11 votes

Topic deleted by author

11 comments

  1. [12]
    Comment deleted by author
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    1. [11]
      teaearlgraycold
      Link Parent
      Even as a well-paid software engineer I feel like I need to win the lottery to comfortably buy a home I'd like to own.

      Even as a well-paid software engineer I feel like I need to win the lottery to comfortably buy a home I'd like to own.

      8 votes
      1. [11]
        Comment deleted by author
        Link Parent
        1. [2]
          Comment deleted by author
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          1. stu2b50
            Link Parent
            Yeah, I'm not sure about the 2008 comparisons. In 2008 there was a lot of house flipping by individuals by taking mortgages from banks and selling the house for a profit and paying off the balance...

            Yeah, I'm not sure about the 2008 comparisons. In 2008 there was a lot of house flipping by individuals by taking mortgages from banks and selling the house for a profit and paying off the balance on the mortgage at the same time.

            Currently, while interest rates have been low, banks have still been cautious about signing off on mortgages (hence all the posts about how they can't get a mortgage with X credit score and Y income and have to rent forever etc etc). Variable rate interest mortgages have also become pretty unpopular.

            I am somewhat doubtful that there'd be a crash. If you actually live in your house, and the value of your house plummets... your property taxes go down I guess? You feel fomo?

            Maybe cooling off as other assets take the limelight.

            5 votes
        2. [3]
          PahoojyMan
          Link Parent
          Agreed. The heat death of the universe means this is completely false. The housing market must eventually decline.

          "Priced out forever" is meant to play on your emotions. Nothing is forever.

          Agreed. The heat death of the universe means this is completely false. The housing market must eventually decline.

          5 votes
          1. [2]
            j3n
            Link Parent
            Has that ever meaningfully happened in the United States? Aside from a relatively minor blip in 2008, it certainly hasn't in my adult lifetime.

            The housing market must eventually decline.

            Has that ever meaningfully happened in the United States? Aside from a relatively minor blip in 2008, it certainly hasn't in my adult lifetime.

            2 votes
            1. MimicSquid
              Link Parent
              In some areas even 2008 didn't decrease the cost of homes being sold, it merely stopped the increase for a year.

              In some areas even 2008 didn't decrease the cost of homes being sold, it merely stopped the increase for a year.

              2 votes
        3. [4]
          NaraVara
          Link Parent
          I think this advice is going to be very geographically dependent. There are many places where values are inflated, but in regions like the Bay Area or the whole Acela corridor the issue is truly...

          I think this advice is going to be very geographically dependent. There are many places where values are inflated, but in regions like the Bay Area or the whole Acela corridor the issue is truly just that they haven’t built enough of the types of places people want to live in, so the places that do exist are super duper expensive.

          5 votes
          1. [4]
            Comment deleted by author
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            1. [3]
              MimicSquid
              Link Parent
              Yeah, my friends who work service jobs in the Bay Area are universally unable to afford even a studio apartment without a second salary or other funds. That said, their support networks are here...

              Yeah, my friends who work service jobs in the Bay Area are universally unable to afford even a studio apartment without a second salary or other funds. That said, their support networks are here and they don't have as much money, and so they've mostly hunkered down, cut other expenses, live in communal situations, or accept hour+ commutes. The friends who have been moving away are those in a more middle class economic range who can afford to move: programmers, financial professionals, wealthier retirees, etc.

              3 votes
              1. [3]
                Comment deleted by author
                Link Parent
                1. [2]
                  MimicSquid
                  Link Parent
                  Two things: If you look at the numbers released by the US Census, geographic relocation has dropped significantly in the last 20 years. Yes, people have been leaving their support networks...

                  Two things:

                  1. If you look at the numbers released by the US Census, geographic relocation has dropped significantly in the last 20 years.

                  2. Yes, people have been leaving their support networks forever. However, your statement seems to imply that the people who aren't moving are in some way not making rational choices given their own socioeconomic conditions when they choose to stay. Is that what you meant?

                  3 votes
                  1. [2]
                    Comment deleted by author
                    Link Parent
                    1. MimicSquid
                      Link Parent
                      I'm not complaining about it when I explain the situation as it exists for my peers. I'm describing the pressures they are experiencing and the relative attributes of the people who do and do not...

                      I'm not complaining about it when I explain the situation as it exists for my peers. I'm describing the pressures they are experiencing and the relative attributes of the people who do and do not move. I'm glad that you're in a situation where you can pick up and move when a place no longer suits you, but it's frustrating that it leaves you willing to criticize people who can't or don't make the same choices you can and do.

                      2 votes
        4. [2]
          skybrian
          Link Parent
          On the other hand, there may be a downturn that doesn't last, like in 2008. If so, home owners who aren't overextended and don't need to sell would still be okay. It seems like under those...

          On the other hand, there may be a downturn that doesn't last, like in 2008. If so, home owners who aren't overextended and don't need to sell would still be okay. It seems like under those circumstances, the bigger risk is losing your job.

          Also, local conditions vary even in a downturn. Some real estate markets got hit a lot harder than others.

          2 votes
          1. [2]
            Comment deleted by author
            Link Parent
            1. NaraVara
              Link Parent
              I think the key indicator there is that AZ is a big retiree hotspot. FL is too and it was also hit hard by the crash. I think if your housing market has this dynamic where it attracts a lot of...

              I think the key indicator there is that AZ is a big retiree hotspot. FL is too and it was also hit hard by the crash. I think if your housing market has this dynamic where it attracts a lot of people from outside, whose wealth and expectations diverge significantly from the norm in the area, it will have such a distortionary effect.

              I would expect a similar dynamic in vacation hotspots like beach towns or skiing towns. A lot of the market gets taken up with second homes and investment properties.

              6 votes