Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) last July was met with international outcry. Ukraine’s allies and its food-importing trade partners feared a worst-case scenario for global food security and for Ukraine’s economy, with its farmers once again unable to export via Ukraine’s deepwater Black Sea ports. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stressed that “there’s no possible way, just mathematically, we’re going to get as much grain out now as we were going to be able to get out through the grain deal if it had been extended.”
These worst-case scenarios have not played out. Global food prices, including grain prices, maintained a steady decline into 2024, in part due to increased agricultural exports from Ukraine. In mid-August 2023, following the cessation of the BSGI, Ukraine announced the Ukrainian corridor, a route passing through the territorial waters of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s member states of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, which has enabled Ukraine to resume high volume shipments of agricultural products since October 2023.
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[T]he high volume of agricultural products departing Ukraine through the corridor reflect the export of grains and oilseeds whose export had been delayed due to the war, and not the production and export of a greater amount of product than pre-war.
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Ukraine’s future exports are therefore expected to decline from current levels due to reduced and occupied farmed area, damaged or destroyed production facilities, and the fact that Ukraine has exported most of the stocks that were built up during the early months after the invasion.
From the article:
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