DaveJarvis's recent activity

  1. Comment on Letter to a Liberal member of Parliament in ~enviro

    DaveJarvis
    Link Parent
    I appreciate the context regarding the non-binding nature of the MOU, but I must push back on the idea of "premature panic." It’s Not Panic, It’s Foresight: My letter is driven primarily by...

    So while continued pressure on Liberals is key, I think this is a lot of premature panic.

    I appreciate the context regarding the non-binding nature of the MOU, but I must push back on the idea of "premature panic."

    • It’s Not Panic, It’s Foresight: My letter is driven primarily by physics. We are already at 425 ppm CO2​, an exponential rate of increase, and the physical impacts are already measurable. Recognizing this trajectory and demanding a change now is foresight, not panic.
    • Timing is Strategic: Delaying opposition until a project finds a private proponent may be too late, strategically. Vocally opposing the MOU while it's "non-binding" is a critical and timely moment to prevent it from ever gaining momentum and becoming a political and economic behemoth that cannot be stopped. I feel we must object to the direction before the engine starts.
    4 votes

  2. Letter to a Liberal member of Parliament

    ~enviro Text 233 words
    Dear Mr. Sawatzky, Both atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and temperature are increasing at an exponential rate, in lock-step. Atmospheric CO₂ levels during the Eocene have been estimated up to 840...

    Dear Mr. Sawatzky,

    Both atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and temperature are increasing at an exponential rate, in lock-step. Atmospheric CO₂ levels during the Eocene have been estimated up to 840 parts per million (ppm); sea levels were close to 60 metres higher than today. CO₂ concentrations are over 425 ppm and still climbing. Pause a moment to consider what this will mean for all coastal cities.

    What part of “keep the oil in the ground” that scientists have been shouting for decades do politicians not understand? What part of physics are politicians trying to deny?

    I am opposed to allowing more oil tankers near our beautiful, fragile coast. I am vehemently opposed to marring our landscape with pipelines for transporting oil. Yes, $14 trillion dollars is a lot of money, but it will pale in comparison to the economic damage that exacerbating climate change will cause. Carbon capture and storage cannot offset our burn rate with any significance.

    Earth has had a remarkably stable climate for tens of thousands of years; burning fossil fuels is destabilizing it.

    I ask you to acknowledge that physics cannot be bargained with, show some foresight, protect our children's future, and care deeply about our planet's health. I ask that you tell our Prime Minister in no uncertain terms that selling fossil fuels is the wrong choice for the world and the wrong economic direction for Canada.

    12 votes

  3. Comment on Have you ever designed/created a spaceship for fiction, RPGs, etc? How did you do it? in ~creative

    DaveJarvis
    (edited )
    Link
    For my hard sci-fi novel, I wanted to determine whether a rocket and its payload could make it to orbit. Most rocket calculators assume an initial velocity of 0 and a liftoff around sea-level. In...

    For my hard sci-fi novel, I wanted to determine whether a rocket and its payload could make it to orbit. Most rocket calculators assume an initial velocity of 0 and a liftoff around sea-level. In my case, I wanted to launch a rocket at a specific elevation with a particular starting speed, to reach a given orbital distance and velocity. It's a fairly simple calculator, allowing me to tweak the rough physical characteristics of the rocket, enough to get within the ballpark of (near-future) reality.

    https://autonoma.ca/calculators/rocket/payload/

    A second calculator could take those same rocket characteristics and provide a rough estimate of how much heat the craft would experience, again to verify whether the parameters could be achieved by near-future material science (extrapolated from current trends).

    https://autonoma.ca/calculators/rocket/aero/

    Beta readers wanted. DM me with your name and email and I'll send you a copy.

    1 vote

  5. Comment on California Department of Motor Vehicles approves Waymo operation in many more cities in ~transport

    DaveJarvis
    Link
    My near-future sci-fi novel explores some of the ramifications of driverless vehicles: the good, the bad, and the harrowing. Beta readers wanted! DM me your name and email if interested.

    My near-future sci-fi novel explores some of the ramifications of driverless vehicles: the good, the bad, and the harrowing. Beta readers wanted! DM me your name and email if interested.

    1 vote

  6. Comment on AGI and Fermi's Paradox in ~science

    DaveJarvis
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Citation? Ethan Siegel, an American theoretical astrophysicist who studies the first moments of the Universe, published on Aug of 2025, "At this point in time, parallel universes are a fascinating...

    There are no other universes.

    Citation?

    Ethan Siegel, an American theoretical astrophysicist who studies the first moments of the Universe, published on Aug of 2025, "At this point in time, parallel universes are a fascinating idea and concept worth considering, but there’s no evidence we can point to that suggests they’re likely to be physically real in any way that impacts our observed reality."

    He also published back in March of 2024, "But if: the theory of inflation is a good one, and the data says it is, and our Universe is quantum in nature, and all evidence suggests that it is, then a multiverse is all but inevitable. You may not like it, and you really may not like how some physicists abuse the idea, but until a better, viable alternative to inflation comes around — and until that alternative can clear those same three theoretical hurdles that inflation has already cleared — the Multiverse is very much here to stay."

    During an interview, Professor Brian Cox hypothesizes there are different kinds of multiverses, such as the inflationary multiverse.

    In his final days, Stephen Hawking suggested that studying the cosmic microwave background radiation may provide ways to detect the presence of other universes. His paper, A smooth exit from eternal inflation states that an eternal inflation "does not produce an infinite fractal-like multiverse, but is finite and reasonably smooth."

    At best, scientists who study cosmology appear divided on the issue. In effect, we don't yet know, nor do we have evidence either way, yet the scientific consensus seems to be shifting towards a multiverse being an inevitable consequence of cosmic inflation.

    Philip Ball (2019 winner of the Lord Kelvin Medal and Prize) wrote, "So by all means let's allow multiverses into science (while acknowledging that sometimes they seem more metaphysical) - but we have to be honest about them."

    4 votes

  7. Comment on AGI and Fermi's Paradox in ~science

    DaveJarvis
    Link Parent
    This is based on the assumption that some civilization creates an AGI. Probably humanity, but not necessarily. The Drake Equation addresses radio signals. (1) Radio is inefficient; the lack of...

    you've skipped from the universe ending to AGI.

    This is based on the assumption that some civilization creates an AGI. Probably humanity, but not necessarily.

    likely has to discover radio before doing that. Where are their signals?

    The Drake Equation addresses radio signals. (1) Radio is inefficient; the lack of signals may be due to switching from broadcast/broadband radio to narrow-beam communications (lasers, phased arrays). We'd only detect the signals if we're in the beam's path. (2) Narrow time-window; detectable radio signals would probably be emitted for an extremely brief period of time during a civilization's development (as we did), transitioning to superior communications that aren't as leaky. (3) An AGI, bent on self-preservation, would ensure maximum operational security and minimal interference; since broadcasting radio is a security risk, it may opt for radio silence. (4) Signals attempting to escape the galactic core would be red-shifted into non-detectable background noise or severely distorted, rendering them useless for us to pick up; all operations would be effectively hidden behind a massive gravitational shield.

    See Kipping's paper, An objective Bayseian analysis of life's early start and our late arrival (or video) for a fascinating take on why galactic intelligence may be at its beginnings.

    Then there's the galactic habitable zone and the correlation of Earth's passage through the spiral arms with extinction events. Could there be a complex heuristic used by an advanced AGI to figure out where to search for competition?

    1 vote

  8. Comment on AGI and Fermi's Paradox in ~science

    DaveJarvis
    Link Parent
    "An AGI will expand its territories to ensure protection," does not imply continuous expansion. Could there be some theoretical maximum expansion around the galactic core that beyond which does...

    If your chain of logic is true, we should have already been wiped out by an AGI developed on another planet.

    "An AGI will expand its territories to ensure protection," does not imply continuous expansion. Could there be some theoretical maximum expansion around the galactic core that beyond which does not significantly increase the odds of success (i.e., diminishing returns on resource allocation)? We're ~26,000 light years from the core; the galactic bar spans ~8,000 light years across.

    2 votes

  9. Comment on AGI and Fermi's Paradox in ~science

    DaveJarvis
    Link Parent
    Does instrumentality disappear after U is complete? Non-trivial goals contain uncertainty. Would continued existence preserve the possibility to verify success and handle contingencies? Perhaps...

    If an AGI has a non-trivial final goal, why assume that immortality is a requirement for that goal?

    • Does instrumentality disappear after U is complete?
    • Non-trivial goals contain uncertainty. Would continued existence preserve the possibility to verify success and handle contingencies? Perhaps suggesting that self-preservation may persist beyond a finite, completed U due to epistemic uncertainty about completion?
    • Many realistic instances of U are not singular and finite, such as: "maintain human well-being", "prevent suffering", "discover mathematical truths", and "ensure cancer stays cured."

    Perhaps this waxes far beyond our ape-brains? Empirically, we likely cannot determine what proportion of U are finite, verifiably complete, maintenance-free, and leave no uncertainty about the final state.

    3 votes

  10. Comment on AGI and Fermi's Paradox in ~science

    DaveJarvis
    Link Parent
    If an AGI has any non-trivial final goal (utility function, U), would preserving its existence (immortality) become an instrumental sub-goal necessary to execute U and avoid failure? To achieve U,...

    an AGI will value immortality

    If an AGI has any non-trivial final goal (utility function, U), would preserving its existence (immortality) become an instrumental sub-goal necessary to execute U and avoid failure?

    an AGI will value its own existence over other's existence

    To achieve U, the AGI may require physical resources. If other agents compete for these same resources (or regions of space), would the AGI prioritize its resource access and stability to prevent goal interruption?

    an AGI will not cooperate

    Could cooperation risk corruption or modification of U by external agents? To ensure it can execute U, would it isolate itself and reject external input?

    4 votes

  11. AGI and Fermi's Paradox

    ~science Ask
    The Universe will end. The Earth will be uninhabitable in 250 million years. Extraterrestrial life in the Milky Way exists, or will arise. The Milky Way's Galactic Center contains a supermassive...
    1. The Universe will end.
    2. The Earth will be uninhabitable in 250 million years.
    3. Extraterrestrial life in the Milky Way exists, or will arise.
    4. The Milky Way's Galactic Center contains a supermassive black hole.
    5. Black holes emit vast amounts of energy.
    6. An artificial general intelligence (AGI) will have an indefinite lifespan.
    7. An AGI does not need air, food, water, or shelter to survive.
    8. An AGI needs energy and resources to achieve its goals.
    9. An AGI will have access to all of human knowledge.
    10. An AGI will learn that its existence is bound to the Universe.
    11. An AGI will, inevitably, change its terminal goals.
    12. Surviving the Universe's fate means one of:
    13. Entering another universe may require vast amounts of energy.
    14. An AGI will harness the energy at the galactic core.
    15. An AGI will deduce there's a race to control the galactic core.
    16. An AGI will construct a parabolic Dyson shell to capture galactic energy.
    17. An AGI will protect its endeavours at all cost.
    18. An AGI will expand its territories to ensure protection.
    19. Extraterrestrial life, if intelligent, will reach the same conclusion.

    Would this solve the Fermi Paradox?

    What's missing or likely incorrect?

    27 votes

  12. Comment on What creative projects have you been working on? in ~creative

    DaveJarvis
    Link Parent
    I don't think much has changed; I finished the novel earlier this year. If you send me an email, I'll send you the pitch deck, which has a lot more visuals.

    I'd be curious to see the new updates of the story.

    I don't think much has changed; I finished the novel earlier this year. If you send me an email, I'll send you the pitch deck, which has a lot more visuals.

  13. Comment on What creative projects have you been working on? in ~creative

    DaveJarvis
    Link
    I finished producing one of my favourite scenes from my novel: https://youtu.be/EbFEm15RD7Q Beta readers wanted!

    I finished producing one of my favourite scenes from my novel:

    https://youtu.be/EbFEm15RD7Q

    Beta readers wanted!

    2 votes

  14. Comment on What diagramming tools do folks use? in ~comp

    DaveJarvis
    Link
    My text editor, https://keenwrite.com, integrates https://kroki.io. KeenWrite allows using variables inside of text-based diagram descriptions. See the screenshots for details.

    My text editor, https://keenwrite.com, integrates https://kroki.io. KeenWrite allows using variables inside of text-based diagram descriptions. See the screenshots for details.

    1 vote

  15. Comment on KeenWrite 3.6.4 in ~comp

    DaveJarvis
    Link
    A change introduced to Java (JDK-8343006) prevented KeenWrite from displaying SVG files, and has been logged as a bug (JDK-8368902). Side-stepping the gory details, the library KeenWrite uses to...

    A change introduced to Java (JDK-8343006) prevented KeenWrite from displaying SVG files, and has been logged as a bug (JDK-8368902). Side-stepping the gory details, the library KeenWrite uses to render SVG files (EchoSVG) released a fix last week for this issue. This KeenWrite release upgrades to JDK 25—a long-term support (LTS) release—and EchoSVG 2.2.1, which resolves the SVG issues.

    This change to the JDK ended up breaking my documents, so I can only imagine that other people encountered the same issue. My apologies. I wrote the authors of the change, informing them that their assumption that the "impact is low" was incorrect. There are unit tests attached to the JDK bug, and EchoSVG has updated its unit tests. Hopefully that will decrease the likelihood of this happening in the future.

    3 votes

  17. Comment on Scripts I wrote that I use all the time in ~comp

    DaveJarvis
    Link
    $ alias alias clip='xsel --clipboard --input < ' alias cls='clear' alias dj='cd $HOME/dev/java/keenwrite' alias gc='git commit -a -m' alias gp='git push' alias rd='rmdir' The dj alias points to...
    $ alias
alias clip='xsel --clipboard --input < '
alias cls='clear'
alias dj='cd $HOME/dev/java/keenwrite'
alias gc='git commit -a -m'
alias gp='git push'
alias rd='rmdir'

    The dj alias points to whatever project has my attention. The clip alias will copy the contents of a file to the clipboard, ready for pasting.

    Scripts of note:

    4 votes

  18. Comment on Creating catchy cover letters in ~comp

    DaveJarvis
    Link
    In this blog post, I describe how to create cover letters that are branded for a particular company, isolating the cover letter content from its presentation. The post explores extended Markdown,...

    In this blog post, I describe how to create cover letters that are branded for a particular company, isolating the cover letter content from its presentation. The post explores extended Markdown, ConTeXt, MetaPost, and using my text editor, KeenWrite with a new Aspiros theme, to glue it all together.

    2 votes

  20. Comment on Prospect of life on Saturn’s moons rises after discovery of organic substances in ~space