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Title
Ukraina staje się krajem ludzi straumatyzowanych
Authors
Patrycja Wieczorkiewicz, Paulina Siegień, Michał Sutowski, Agnieszka Wiśniewska, Katarzyna Przyborska, Paulina Januszewska, Janis Warufakis, Tomasz S. Markiewka, Agata Popęda
Translation: The Ministry of Health has created an interactive map showing where to get help. Rehabilitation centres for soldiers are being set up. Police officers, firefighters, teachers and...
Translation:
The Ministry of Health has created an interactive map showing where to get help. Rehabilitation centres for soldiers are being set up. Police officers, firefighters, teachers and family doctors are being trained in psychological first aid. The latter provided psychological assistance to more than 17,000 people in the first half of the year. Death, separation from loved ones, constant air raid alerts and, at the same time, embracing everyday life. Despite the full-scale war that has been going on for a year and a half, Ukrainian women and men are returning to their homes. Millions of them will experience mental health crises.
On Friday evening, the streets in the centre of Dnipro, a city of one million in central Ukraine, people walk, meet in parks, restaurants or clubs. The occasional sirens and mobile shelters set up in many places are a reminder of the war and the fighting just 100 km away. During the day, people take shelter in them not from bombs, but from the heat.
On one of the main streets, a man in military clothes approaches a group of laughing young people. - You are having fun, and I was almost killed at Bachmut," he shouts in Russian and shoves one of the boys. Passers-by drag the soldier away, and after a while the police appear. The towns are empty by approx. 23 - one must return home before curfew.
Sadness, apathy, fear, but also anger or aggression can be symptoms of chronic stress, explains Olga Yudina, head of the Kyiv-based organisation UA Mental Help, which has been offering free psychological support since the invasion began. - The most vulnerable are veterans, their families, children, refugees, people with disabilities, people who have lost loved ones or been injured, but various ailments can appear in anyone.
According to the World Health Organisation, as a result of the war, 9.6 million people in Ukraine may suffer from depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder or schizophrenia.
Returns
There is heavy traffic at the pedestrian border crossing in Medyka. Waiting in line are Ukrainian soldiers returning from Germany, a group of children finishing their summer camps in Poland and refugees going to visit relatives and see their homes. - It is easier in summer. Electricity, water and everything functions almost normally," says one soldier. So many people go to Ukraine during the holidays that train tickets from Poland are sold out until the end of September.
Many are returning permanently. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) reports that 4.8 million refugees had decided to do so by June. Most returned to Ukraine from Poland.
'My children haven't seen their father and grandparents for a year,' says Maria, a young woman with two toddlers hanging around her neck, whom I meet in the queue for the border. - I was alone in Poland because my husband couldn't leave and my parents didn't want to leave home.
Maria is from Pokrovsk, a mining town in the Donbass lying 40 kilometres from Avdiyivka, over which fighting is now taking place. - There, life looks normal. Shops and factories are working, and a rocket could fall on Lviv too, she convinces me, but she herself seems to have doubts.
Apart from the Transcarpathian region, where there is not even a curfew, Russian rockets are hitting all parts of Ukraine. However, localities close to the frontline or the Russian border are additionally exposed to artillery shelling and S-300 missile attacks, against which alarms are unable to warn.
'War ruins the normal course of life and takes away simple things like being together with your family or raising your children in a safe place,' stresses Anna Waszczuk, a psychologist at UA Mental Help. - People want to live a normal life, even if it entails risks, and they no longer put off anything for tomorrow, because that tomorrow may not be there.
Stigmatisation
Natalia Tkachenko wonders if she will see her home in Mariupol again.- 'The flat was ransacked, but the block is still standing,' says a 40-year-old woman I meet at the Ja Mariupol aid centre in Dnipro.There are 17 such sites in Ukraine, designed for refugees from the city.Natalia spent three weeks in besieged Mariupol.She managed to evacuate with her husband and children, but her brother's family was not so lucky. - 'A bomb fell on a block of flats and buried them alive,' she says in a breaking voice.- The children ask me why the Russians are doing this to us, but I cannot answer.
At the centre, people can get material help, spend time together, get professional, legal and psychological advice.A year ago, a support group was launched, but initially it was not popular.- People said they didn't need it because they were normal," says Natalia.Before 2022, the use of psychological help was not common in Ukraine and often meant stigmatisation. - In the word psychologist, people often hear 'psycho' or confuse psychologist with psychiatrist," says Olga Yudina.
Since the beginning of the invasion, nearly 5,000 people have turned to the UA Mental Help Foundation for help. - All they have to do is fill in a form or make a phone call," explains Yudina. - People from all parts of the country and of all ages come to us. Recently, a 90-year-old man came forward.
51 per cent of the UA Metal Help Foundation's clients are using a psychologist for the first time in their lives. - Many people are breaking through, but educational activities are still badly needed, Yudina stresses.
Civilian cars shot and burnt by the Russians, collected in a car park on the road connecting Kiev and Bucha. Photo: Piotr Malinowski
Survival strategy
Underground garages, metro stations, basements of blocks of flats, passageways under streets or mobile reinforced concrete structures set up at bus stops - all these places function as shelters.You should go down to them as soon as you hear the sirens. The ones in Dnipro howl very often, but nobody pays attention to them.
At night I put stoppers in my ears and sleep, because how many sleepless nights can one endure?- asks Sasha, a friend with whom I am staying in Dnipro. The 42-year-old works for an international humanitarian organisation.- 'It's impossible to respond to all the alarms, because you would have to sit in a shelter all the time,' he says.
Alarms are triggered when rockets or bombers come from Russia. Nearly 400,000 Dnipro residents follow a channel on Telegram to report when an alarm is 'serious' and something is directly threatening their city.
For some, ignoring alarms is a survival strategy, says Anna Vashchuk. - 'Our consciousness tries to defend us from constant stress, because the human body is not able to function that way for long.
On Ukraine's Independence Day, a Russian rocket hit a bus station in Dnipro, injuring 10 people. Since the beginning of the year, 65 residents have been killed and 200 injured in attacks. - Statistically, the risk is low, Sasha argues. - Just you don't ignore the alarms and avoid bridges, as Russians often target them.
Invisible wounds
The lawn at Independence Square in Kiev is strewn with hundreds of small flags.
Most are Ukrainian, there is no shortage of Belarusian and Georgian ones, and there are also some Polish ones.On each is the name, surname or nickname of a fallen soldier. Next to it walks the mascot of the Patron's dog, with which, for a few hryvnias, you can have your photo taken.
I am returning from the front, and here life is going on quite normally," says A., a 33-year-old soldier from one of the Belarusian volunteer battalions. He asks not even to give his name for security reasons. - I am happy, because it means that our work makes sense," he adds.
A. graduated in Slavic studies in Poland, was active in the anarchist movement for years and has never been in the army. Today, after a year and a half, he commands the service of a 120 mm mortar battery and fights in various places across the front line. Among other things, he took part in a landing attempt near Novaya Kakhovka.
'It can be very intense, but it also happens that we sit idle in position for days,' he says. - People cope with stress in different ways.Someone drinks or takes drugs, and I always have a few books with me. Some I read twice.
She admits that there are days when she can hardly control her nerves.- Someone won't give up their seat for an elderly person, won't hold the door, or looks the wrong way," she says. - It doesn't take much for me to explode.
Soldiers and veterans often complain about the lack of understanding from society and loved ones. There are cases of domestic violence. - Families fear that their husbands or fathers will change, says Anna Waszczuk. - Returning from the frontline is a difficult process of adjusting to a completely different reality.
Adaptation is not facilitated by the excessive idealisation of soldiers as tough and superhumanly strong. - There is no room for weakness in such an image," Waszczuk believes. - Not all wounds are visible, and soldiers are ordinary people who have the right to anger, sadness or tears.
Being together
With the return of the population, Dnipro is once again bustling with life. Including the 150,000 IDPs, there are now more than a million people living in the city. - 'We stayed in the first safe place,' says Natalia Tkachenko. - After liberation, we want to return home as soon as possible.
Sasha tried to return to Mariupol to bring food and medicine to his parents, but also to try to convince them to evacuate. - They insisted they would not leave. They miss Soviet times and still believe that Russia wants good things for them.
At a blockpost near Berdyansk, Sasha was stopped by Russians. They took his car and told him to return on foot. - It was still winter. I survived because someone agreed to give me a lift.
Life returns not only to the big cities, but when there is a chance of stability, also to small towns close to the front. - Often a few kilometres away from the places where we are fighting, people live, go to work, you can see children on the streets," says A.
According to IOM estimates, apart from the Kiev region, the largest number of refugees have returned home to the east of the country. - 'I don't plan to go to Poland anymore, because how much can you live without family and with strangers,' Maria stresses. - If we are to die, at least we will be together until the end.
A constant threat
If you are constantly looking at death, razed villages, cemeteries full of fresh graves, there is no way that it won't leave some kind of mark in your mind," thinks A.
He recently started therapy. - The contact to the psychologist was given to me by a friend who noticed that things were going badly with me," he says. - Whether you get help depends on what kind of commander you have and whether there is someone in the unit who cares.
Natalia can't say when she last felt happy. She no longer has problems sleeping, but she doesn't allow herself to smile. - 'When I go home and bury my brother, maybe then I'll find peace,' she says.
Many people feel remorseful about feeling joy during the war, says Anna Waszczuk. - We explain to them that their feelings are completely normal. It is the war that is not normal.
Psychologists stress that the biggest challenge is that people are constantly confronted with threats to their lives. - 'We try to show them the resources they have to take care of their mental health, but also teach them how to deal with stress themselves and how to relax,' says Waszczuk.
Pretending to be normal
According to research conducted by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, up to 90 per cent of the country's population has had at least one of the symptoms of chronic stress since the beginning of the invasion. - Not everyone will experience a mental health crisis, but everyone should know how to deal with such a situation, emphasises Anna Vashchuk.
The Ukrainian authorities are trying to catch up with the mental health system. Olena Zelenska initiated the national mental health programme and the campaign How do you feel? The Ministry of Health has created an interactive map showing where to get help. Rehabilitation centres are being set up for soldiers. Police officers, firefighters, teachers and family doctors are being trained in psychological first aid. The latter provided psychological assistance to more than 17,000 people in the first half of the year.
Comprehensive measures are needed at family, community and state level, including social and psychological support, education and prevention, Olga Yudina enumerates. - Sometimes even one consultation can help a lot.
We get used to the risk and pretend it's normal," says Sasha. - Otherwise you can just go out of your mind.
**
Piotr Malinowski - journalist and activist, publishes in "Gazeta Wyborcza", Onet.pl, Slovenian weekly "Mladina", among others. He is co-author of the documentary film Putin's Hostages.
In addition to this issue, I'm quite worried about whatever happens to Ukraine on the other end of this conflict. It's pretty clear the country and its government are likely to survive at this...
In addition to this issue, I'm quite worried about whatever happens to Ukraine on the other end of this conflict. It's pretty clear the country and its government are likely to survive at this point, though it's not clear what its territorial control will be. But you're going to end up with a country full of emotionally scarred people, many of whom are already seemingly sympathetic to extremely right-wing and ethno-nationalist politics. They're heavily armed, battle hardened, and experienced with self-organizing military opposition. If there isn't an extremely smart rescue and transition plan I can see some major political and social instability here with violent crime and black market dealing run amok, sort of like the US/Mexican border where the American drug trade has flooded it with enough money and guns to make it utterly lawless.
A few days ago I watched this video by RealLifeLore about why Russia isn't actually collapsing. Economically, the sanctions were imposed by Western powers and allies, but Russian oil and natural...
A few days ago I watched this video by RealLifeLore about why Russia isn't actually collapsing. Economically, the sanctions were imposed by Western powers and allies, but Russian oil and natural gas still has other buyers. Militarily, entrenched positions in Russia-occupied areas are difficult to retake. Ukraine lacks air power to bomb these positions. With winter approaching I imagine this is only going to get harder. Despite suffering more casualties, Russia still has a much larger population to muster soldiers from and they seem to be increasing defense spending.
It's a drawn-out tragedy, and even after the war ends (however it ends) the trauma will be generational, but Ukrainian resilience is inspiring.
So while Russia isn't literally collapsing into a failed state, I think the setbacks from this conflict basically mean its days as a big geopolitical force are over. In particular the brain drain...
A few days ago I watched this video by RealLifeLore about why Russia isn't actually collapsing.
So while Russia isn't literally collapsing into a failed state, I think the setbacks from this conflict basically mean its days as a big geopolitical force are over. In particular the brain drain and depopulation of its skilled workforce as well as the restrictions on importation of cutting edge technology means its economy is in for some very hard times. That's the sort of industrial base that's hard to build up, the USSR shed a lot of blood to make it happen the first time around, and back then they had a bigger supply of bodies to throw at the meat-grinder of industrialization than they do now.
Over the course of this century I expect them to be fully eclipsed in Central and East Asia by China until they essentially become a dependent vassal, similar to how the Central Asian republics were to Russia until recently.
While the effects on Russia are very real in the short and medium term, I think it's a stretch to say that they'll be eclipsed by Central Asia over the century. Russia is only going to become a...
While the effects on Russia are very real in the short and medium term, I think it's a stretch to say that they'll be eclipsed by Central Asia over the century. Russia is only going to become a more and more relevant country as the climate warms (larger swaths of livable land and arable land, access to fresh water, access to basically half the Arctic). The brain drain issue is also not nearly as much of a problem in the Internet age; when your best scientists leave, they're not taking the science with them. I fully expect Russia to recover from this in the long term and our foreign policy should be extremely cognizant of that reality
Who is trucking that water around? Simply sitting on top of it doesn't do them any good. The Middle East sits on top of the oil reserves that make the current world go 'round, but they don't call...
Russia is only going to become a more and more relevant country as the climate warms and access to fresh water becomes increasingly precarious.
Who is trucking that water around? Simply sitting on top of it doesn't do them any good. The Middle East sits on top of the oil reserves that make the current world go 'round, but they don't call the strategic shots, they just become the battleground where bigger fish call the shots that structure their lives.
I don't think you can make a direct comparison to the Middle East. The West had a large role in geopolitics of the Middle East because of colonialism, and the fact that these areas were usually...
I don't think you can make a direct comparison to the Middle East. The West had a large role in geopolitics of the Middle East because of colonialism, and the fact that these areas were usually barely populated and lacked expertise so the rulers in place relied on Western oil companies to discover and extract their oil. The relationship between OPEC and the West is also much more mutually beneficial than you're giving it credit.
I'll say China will have a huge role in Central Asian politics for similar reasons. They have the technology, manpower (though rapidly shrinking), and geopolitical clout to throw weight around....
I'll say China will have a huge role in Central Asian politics for similar reasons. They have the technology, manpower (though rapidly shrinking), and geopolitical clout to throw weight around. Russia's recession from all of this will make it hard for them to compete.
Translation:
The Ministry of Health has created an interactive map showing where to get help. Rehabilitation centres for soldiers are being set up. Police officers, firefighters, teachers and family doctors are being trained in psychological first aid. The latter provided psychological assistance to more than 17,000 people in the first half of the year. Death, separation from loved ones, constant air raid alerts and, at the same time, embracing everyday life. Despite the full-scale war that has been going on for a year and a half, Ukrainian women and men are returning to their homes. Millions of them will experience mental health crises.
On Friday evening, the streets in the centre of Dnipro, a city of one million in central Ukraine, people walk, meet in parks, restaurants or clubs. The occasional sirens and mobile shelters set up in many places are a reminder of the war and the fighting just 100 km away. During the day, people take shelter in them not from bombs, but from the heat.
On one of the main streets, a man in military clothes approaches a group of laughing young people. - You are having fun, and I was almost killed at Bachmut," he shouts in Russian and shoves one of the boys. Passers-by drag the soldier away, and after a while the police appear. The towns are empty by approx. 23 - one must return home before curfew.
According to the World Health Organisation, as a result of the war, 9.6 million people in Ukraine may suffer from depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder or schizophrenia.
Returns
There is heavy traffic at the pedestrian border crossing in Medyka. Waiting in line are Ukrainian soldiers returning from Germany, a group of children finishing their summer camps in Poland and refugees going to visit relatives and see their homes. - It is easier in summer. Electricity, water and everything functions almost normally," says one soldier. So many people go to Ukraine during the holidays that train tickets from Poland are sold out until the end of September.
Many are returning permanently. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) reports that 4.8 million refugees had decided to do so by June. Most returned to Ukraine from Poland.
Maria is from Pokrovsk, a mining town in the Donbass lying 40 kilometres from Avdiyivka, over which fighting is now taking place. - There, life looks normal. Shops and factories are working, and a rocket could fall on Lviv too, she convinces me, but she herself seems to have doubts.
Apart from the Transcarpathian region, where there is not even a curfew, Russian rockets are hitting all parts of Ukraine. However, localities close to the frontline or the Russian border are additionally exposed to artillery shelling and S-300 missile attacks, against which alarms are unable to warn.
Stigmatisation
Natalia Tkachenko wonders if she will see her home in Mariupol again.- 'The flat was ransacked, but the block is still standing,' says a 40-year-old woman I meet at the Ja Mariupol aid centre in Dnipro.There are 17 such sites in Ukraine, designed for refugees from the city.Natalia spent three weeks in besieged Mariupol.She managed to evacuate with her husband and children, but her brother's family was not so lucky. - 'A bomb fell on a block of flats and buried them alive,' she says in a breaking voice.- The children ask me why the Russians are doing this to us, but I cannot answer.
At the centre, people can get material help, spend time together, get professional, legal and psychological advice.A year ago, a support group was launched, but initially it was not popular.- People said they didn't need it because they were normal," says Natalia.Before 2022, the use of psychological help was not common in Ukraine and often meant stigmatisation. - In the word psychologist, people often hear 'psycho' or confuse psychologist with psychiatrist," says Olga Yudina.
Since the beginning of the invasion, nearly 5,000 people have turned to the UA Mental Help Foundation for help. - All they have to do is fill in a form or make a phone call," explains Yudina. - People from all parts of the country and of all ages come to us. Recently, a 90-year-old man came forward.
51 per cent of the UA Metal Help Foundation's clients are using a psychologist for the first time in their lives. - Many people are breaking through, but educational activities are still badly needed, Yudina stresses.
Civilian cars shot and burnt by the Russians, collected in a car park on the road connecting Kiev and Bucha. Photo: Piotr Malinowski
Survival strategy
Underground garages, metro stations, basements of blocks of flats, passageways under streets or mobile reinforced concrete structures set up at bus stops - all these places function as shelters.You should go down to them as soon as you hear the sirens. The ones in Dnipro howl very often, but nobody pays attention to them.
Alarms are triggered when rockets or bombers come from Russia. Nearly 400,000 Dnipro residents follow a channel on Telegram to report when an alarm is 'serious' and something is directly threatening their city.
On Ukraine's Independence Day, a Russian rocket hit a bus station in Dnipro, injuring 10 people. Since the beginning of the year, 65 residents have been killed and 200 injured in attacks. - Statistically, the risk is low, Sasha argues. - Just you don't ignore the alarms and avoid bridges, as Russians often target them.
Invisible wounds
The lawn at Independence Square in Kiev is strewn with hundreds of small flags.
Most are Ukrainian, there is no shortage of Belarusian and Georgian ones, and there are also some Polish ones.On each is the name, surname or nickname of a fallen soldier. Next to it walks the mascot of the Patron's dog, with which, for a few hryvnias, you can have your photo taken.
A. graduated in Slavic studies in Poland, was active in the anarchist movement for years and has never been in the army. Today, after a year and a half, he commands the service of a 120 mm mortar battery and fights in various places across the front line. Among other things, he took part in a landing attempt near Novaya Kakhovka.
She admits that there are days when she can hardly control her nerves.- Someone won't give up their seat for an elderly person, won't hold the door, or looks the wrong way," she says. - It doesn't take much for me to explode.
Soldiers and veterans often complain about the lack of understanding from society and loved ones. There are cases of domestic violence. - Families fear that their husbands or fathers will change, says Anna Waszczuk. - Returning from the frontline is a difficult process of adjusting to a completely different reality.
Adaptation is not facilitated by the excessive idealisation of soldiers as tough and superhumanly strong. - There is no room for weakness in such an image," Waszczuk believes. - Not all wounds are visible, and soldiers are ordinary people who have the right to anger, sadness or tears.
Being together
With the return of the population, Dnipro is once again bustling with life. Including the 150,000 IDPs, there are now more than a million people living in the city. - 'We stayed in the first safe place,' says Natalia Tkachenko. - After liberation, we want to return home as soon as possible.
Sasha tried to return to Mariupol to bring food and medicine to his parents, but also to try to convince them to evacuate. - They insisted they would not leave. They miss Soviet times and still believe that Russia wants good things for them.
At a blockpost near Berdyansk, Sasha was stopped by Russians. They took his car and told him to return on foot. - It was still winter. I survived because someone agreed to give me a lift.
Life returns not only to the big cities, but when there is a chance of stability, also to small towns close to the front. - Often a few kilometres away from the places where we are fighting, people live, go to work, you can see children on the streets," says A.
According to IOM estimates, apart from the Kiev region, the largest number of refugees have returned home to the east of the country. - 'I don't plan to go to Poland anymore, because how much can you live without family and with strangers,' Maria stresses. - If we are to die, at least we will be together until the end.
A constant threat
He recently started therapy. - The contact to the psychologist was given to me by a friend who noticed that things were going badly with me," he says. - Whether you get help depends on what kind of commander you have and whether there is someone in the unit who cares.
Natalia can't say when she last felt happy. She no longer has problems sleeping, but she doesn't allow herself to smile. - 'When I go home and bury my brother, maybe then I'll find peace,' she says.
Psychologists stress that the biggest challenge is that people are constantly confronted with threats to their lives. - 'We try to show them the resources they have to take care of their mental health, but also teach them how to deal with stress themselves and how to relax,' says Waszczuk.
Pretending to be normal
According to research conducted by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, up to 90 per cent of the country's population has had at least one of the symptoms of chronic stress since the beginning of the invasion. - Not everyone will experience a mental health crisis, but everyone should know how to deal with such a situation, emphasises Anna Vashchuk.
The Ukrainian authorities are trying to catch up with the mental health system. Olena Zelenska initiated the national mental health programme and the campaign How do you feel? The Ministry of Health has created an interactive map showing where to get help. Rehabilitation centres are being set up for soldiers. Police officers, firefighters, teachers and family doctors are being trained in psychological first aid. The latter provided psychological assistance to more than 17,000 people in the first half of the year.
Comprehensive measures are needed at family, community and state level, including social and psychological support, education and prevention, Olga Yudina enumerates. - Sometimes even one consultation can help a lot.
We get used to the risk and pretend it's normal," says Sasha. - Otherwise you can just go out of your mind.
**
Piotr Malinowski - journalist and activist, publishes in "Gazeta Wyborcza", Onet.pl, Slovenian weekly "Mladina", among others. He is co-author of the documentary film Putin's Hostages.
In addition to this issue, I'm quite worried about whatever happens to Ukraine on the other end of this conflict. It's pretty clear the country and its government are likely to survive at this point, though it's not clear what its territorial control will be. But you're going to end up with a country full of emotionally scarred people, many of whom are already seemingly sympathetic to extremely right-wing and ethno-nationalist politics. They're heavily armed, battle hardened, and experienced with self-organizing military opposition. If there isn't an extremely smart rescue and transition plan I can see some major political and social instability here with violent crime and black market dealing run amok, sort of like the US/Mexican border where the American drug trade has flooded it with enough money and guns to make it utterly lawless.
A few days ago I watched this video by RealLifeLore about why Russia isn't actually collapsing. Economically, the sanctions were imposed by Western powers and allies, but Russian oil and natural gas still has other buyers. Militarily, entrenched positions in Russia-occupied areas are difficult to retake. Ukraine lacks air power to bomb these positions. With winter approaching I imagine this is only going to get harder. Despite suffering more casualties, Russia still has a much larger population to muster soldiers from and they seem to be increasing defense spending.
It's a drawn-out tragedy, and even after the war ends (however it ends) the trauma will be generational, but Ukrainian resilience is inspiring.
I have little to add. Here is a video about daily life in Ukraine during the war by Geography Now.
So while Russia isn't literally collapsing into a failed state, I think the setbacks from this conflict basically mean its days as a big geopolitical force are over. In particular the brain drain and depopulation of its skilled workforce as well as the restrictions on importation of cutting edge technology means its economy is in for some very hard times. That's the sort of industrial base that's hard to build up, the USSR shed a lot of blood to make it happen the first time around, and back then they had a bigger supply of bodies to throw at the meat-grinder of industrialization than they do now.
Over the course of this century I expect them to be fully eclipsed in Central and East Asia by China until they essentially become a dependent vassal, similar to how the Central Asian republics were to Russia until recently.
While the effects on Russia are very real in the short and medium term, I think it's a stretch to say that they'll be eclipsed by Central Asia over the century. Russia is only going to become a more and more relevant country as the climate warms (larger swaths of livable land and arable land, access to fresh water, access to basically half the Arctic). The brain drain issue is also not nearly as much of a problem in the Internet age; when your best scientists leave, they're not taking the science with them. I fully expect Russia to recover from this in the long term and our foreign policy should be extremely cognizant of that reality
Who is trucking that water around? Simply sitting on top of it doesn't do them any good. The Middle East sits on top of the oil reserves that make the current world go 'round, but they don't call the strategic shots, they just become the battleground where bigger fish call the shots that structure their lives.
I don't think you can make a direct comparison to the Middle East. The West had a large role in geopolitics of the Middle East because of colonialism, and the fact that these areas were usually barely populated and lacked expertise so the rulers in place relied on Western oil companies to discover and extract their oil. The relationship between OPEC and the West is also much more mutually beneficial than you're giving it credit.
I'll say China will have a huge role in Central Asian politics for similar reasons. They have the technology, manpower (though rapidly shrinking), and geopolitical clout to throw weight around. Russia's recession from all of this will make it hard for them to compete.