heraplem's recent activity

  1. Comment on When it comes to USA's future, I'm failing to see any positive outcomes. Please help me. in ~society

    heraplem
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    No matter what we do, things will never be the same as they were. Europe will never again trust us to be a rock-solid promoter of liberal values and security guarantor.

    Then, in two years' time, the mid-terms will provide another opportunity for voters to swing the pendulum back toward the middle a bit -- or not. And then we can start the long, slow rebuilding process of restoring relations with our allies.

    No matter what we do, things will never be the same as they were. Europe will never again trust us to be a rock-solid promoter of liberal values and security guarantor.

    8 votes
  2. Comment on When it comes to USA's future, I'm failing to see any positive outcomes. Please help me. in ~society

    heraplem
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    This is absolutely not true. The neoreactionary intelligentsia love him.

    Nobody likes JD Vance

    This is absolutely not true. The neoreactionary intelligentsia love him.

    16 votes
  3. Comment on I'm alarmed by the apparent lack of an actual deep state in ~society

    heraplem
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    I don't think that this is an accurate characterization.

    Anything that was fraud or covert or just moronic (like most of it so far)

    I don't think that this is an accurate characterization.

    22 votes
  4. Comment on Who's afraid of Hasan Piker? in ~society

    heraplem
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    I don't like Hasan. I don't really have any rational reason---just, something about his vibe puts me off. But I heard it said recently, and it stuck with me, that a successful political movement...

    I don't like Hasan. I don't really have any rational reason---just, something about his vibe puts me off. But I heard it said recently, and it stuck with me, that a successful political movement needs to be broad enough to include some bad people. Am I willing to be in coalition with Hasan? Kind of, yeah, as long as Trump-style politics is an active threat. The liberal left is dangerously close to complete collapse. We need to be finding friends wherever we can. And Hasan is the only left-of-center voice on the Internet that comes close to matching the big boys of right-wing new media in terms of influence.

    This is all assuming he'd consider himself "in coalition" with me, which I somewhat doubt. My understanding is that he's nearly as critical of liberals as he is of the right (or perhaps even moreseo?), which would kind of make it impossible to form a coalition with him. One can imagine a future where he softens his rhetoric, but it would probably only happen if he could see himself gaining personally from the bargain. Well, the Dems might just have to do it. Like you say, as much as we may hate it, it might just be "the meta". Or, to quote this article, which was posted here recently:

    Accepting that this shift is permanent, in the sense that we can’t simply reverse it, is, I’m convinced, the only way forward. We are now either influencers or influenced. Trump and his cronies understand this acutely. The Democrats, clearly, still do not.

    15 votes
  5. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of February 17 in ~society

    heraplem
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    I have a bit of a more cynical take: in order to convert Trump voters (and, really, this probably applies to most people in varying degrees), you need to give them an offramp that doesn't require...

    There's a sympathy that he has that is very extremely rare among the left, especially if you look at social media, when it comes to people who have been misled by disinformation.

    I have a bit of a more cynical take: in order to convert Trump voters (and, really, this probably applies to most people in varying degrees), you need to give them an offramp that doesn't require them to admit that they were ever wrong. "You were lied to and they actually hate you" is more effective than "You made a horrible mistake and doomed us all, you awful person."

    9 votes
  6. Comment on The path to American authoritarianism - what comes after democratic breakdown in ~society

    heraplem
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    It's fucking insane to me that "The Cathedral" is a term of art among people with influence in the current administration. How many do you think know that it originated from a dispute over...

    It's fucking insane to me that "The Cathedral" is a term of art among people with influence in the current administration. How many do you think know that it originated from a dispute over governance styles in open-source software projects?

    7 votes
  7. Comment on The American physicians are healing themselves with Ozempic in ~health

    heraplem
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    Theoretically, yes. Empirically, most treatments (except for GLP-1 agonists) have very poor success rates. It might feel different because "free will", but that's not a scientific way to look at...

    I don't think it's correct to compare obesity and paraplegia. One is curable, the other is not.

    Theoretically, yes. Empirically, most treatments (except for GLP-1 agonists) have very poor success rates. It might feel different because "free will", but that's not a scientific way to look at things. The only thing that matters is outcome.

    Obesity isn't the actual problem, it's just a very obvious symptom of the problem (unhealthy eating habits) that has yet to be addressed.

    But GLP-1 agonists work by reducing appetite, which does address the underlying cause. Even if a person's diet is still nutritionally deficient, "merely nutritionally deficient" beats "nutritionally deficient and also too many calories" by a mile.

    (This comment does not apply to those who are taking it for diabetes, as there is a different primary goal for that use case.)

    Actually, it should, because one of the primary management strategies for type 2 diabetes is diet and weight loss. Many cases will essentially go into remission if controlled.

    4 votes
  8. Comment on Megathread - Elon Musk and US politics in ~society

    heraplem
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    Even if that's true, there's no guarantee things end well. I've seen a lot of smart people making comparisons to Orban's Hungary lately.

    as it stacks up and civil unrest inevitably becomes a thing(because really the shit Trump is doing in this term is even more extreme than the first) it gives the opposition massive ammo

    Even if that's true, there's no guarantee things end well. I've seen a lot of smart people making comparisons to Orban's Hungary lately.

    7 votes
  9. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of February 10 in ~society

    heraplem
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    I think it will be impossible to move the public opinion needle on this one until the photos of abuses start coming out. Unlike most of the random shit that Trump/Musk have done in the last three...

    I think it will be impossible to move the public opinion needle on this one until the photos of abuses start coming out. Unlike most of the random shit that Trump/Musk have done in the last three weeks (JFC), this is what Trump voters ostensibly voted for.

    I do think that they essentially want the impossible: cruelty-free mass deportations. When the cruelty becomes too much, they will turn. (I think.)

    5 votes
  10. Comment on The American Bar Association supports the rule of law in ~society

    heraplem
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    This seems rather shocking coming from the ABA, no? How often do they take anything like a political stance?

    This seems rather shocking coming from the ABA, no? How often do they take anything like a political stance?

    17 votes
  11. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of February 3 in ~society

    heraplem
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    IMO, it's actually quite bad, because it would presumably represent a revenue stream under the direct control of the Executive branch. This is consistent with the administration's pattern of...

    IMO, it's actually quite bad, because it would presumably represent a revenue stream under the direct control of the Executive branch. This is consistent with the administration's pattern of undermining Congress's power of the purse. I'm actually surprised that this has gotten so little attention.

    I would not be surprised if this EO were found to be unconstitutional on that basis (but, then, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it weren't found to be unconstitutional.)

    8 votes
  12. Comment on 50501: Nationwide US protest Feb 5th fifty states fifty protests one day in ~society

    heraplem
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    I'm not sure I agree. You don't need to spend time there. Just post. But I've been out of the mainstream social media game (except Reddit) for a long time, so maybe I have a bad understanding of...

    I'm not sure I agree.

    You don't need to spend time there. Just post.

    But I've been out of the mainstream social media game (except Reddit) for a long time, so maybe I have a bad understanding of how this stuff works.

  13. Comment on 50501: Nationwide US protest Feb 5th fifty states fifty protests one day in ~society

    heraplem
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    I think that, at least for now, we should give up our tendency to abandon platforms we don't like. It feels like cancelling them, and it could even work in different circumstances, but in these...

    While I dislike sending traffic to Reddit, my personal preferences there pale in comparison to the importance of this.

    I think that, at least for now, we should give up our tendency to abandon platforms we don't like. It feels like cancelling them, and it could even work in different circumstances, but in these circumstances, it's essentially deplatforming ourselves. We need to be spreading messages everywhere we can.

    12 votes
  14. Comment on Are we witnessing the takeover of a country right now? in ~society

    heraplem
    (edited )
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    Musk probably believes in this idea, and he may even be right that he could execute it (for a certain definition of "built right"). But there are several problems. Musk does not (or,...

    There is some legit merit in this. I've seen many times where someone just say "damn the consequences, chuck the whole thing out", and then a year or two later yes they're forced to rebuild, but this time it's built right or using more modern knowledge and practices rather than the decades of legacy debt.

    Musk probably believes in this idea, and he may even be right that he could execute it (for a certain definition of "built right"). But there are several problems.

    Musk does not (or, pessimistically, should not) have the power to unilaterally close government departments and withhold funds. Those powers belong to Congress, not the Executive branch. (And that's not even mentioning the fact that Musk's status as a government employee is dubious to begin with.) Setting a precedent that the Executive branch can just roll over Congress is EXTREMELY dangerous. If that idea becomes normalized, that's basically the end of the Republic, even if that wasn't the original goal.

    Aside from that foundational problem, Musk is simply the wrong person for the job.

    Everything I know about Musk suggests that he is extremely self-centered, unprincipled, and reckless. (That's probably a large part of how he got to where he is.) Such a person should not have control of the government and access to sensitive information.

    • He has no reason to be careful with the personal information of private citizens. In fact, he has every reason to keep it.
    • He has no qualms with lies and propaganda.
    • Even more than Trump, he can silence critics on the Web and bully potential Republican dissenters into silence by threatening to fund primary challengers with his essentially-unlimited wealth. He apparently can also just use the Justice Department as a weapon now.
    • What Musk would consider a "good" structure for the Federal government is probably something that would be good for him. It is probably not something that I would consider good. I do not believe that Musk has the best interests of the nation at heart.
    • If you recklessly try to restructure a company and it fails, well, that sucks, but life goes on. If you recklessly try to restructure the United States government and it fails, then ?????

    In conclusion, this is literally just the fall of the Roman Republic all over again. But this time, rather than plunder from conquered nations, it's the spoils of uncontrolled American industry that created individuals so wealthy and influential that they became unbound by the law. Even if Elon Musk has not decided to take it for himself outright (and I don't see why he wouldn't do that---as I said, he's incredibly reckless; he'll take whatever he can), it's only a matter of time before someone else does.

    26 votes
  15. Comment on Is there a reason that we aren't seeing pushback to US President Donald Trump's blitzkreig? in ~society

    heraplem
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    My guess is that the Republicans will overreach (and are overreaching), but substantial backlash from outside the Democratic core will come too late.

    My guess is that the Republicans will overreach (and are overreaching), but substantial backlash from outside the Democratic core will come too late.

    4 votes
  16. Comment on You can change ONE thing about a game. What do you change? in ~games

    heraplem
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    This actually has a much simpler solution, which has been implemented in remakes: make it so that the boots can be toggled via a button rather than only from the Start menu. Greatly improves the...

    This actually has a much simpler solution, which has been implemented in remakes: make it so that the boots can be toggled via a button rather than only from the Start menu. Greatly improves the experience.

    13 votes
  17. Comment on Besides Shawshank Redemption, what films do you like that feature grit, resilience, endurance under hostile circumstances? in ~movies

    heraplem
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    Whenever bad times come along, my first thought is always "I should reread/rewatch The Lord of the Rings."

    Whenever bad times come along, my first thought is always "I should reread/rewatch The Lord of the Rings."

    6 votes
  18. Comment on Does anyone want to talk about stocks/options? in ~finance

    heraplem
    Link Parent
    I literally just hold VT, which is (IIRC) a 60%-US 40%-international whole-market ETF.

    I literally just hold VT, which is (IIRC) a 60%-US 40%-international whole-market ETF.

    1 vote
  19. Comment on While signing Laken Riley Act, Trump says he’ll send ‘worst’ criminal migrants to Guantanamo in ~society

    heraplem
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    Everyone is freaking out over this, and not wrongly. However, all I can think of is: invoking Guantanamo Bay is deliberate, right? The Trump admin knows what Guantanamo Bay represents in the...

    Everyone is freaking out over this, and not wrongly.

    However, all I can think of is: invoking Guantanamo Bay is deliberate, right?

    The Trump admin knows what Guantanamo Bay represents in the American consciousness. They didn't choose it by accident. And they didn't openly announce it by accident, either.

    This was calculated. Either to cause a media frenzy and provoke a backlash, or to strike fear in the hearts of undocumented immigrants. Or perhaps both.

    8 votes
  20. Comment on The leading AI models are now very good historians in ~humanities.history

    heraplem
    (edited )
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    This is similar to my experience. I struggle to get useful information out of LLMs. I have a hypothesis for why this is: if I'm turning to an LLM for information, it's because searching on Google...

    This is similar to my experience. I struggle to get useful information out of LLMs.

    I have a hypothesis for why this is: if I'm turning to an LLM for information, it's because searching on Google has failed to yield satisfactory results. But if that's the case, then the LLM probably doesn't have a good answer in its training set, so it's unlikely to be able to help much.

    Something that I find really irritating about LLMs is that, in my experience, they really struggle to distinguish between important and non-important information. If I ask ChatGPT a question, the exact words I put in there significantly influence the output. But I'm not likely to know precisely what information is significant to the question when I don't know the answer! And I find that if I don't use the right "keywords", it will often fail to give me the correct answer. I've also found that it struggles to solve the XY problem.

    The best use-cases for LLMs that I've been able to find involve literally just churning out a bunch of text that requires more creativity than a macro system but not enough that I need to be super deliberate about it (e.g., writing a bunch of test cases, and even then that was just as a supplement to my own hand-written test cases, and even then some of the test cases had mistakes in them).

    I think that, unless there is a revolutionary advancement in the fundamental technology, the most significant use-cases for LLMs will involve fine-tuned models in specific applications, and even then there will probably need to be significant guardrails.

    9 votes