. Not passing the TPP though will have bad effects on the US in general, which sucks because it wasn't far off from being a decent trade deal (provided it was coupled with proper taxation of the winners domestically). It wasn't though and I have mixed feelings about it going down, but that's neither here nor there.

    Please realize that I basically straddle the line between Democratic Socialist and Social Democrat so it's not like you're talking to some centrist.

    4 votes
  16. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
    Link Parent
    That's just wholly untrue. Voting for the lesser of two evils is a fact of our voting system and is called being an adult. Every greater evil you put into office by doing nothing makes it that...

    That's just wholly untrue.

    Voting for the lesser of two evils is a fact of our voting system and is called being an adult. Every greater evil you put into office by doing nothing makes it that much harder for people who don't suck to get into office and actually accomplish some good while they are there.

    8 votes
  17. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    Sigh. Look, I downright loath neoliberalism. I hold the opinion that neoliberalism laid the foundation for much of the political and economic strife in the Western world that we see today. But...

    Sigh. Look, I downright loath neoliberalism. I hold the opinion that neoliberalism laid the foundation for much of the political and economic strife in the Western world that we see today.

    But Hillary is not a neoliberal, she is just a plain old left-wing liberal (actual meaning of words used here, not stupid US definitions). Yeah, many Democrats - Hillary included - have been far too nice to actual neoliberals. That economic philosophy should be entirely rebuked by now, but Democrats have been far too keen on compromise and being centrists.

    I agree that actual neoliberals should be opposed at every turn. But actual neoliberals that have been Democrats are people like that flaming shitbag Joe Lieberman, not Hillary.

    3 votes
  18. Comment on 12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote in ~misc

    guamisc
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    Only ~15% of people could reliably pass that test according to the studies quoted in Democracy for Realists. There is no such thing as an educated electorate because the opportunity cost is too...

    What I can offer is thought experiments. Suppose that every voter had to take a simple test associating positions with candidates and positions with anticipated outcomes issued by experts. In other words, voters have to demonstrate political knowledge to vote. Is Donald Trump President in this world? Are politics better or worse?

    Only ~15% of people could reliably pass that test according to the studies quoted in Democracy for Realists.

    There is no such thing as an educated electorate because the opportunity cost is too high to becoming an educated voter.

    3 votes
  19. Comment on Jair Bolsonaro, Far-Right Populist, Elected President of Brazil in ~news

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    Yup, neoliberalism's failure on the global scale plays out with people turning to right wing authoritarians.

    Yup, neoliberalism's failure on the global scale plays out with people turning to right wing authoritarians.

    3 votes
  20. Comment on Tucker Carlson Says He Can't Go to Restaurants Anymore in ~misc

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    I don't believe that. I believe that people who are decent members of society deserve such things. I don't believe that fascist agitators should be treated with all the deference in the world....

    I just don't believe anyone should be scared to dine out.

    I don't believe that. I believe that people who are decent members of society deserve such things. I don't believe that fascist agitators should be treated with all the deference in the world. Nobody has threatened him that I know of (yet), it has just been people expressing their opinion of him.

    If I was as poisonous to society as he is, I would completely understand lots of insults hurled my way when I went out in public. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.