ylph's recent activity
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Comment on Joe Biden’s chances of US re-election are better than they appear in ~misc
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Comment on Fun fact: Taiwan claims exclusive sovereignty over mainland China and Mongolia as well as parts of Russia, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Japan in ~humanities.history
ylph LinkThis issue is a bit more complex and nuanced however. These territorial claims are left over from the original Republic of China constitution, which still forms the basis of the government of...- Exemplary
This issue is a bit more complex and nuanced however. These territorial claims are left over from the original Republic of China constitution, which still forms the basis of the government of modern Taiwan. ROC has in effect occupied Taiwan after it was given up by Japan at the end of WWII, and imposed a military and political dictatorship over the island that lasted for decades - part of it's policy at that time was a goal of reclaiming the former territory of the ROC which was lost to the PRC in the civil war.
Taiwanese people have managed to reform the political structure of their government and establish real democratic rule in the 1990s, however by then, the conflict between the PRC and ROC was frozen in a "status quo" state where both sides agreed to some (not well defined as it turns out) concept of "one China" with 2 competing claims over it's government, and PRC agreed not to pursue military options against Taiwan as long as ROC continued to maintain its historic claims over all of China, and did not pursue any steps towards further independence and forming of Taiwan as an entity independent of "China".
It is arguable if the ROC territorial claims ever reflected actual will of Taiwanese people - perhaps of the minority of mainland refugees (and occupiers) that have come to Taiwan when the ROC lost the civil war. Post 1990's vast majority of Taiwanese do not agree with these territorial claims - however, China has made it clear in the past that renouncing these historical claims would be seen as a step towards Taiwanese independence, and considered as Taiwan unilaterally breaking the "status quo", abandoning the "one China" principle (especially the Chinese interpretation of it) and thus justification for immediate military intervention by the PRC.
The existence of this threat is why in public opinion polls among Taiwanese, most choose the "maintain status-quo" option, even people who would prefer Taiwanese independence in an ideal world - most do not see any upside in unilateral breaking of the status-quo and provoking the PRC into possibly destructive course of action. This is why there is no active effort to remove any historical territorial claims from the ROC constitution - the claims are not actively pursued either however (with some exceptions mostly involving islands immediately surrounding Taiwan and some in the South China Sea)
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Comment on Where can I see Hokusai's Great Wave today? in ~arts
ylph Link ParentCheck out David Bull's youtube channel - he is a woodblock printmaker who lives in Tokyo and does a lot of interesting videos about the artform. He has whole series on making a copy of the Great...Check out David Bull's youtube channel - he is a woodblock printmaker who lives in Tokyo and does a lot of interesting videos about the artform. He has whole series on making a copy of the Great Wave starting here and goes into a lot of details and research on the subject - it's a pretty interesting rabbit hole.
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Comment on Rare look into revenue and costs of SpaceX in ~space
ylph Link ParentMany Falcon 9 launches have multiple customers and multiple satellites on board. They've done launches with 100+ different satellites in a single launch. Even the Starlink launches (with ~50...Many Falcon 9 launches have multiple customers and multiple satellites on board. They've done launches with 100+ different satellites in a single launch. Even the Starlink launches (with ~50 Starlink satellites) often have 1 or more customer satellites included in the payload to optimize capacity utilization.
If Vega or Minotaur were really competitive on price, you would expect more than 0 launches (with no more than 2 planned by each for the entire year, compared to 90+ planned Falcon 9 launches)
SpaceX have re-launched a booster 21 days after it landed (this time includes transportation - SpaceX claimed it only took 9 days to refurbish the booster for its next flight) The #1 and #2 most used boosters have been launched 16 times each so far, with 9 different boosters having been launched 10 or more times. I don't fully know what goes into the booster refurbishment process in between launches, but from what I do know, I don't think "torn down and rebuilt" is an accurate description.
But if what you are saying is true (launching with wasted capacity, not realizing any savings from reuse, etc.) then it is honestly even more impressive how successful and competitive the Falcon 9 program has been so far.
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Comment on Rare look into revenue and costs of SpaceX in ~space
ylph Link ParentFalcon 9 can carry 5-10 times the payload of a Vega or Minotaur rockets, they are not really comparable. There have been 53 Falcon 9 launches so far this year (50 of them using reused boosters) -...Falcon 9 can carry 5-10 times the payload of a Vega or Minotaur rockets, they are not really comparable.
There have been 53 Falcon 9 launches so far this year (50 of them using reused boosters) - 0 Vega launches and 0 Minotaur launches. Falcon 9 is basically dominating the commercial launch business right now, and I imagine the cost they offer their customers is a huge part of the reason for that.
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Comment on How does mutual fund pricing work when selling? in ~finance
ylph (edited )Link ParentLookup something called the "Boglehead" investment philosophy, and I would really recommend reading a good introductory book - see here or their wiki for some recommendations for example - it's...Lookup something called the "Boglehead" investment philosophy, and I would really recommend reading a good introductory book - see here or their wiki for some recommendations for example - it's really important to have at least some fundamental knowledge about things like different asset classes, types of risk and investment time horizons before putting money into the market.
Making rash moves in the markets is how people lose a lot of money - the Boglehead approach calls for spending some time beforehand understanding the basics and establishing a personal investment policy, finding out about your risk tolerance, investment time horizons and desired asset allocation, and a best way to stay on target and not getting affected by emotions, and rattled by short term market moves.
Both FZROX and CDs can be excellent in keeping up with inflation, depending on the situation, especially the time horizon and the interest rate environment. Both are exposed to different kinds of risks. If this is money you will need in the next 2-5 years, then CDs are likely the way to go right now - you can lock in a known yield, FDIC insured, and while there is no guarantee they will beat inflation over the next X years, but at the current rates and inflation trends they likely will. On the other hand money for retirement, especially if it's still decades out, probably shouldn't be in CDs, and FZROX is much more likely to significantly beat inflation over that time period - but it can experience much more dramatic swings both up and down during that time, and again, there is no guarantee.
The choice is not really trivial without understanding the risks involved, your own risk tolerance, and your investment objectives.
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Comment on How does mutual fund pricing work when selling? in ~finance
ylph Link ParentFZROX is a mutual fund - index funds can be either mutual funds, or exchange traded funds (ETFs) - ETF shares trade like stocks, but mutual fund shares do not - mutual fund trade orders entered...FZROX is a mutual fund - index funds can be either mutual funds, or exchange traded funds (ETFs) - ETF shares trade like stocks, but mutual fund shares do not - mutual fund trade orders entered during the day are executed at the end of the day at the closing NAV (net asset value - basically the sum of the closing prices of all the funds holdings for that day) of the fund.
Because of this, mutual funds are also only priced once a day, and then show the last price until the next change - for example all day Monday your holdings in a mutual fund will normally still show with the last Friday's closing price. If the market for some reason had a huge drop on Monday, you might not see it reflected in the mutual fund prices yet, and if you place a sell order on Monday, and have not been paying attention to the market, the eventual fill price at the end of the day may be much lower than expected.
Mutual funds are best suited for people who are not trying to time the market (which I would argue should be most individual investors) - worrying over intraday moves of broad stock indexes is not very productive, and trying to chase prices has at best zero expected return (it's very hard to predict the next moves of the stock market) - and usually negative expected return (due to various psychological/behavioral patterns, trading costs, adverse selection, etc.)
I would say it's totally fine to put a market sell order for an index mutual fund like FZROX at any point during the day for almost anyone holding that fund and not worry about the price or limit orders. Yes, the price can end up higher or lower when the order is eventually filled, but that is part of the risk of owning stocks and there is no easy or simple way to guarantee a better price - the price you will get will be as fair as you can hope for in the market (this is not necessarily always true for all ETFs or individual stocks, where you might have to worry about liquidity and avoid trading during certain times, which is why mutual funds are simpler and safer to use for people who do not necessarily have a lot of trading knowledge)
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Comment on What is your favorite TV show that you rewatch often? in ~tv
ylph LinkTwin Peaks for me, I rewatch it every 3-5 years, it feels like coming home. The 3rd season is probably the finest work of television ever produced.Twin Peaks for me, I rewatch it every 3-5 years, it feels like coming home. The 3rd season is probably the finest work of television ever produced.
No ? In 2016 Wikileaks released an e-mail from 2015 supposedly from the Clinton campaign (they never confirmed it was authentic, but also did not deny it) with a list of 80+ slogans they were supposedly testing/considering, and some of them were pretty terrible. Among them was "It's your time", "It's your turn", "It's about you" - but addressed to her voters, not herself.
Her actual official slogan ended up being "Stronger Together"
There was a book published in 2016 as well which was titled "My Turn: Hillary Targets the Presidency" - but it was a critique of Clinton and made a point that she should not be elected. But this was a common critique against her, that she acts "entitled" and like she is owed the position - not that she outright said "its my turn", "my time" or whatever.
But doesn't every presidential candidate act like this ? Seems like there is a very thin line between "confidence" and "arrogance" that has to be balanced by a presidential candidate in the US, and the difference in perception probably has more to do with charisma than anything else. Trump has exhibited far more arrogance and entitlement than Clinton, but it has never really been held against him the same way. There is probably an element of sexism here as well - as a female candidate, Clinton's attempts to act confident and assertive were likely perceived negatively by some who might interpret the same actions by a more typical old male candidate more positively. She just didn't seem to have enough charisma to overcome this handicap in perception, at least in my opinion (for example Obama always projected utmost confidence bordering on arrogance, and was often perceived as condescending, talking down to people - yet he was also very charismatic and used this very effectively to counter the negative impact of such perceptions, to his opponents great frustration)