48 votes

How soon might the Atlantic Ocean break?

Posted by DaveJarvis
Tags: ecosystems, oceans, atlantic, ocean currents, scientists, peter ditlevsen, susanne ditlevsen, author.sandra upson, source.wired, long read, paywall
https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/

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Title
How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? Two Sibling Scientists Found an Answer-and Shook the World
Authors
Sandra Upson, Kate Knibbs, Chris Baraniuk, Umair Irfan, Emily Mullin, Becky Ferreira, Reece Rogers, Steven Levy
Published
Jul 25 2024
Word count
6625 words

11 comments

  1. foxensly
    Link
    Useful analogy in the article: Very intersting historical tidbit: The scary prediction:

    Useful analogy in the article:

    TIPPING POINTS ARE absolutely everywhere. Throw water on a fire, and the flames will shrink but recover. Dump enough water on and you’ll cross a threshold and snuff it out. Tip a chair and it’ll wobble before settling back onto its four feet. Push harder, and it topples. Birth is a tipping point. So is death.

    Very intersting historical tidbit:

    In 1749, an English slave trader who was sailing off the western coast of Africa lowered a special bucket with valves and a thermometer into the water. He did this again and again, hauling up the bucket and noting the depths of the sample and the water’s temperature. He was surprised to find that deep water was always cold. His heat-weary crew immediately used the deep water to take baths and cool their drinks. From then on, other voyagers sporadically dropped buckets into the Atlantic and jotted down readings, either out of scientific curiosity or as a potential navigational aid—to identify a useful current or get a warning of icebergs ahead. They collected their data in many different places, depths, times of day. They also used all manner of buckets, thermometers, and units of measurement (Centigrade, Fahrenheit, Réaumur). The data was a mess. A century later a consortium of seafaring nations standardized the method of measurement. But it was only in the 1970s, when instrument-packed drifting buoys and weather satellites were deployed, that the temperatures of the seas were systematically recorded.

    The scary prediction:

    The siblings spent two years refining their approach, doing more tests. Across a thousand runs, the model cranked through the temperature data and settled on a year. Sometimes the model spat out later dates. Sometimes earlier. The two scientists made a plot of the numbers and a neat cluster emerged. Yes—2057. But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095.

    19 votes
  2. [7]
    davek804
    Link
    Boy. This was a harrowing read. And to end on the idea that the AMOC maybe have already tipped and we simply don't have enough data or understanding to know. Yikes.

    Boy. This was a harrowing read. And to end on the idea that the AMOC maybe have already tipped and we simply don't have enough data or understanding to know. Yikes.

    15 votes
    1. [6]
      Xyst
      Link Parent
      Did you, or has anyone else, seen what the potential impacts would be for North America? It looks like Europe, Asia, and the Tropics lose their farm land, but does that extend into North America...

      Did you, or has anyone else, seen what the potential impacts would be for North America? It looks like Europe, Asia, and the Tropics lose their farm land, but does that extend into North America as well?

      4 votes
      1. chocobean
        Link Parent
        Trouble is, humanity hasn't been around for that long, and we've "always" had the AMOC, and it's also not like we have comparisons with "when suddenly AMOC collapsed but ice caps, biodiversity and...

        Trouble is, humanity hasn't been around for that long, and we've "always" had the AMOC, and it's also not like we have comparisons with "when suddenly AMOC collapsed but ice caps, biodiversity and biomass, CO2 levels are all fine". Even if we had perfect records of the last time this happenesn AMOC, it might not be that relevant to what we will face given the other troubles.

        Nature, "The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency"

        Using observations and a coupled earth system model (GFDL-ESM2G), here we show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is associated with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) inferred from ocean observations.

        But that's only ten years. It's barely a blip.

        And then USGS:

        The Northern Hemisphere experienced abrupt cooling during the Younger Dryas, likely in response to changes in ocean circulation. The early Holocene provides a point of comparison because it was similar to the environmental conditions of today and occurred immediately after the Younger Dryas.

        Scientists found that storm activity was likely stronger during the Younger Dryas compared to the early Holocene near modern-day Florida

        Quick search turned up Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.gov, last revised as recently as July 2024. I haven't read through them all (please help) but scientists are looking at it super hard now. I'm interested to know too, because I live on the Atlantic coast.

        The world is very interconnected geopolitically, though, beyond what climate will do to us. If the bread baskets in Europe fail, America is going to see a lot higher food prices, a lot more immigrant applicants, and weaker trade partners / allies.

        9 votes
      2. [3]
        MimicSquid
        Link Parent
        Here's a map that shows the currents of the oceans as we know them. At the moment, warm water from the equatorial regions flows north along the East Coast, bringing warm, wet air from the ocean...

        Here's a map that shows the currents of the oceans as we know them. At the moment, warm water from the equatorial regions flows north along the East Coast, bringing warm, wet air from the ocean onto the cooler, drier land. While the prevailing winds won't be stopped by the absence of the Atlantic current, without it bringing the warm waters north it's entirely possible that the Midwest will be more arid. But on the plus side, if that's the case it might tamp down the hurricanes that have been getting worse with every passing year?

        7 votes
        1. [2]
          Xyst
          Link Parent
          Thanks. I saw the article mentioned that the warm zone would shift southward towards the equator and that some areas (e.g. rain forest) may see their rainy season invert, but where does the rest...

          Thanks.

          I saw the article mentioned that the warm zone would shift southward towards the equator and that some areas (e.g. rain forest) may see their rainy season invert, but where does the rest of the rain go?

          Those winds that bring rain to the Midwest, North east, and Europe...where does all that rain go after the collapse? Does it just stay over the ocean, or is the implication that it never evaporated and never becomes rain?

          5 votes
          1. MimicSquid
            Link Parent
            I think those are the big questions that everyone is struggling with. They're great questions, and these systems are so complex I don't know that anyone has answers yet.

            I think those are the big questions that everyone is struggling with. They're great questions, and these systems are so complex I don't know that anyone has answers yet.

            7 votes
      3. davek804
        Link Parent
        No, that wasn't directly discussed even though it was a long piece. The article did say a bit about the north east US changing quite a bit, due to the warming ocean waters.

        No, that wasn't directly discussed even though it was a long piece.

        The article did say a bit about the north east US changing quite a bit, due to the warming ocean waters.

        2 votes
  4. Metin
    Link
    Very interesting article, thanks for sharing.

    Very interesting article, thanks for sharing.

    3 votes
  5. Eric_the_Cerise
    Link
    I'm not sure if they explicitly mentioned it, or if anyone else noticed ... this Wired article was published exactly one year after their original scientific paper was published -- July 25, 2023.

    I'm not sure if they explicitly mentioned it, or if anyone else noticed ... this Wired article was published exactly one year after their original scientific paper was published -- July 25, 2023.